What is Russia's official stance on its 2024 oil output trend, and how does Deputy PM Novak characterize its duration and cause?

According to the news, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russia will 'slightly reduce its oil output this year', describing the decline as a 'partial decline' compared with forecast figures and explicitly labeling it 'temporary'. He attributed this drop primarily to domestic oil refineries operating 'below capacity because of unscheduled maintenance', and affirmed that production 'will begin to increase once domestic refineries finish scheduled maintenance' and resume operations, as the situation stabilizes.

How have Russia's official oil production forecasts changed for 2026–2029, and what document contains this revision?

A government draft forecast—seen by Reuters and expected to be finalized at the end of September for use in drafting the national budget—revised Russia's oil production estimates for 2026–2029 downward by 'between 16 million and 20 million tons compared to the previous outlook published in May'; this revision is part of a broader downgrade that includes setting the 2024 oil output forecast at a '17-year low' and adjusting the fuel exports outlook for 2026 and 2027 due to the war with Ukraine.

Russia to Slightly Cut Oil Output This Year, Deputy PM Novak Says

Sep 2, 2026

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced a slight reduction in oil output this year due to refinery maintenance, revising forecasts to a 17-year low. Despite temporary declines, OPEC+ maintains significant influence on global energy markets.

reuters

2026-04-22

OPEC Downgrades Q2 Global Oil Demand Forecast

2026-04-29

OPEC+ Likely to Agree Another Oil Output Hike Without UAE, Sources Say

2026-04-29

Russia says OPEC+ will continue after UAE exit, no price war expected

2026-04-30

OPEC+ Delegates Expect Another Symbolic Supply Hike Without UAE

2026-05-02

OPEC+ Agrees in Principle on Small Output Hike