Good news! After the imposition of the price cap, Russia’s oil exports have halved.

Bloomberg reports: Western countries’ latest package of sanctions—including a price cap on Russian oil and an embargo on its oil exports to the EU—has severely damaged Russia’s oil economy. Based on international tanker shipment data, Russia’s seaborne oil exports from its ports fell by 56% for the week ending December 16. Maritime oil exports plummeted from 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first week of December to 1.6 million bpd—its lowest level since the start of the year. From Baltic Sea ports—once the primary “window to the world” for Russian crude—only seven tankers departed last week, down from twelve the previous week and fifteen in the final week of November. Oil exports via the Baltic Sea dropped by 42%, falling from 1.25 million bpd to 730,000 bpd. Compared with eleven weeks earlier, only four tankers left Pacific ports—through which Russia exports oil over short distances to Asia—causing actual exports to fall 2.7-fold: from 1.14 million bpd to 410,000 bpd.

D1493: Ukraine strikes Russian oil terminals—yet again; UK and Germany intensify sanctions measures.

According to a Reuters report dated March 25, Ukrainian drone strikes, disruptions to the Druzhba pipeline, and the seizure of tankers have halted at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity—roughly 2 million barrels per day. In March 2026, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked all three of Russia’s major western oil export ports: Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea. On March 22–23 and March 24–25, Ukraine launched separate attacks on the Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports, suspending crude loading operations at both facilities. Per Reuters, operations at the Novorossiysk oil terminal have remained below planned capacity since Ukraine’s early-March strike against it. Traders told Reuters that recent seizures in Europe of tankers “linked to Russia”—likely referring to Russia’s shadow fleet—have disrupted Arctic oil exports from Murmansk, previously totaling 300,000 bpd. Traders also noted that disruptions to Russia’s oil export routes toward the West have forced Russia to rely more heavily on exports to Asia—but infrastructure constraints limit the capacity of these alternative routes. Reuters pointed out that Russia continues supplying approximately 1.9 million bpd of oil to India daily via two pipelines and the Kozmino port in Russia’s Far East, and continues loading roughly 250,000 bpd of oil daily from its two offshore oil and gas facilities on Sakhalin Island. Traders added that Russia also supplies about 300,000 bpd of crude oil daily to refineries in Belarus. Ukraine’s drone strikes and Western efforts to seize Russian tankers have significantly impacted Russia’s oil export revenues—revenues upon which Russia relies to fund its war in Ukraine. Russia’s ability to sell oil depends partly on its ability to transport it. Ukraine’s sustained drone campaign—and European efforts targeting Russia’s shadow fleet—will erode this transportation capacity, substantially offsetting the impact of partial U.S. exemptions from sanctions on Russian oil. On the night of March 25–26, Ukrainian forces carried out further long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure near the Baltic Sea—the third such attack on Leningrad Oblast’s oil infrastructure within four days. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Kirishi refinery in Leningrad Oblast, igniting the main refinery complex and two storage tanks. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Kirishi refinery accounts for over 6% of Russia’s total refining capacity. Geolocated video released on March 26 showed thick smoke billowing from the refinery area—marking Ukraine’s third strike against Russian oil infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast during the week of March 19–26. On March 25, two anonymous sources told Reuters that, following Ukraine’s attacks on the Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports on the nights of March 22–23 and March 24–25, Russian ports suspended shipments of crude oil and petroleum products. On the night of March 25–26, Russian forces launched a series of long-range drone strikes against Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 153 drones—including Shahed-, Geran-, and Izdeliye-type drones—from Millerovo in Rostov Oblast; approximately 100 of them were Shahed-type drones.

Russia Ships Less Crude as Loadings Halted at Key Pacific Port

15 hours ago

Russian crude shipments declined amid halted loading at Kozmino port and Ukrainian refinery strikes. Overseas flows dropped to 3.63 million barrels daily, pushing export values to a six-week low.

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Russia Ships Less Crude as Loadings Halted at Key Pacific Port

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