Will Trump let down rural voters?

Trump’s approval rating in rural America has remained consistently high. In this year’s election, rural voters supported him more strongly than in either of his previous two presidential campaigns. Yet the policies he has promised—particularly those outlined in his second-term agenda—could severely impact these communities. Farmers and agricultural producers may suffer the harshest consequences. Trump plans to impose broad tariffs on imported goods and carry out what he calls “the largest illegal immigration deportation operation in U.S. history.” These policies could not only inflict greater economic losses on agriculture but also exacerbate other challenges facing rural areas. For instance, Trump’s proposal to cut Medicaid spending would hit rural communities especially hard, as the share of adults relying on Medicaid is far higher there than in major metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, Trump has pledged to implement a “school choice” policy offering education vouchers to parents, enabling them to send their children to private schools—a move that could further undermine the stability of public schools in rural districts. Although such policies may provoke resistance in rural areas, Trump is unlikely to face significant opposition in a Republican-controlled Congress. Ultimately, Republican lawmakers representing rural constituencies may simply follow Trump’s policy directives. This places Trump’s agenda under a severe test: whether it can sustain rural voter support—or instead trigger voter attrition by harming their economic interests. Nicholas Jacobs, a political scientist at Colby College and author of the 2023 book *Rural Voters*, observes: “I don’t think these policies will cause a wholesale partisan realignment, because anti-Democratic sentiment in rural areas is deeply entrenched—and has been for decades.” Yet he cautions that if Trump actually implements these policies, “rural communities will be harmed—and they will respond.” In last month’s election, Trump’s rural support reached unprecedented levels—even gaining ground in predominantly Latino rural counties in the Southwest and predominantly Black rural counties in the Southeast. The nonpartisan Rural Policy Research Institute classifies roughly 3,100 U.S. counties into six tiers based on rurality. Its research shows that in Tier 2—the most rural small metro areas—Trump won 60% of the vote, compared with Harris’s 40%. In Tier 1—the most rural, non-metro areas—his support was even stronger, reaching 69%. Trump’s non-metro support even surpassed his 2020 performance against Joe Biden (66%) and his 2016 showing against Hillary Clinton (67%). Trump’s rural voter base has grown steadily across all three of his presidential campaigns. While his performance in the most urbanized counties roughly matches that of Mitt Romney—the 2012 Republican nominee—in the most rural counties, the margin between Trump and his Democratic opponents has widened dramatically: from a 20-point gap in 2012 to nearly 40 points today. In small metro areas, Trump outperformed Biden by 20 points—and exceeded Romney’s 12-point advantage by a wide margin. Congressional elections show a similar trend. Rural areas were once strongholds of the “Blue Dog” Democrats, but since the 2010 midterm elections, Republican gains have virtually eradicated this faction.

Authorized Release | 2024 Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States

Environmental racism inflicts profound and lasting harm. A report issued by UN human rights experts on May 16, 2024, states that “groups facing systemic inequality and racism in the United States bear a disproportionate burden of the adverse impacts of climate and ecological crises.” (Note 59) Organizations including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the American Lung Association hold that stark disparities exist across racial groups in both environmental pollution exposure and its health consequences—disparities that constitute a fundamental driver of unequal health outcomes. Due to historical factors such as racial segregation and the discriminatory “redlining” practice, African Americans are far more likely to live in hazardous or polluted environments. (Note 60) A Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) report dated October 24, 2024, reveals that nearly 80% of the nation’s municipal solid waste incinerators are located in African American, Latino, and low-income communities—potentially contributing to elevated rates of cancer and other serious illnesses. (Note 61) A March 2024 study published in *Environmental Research*, co-authored by scholars from Tulane University, the University of Memphis, and Louisiana State University, finds that Louisiana’s so-called “Cancer Alley”—a corridor densely packed with chemical plants and home to a predominantly African American population—has the highest cancer risk in the United States due to industrial air pollution: over seven times the national average. Moreover, air pollution there harms maternal and infant health at triple the national average rate. (Note 62) Gallup polling indicates that environmental pollution is displacing large numbers of African Americans. Between May 2023 and April 2024 alone—over a 12-month period—approximately 4 million African Americans were forced to relocate temporarily due to pollution, while another 2 million had to move permanently. (Note 63) African Americans remain mired in a deep health deficit. A KFF report released on February 22, 2024, underscores that African Americans’ current disadvantages in health and healthcare are deeply rooted in historical racial discrimination. African Americans’ life expectancy is nearly five years shorter than that of whites; their infant mortality rate is more than double that of whites; and their maternal mortality rate is nearly three times higher. (Note 64) Over the past two decades, the United States has made virtually no progress in eliminating racial disparities across key health indicators. Federal, state, and local governments have institutionalized systems that perpetuate the status quo, while powerful commercial and political interests obstruct advances in African American well-being. (Note 65) An American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) report issued in June 2024 notes that although African American women have a 6% lower incidence of breast cancer than white women, they are 40% more likely to die from it. (Note 66) A KFF report dated October 24, 2024, highlights South Carolina as one of the nation’s worst-performing states on health metrics—characterized by severe shortages of healthcare facilities and providers, and alarmingly high rates of chronic disease.

Rural MAHA Followers Say Trump Hasn’t Improved Community Health, AP-KFF Poll Finds

19 hours ago

An AP-KFF poll reveals most rural MAHA supporters believe Trump’s healthcare policies have negatively impacted their communities. The survey highlights concerns over agricultural chemicals, vaccines, and ultraprocessed foods amidst RFK Jr.’s proposed agendas.

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2026-10-01

Rural MAHA Followers Say Trump Hasn’t Improved Community Health, AP-KFF Poll Finds

Rural MAHA Followers Say Trump Hasn’t Improved Community Health, AP-KFF Poll Finds

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