After four years of war between Russia and Ukraine, which side is in a more difficult position?

(Note: 1. Kpler, founded in 2014, is a globally renowned commodity data and market analysis firm. It leverages satellite imagery, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) for ships, and proprietary algorithms to track in real time global maritime trade flows and inventories of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), petrochemicals, and dry bulk commodities. 2. Gasoil (also known as 'gas oil') is a mid-distillate fraction obtained during crude oil distillation (boiling point range approx. 200°C–350°C), situated between kerosene and lubricating oils. It is primarily used for heating large boilers, power plant generators, large vessels, and heavy industrial machinery. In Europe and international shipping/trade, it is also commonly used directly as unrefined or light diesel fuel.) 2. Naphtha exports According to a Reuters report dated August 4, citing market sources and LSEG Data, Russia’s naphtha exports declined by 35% month-on-month to 800,000 tonnes in July. (Note: LSEG Data—part of the London Stock Exchange Group—is one of the world’s largest providers of financial market data, analytics tools, and breaking news. It was formerly the Financial & Risk division of Thomson Reuters (i.e., Refinitiv), and was integrated into LSEG as a core data brand following its acquisition.) 3. Exports of dark petroleum products In July, dark petroleum products—fuel oil and vacuum gas oil (VGO)—accounted for approximately 60% of Russia’s seaborne petroleum product exports. According to LSEG data, total exports of these two products fell roughly 21% month-on-month to about 2.3 million tonnes. 4. Refined petroleum product export bans In response to the sharp decline in refined product output, and to prioritize domestic supply of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, the Russian government introduced successive export bans on these fuels in March and July 2026. (1) On March 31, 2026, Russia announced a four-month ban on gasoline exports, effective April 1 through July 31. On July 30, the government extended the ban until January 31, 2027. (2) On June 1, 2026, Russia imposed an aviation fuel export ban, initially valid until November 30; on July 30, this ban was likewise extended to January 31, 2027. (3) On July 8, 2026, Russia announced a comprehensive diesel export ban effective through July 31. Previously, such restrictions had applied only to traders; this new ban extended to Russian producers themselves. On July 30, Russia further extended the diesel export ban to January 31, 2027. III. Summary, Evaluation, and Analysis (A) Role of Drones The intermittent fuel shortages experienced in Russia from August 2025 through August 2026 were directly triggered by Ukraine’s effective, precise, and frequent large-scale drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and other energy infrastructure. Over 80 years ago, such long-range attacks against critical enemy strategic targets were carried out by long-range bombers deploying manually or mechanically guided bombs. The cost and toll were extremely high—and casualty rates among frontline pilots were exceptionally severe.

Russia tightens export controls again! Your cargo is still en route—but the risks have already changed.

1) Restricted refined product exports have directly caused volatility in domestic Russian transport costs: logistics fuel surcharges are subject to immediate upward adjustment; delivery lead times at border checkpoints have lengthened; and procurement budgets for petrochemical raw materials must incorporate flexible contingency allowances. Response recommendations: According to analysis by the Russian media outlet Agentstvo, as of July 31, 2026, at least 18 Wildberries warehouses had been struck, with 10 damaged—covering over 1 million square meters, representing 38% of large-scale warehousing capacity (or up to 60% including attempted but unsuccessful strikes). (Source: Kyiv Post, July 31, 2026.) Even more critically, platform risk-shifting has occurred: Wildberries updated its terms of service on July 7, adding Clause 11.3.4, which classifies drone attacks and military operations as force majeure events—exempting the platform from liability. Ozon followed suit shortly thereafter, revising its FBO terms to include identical免责 language. (Source: globalpod.cn, July 21, 2026.) Loss of goods results in full financial loss; order defaults trigger forfeiture of deposits and steep rating declines. Small- and medium-sized sellers relying on loans to stock inventory may face simultaneous loss of both goods and capital—potentially triggering cash-flow collapse. Response recommendations: On July 18, 2026, the Central Bank of Russia extended restrictions on outbound foreign currency transfers: residents of ‘friendly countries’ face a monthly cap of USD 1 million; exporters must convert at least 40% of their foreign exchange earnings into rubles. The Russian Ministry of Finance indicated in March its intention to extend these measures further. (Sources: Interfax, March 24, 2026; Central Bank of Russia official announcement.) Profit repatriation cycles have stretched to 2–6 weeks—or even 2–3 months—while the RUB/CNY exchange rate has fluctuated by over 20%. Although 12 Russian banks have joined China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), delays remain possible due to U.S. Executive Order 14114. Response recommendations: On May 27, 2026, Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade implemented a revised 'Parallel Import Goods List', removing brands including Acer, ASUS, HP, Samsung, and Intel. Import substitution has thus shifted from 'emergency supply assurance' to 'mandatory domestic localization.'

Russia Extends Ban on Most Diesel Exports Through January

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Russia extended its general diesel export ban until January to stabilize domestic markets, permitting limited exemptions for select suppliers. Deputy Prime Minister Novak forecasts November exports of 2.15 million tons despite potential supply disruptions from Ukrainian refinery attacks.

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Russia Extends Ban on Most Diesel Exports Through January

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