White Petroleum in the Carbon-Neutral Era: ALB, SQM, and LTHM—A Timely Revaluation of Lithium Mining Assets

By analyzing Albemarle’s (ALB) future capacity ramp-up, the company is set to experience rapid output expansion in both 2022 and 2023, accelerating revenue growth and earnings realization. We are optimistic about Albemarle’s resource moat and its disciplined, orderly capacity rollout. As the world’s leading lithium resource stock, Albemarle’s steady production ramp-up perfectly aligns with the explosive growth of new-energy vehicles. Leveraging its robust sales capabilities, the company holds strong promise for the future. Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) SQM is a global leader in the integrated production and sale of fertilizers, lithium, iodine, and industrial chemicals. Chilean Mining Chemical Company produces specialty plant nutrients and chemicals. Its operations are divided across several business segments: Specialty Plant Nutrition (SPN), engaged in producing organic fertilizers and nutrient solutions; Lithium and Derivatives, focused on lithium ore mining and lithium salt production; Iodine and Derivatives, involved in iodine extraction and derivative manufacturing; Industrial Chemicals—including sodium nitrate, potassium nitrate, and boric acid; Potassium—covering potassium chloride and potassium sulfate production; and Other Products and Services, encompassing ancillary support activities. This article focuses specifically on SQM’s lithium and derivatives business. SQM sources its products primarily from the Caliche nitrate deposit and the Salar de Atacama brine deposit in northern Chile. The Caliche deposit hosts the world’s largest reserves of iodine and nitrates, while the Salar de Atacama brine deposit features high concentrations of lithium and potassium. SQM extracts raw materials from the Caliche nitrate deposit to produce specialty plant fertilizers and nitrate-based products for various industrial applications, as well as iodine and iodine derivatives. From the Salar de Atacama brine deposit, it extracts potassium-, lithium-, and sulfate-rich brines to manufacture potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, lithium solution, and carnallite (magnesium chloride). Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are produced at SQM’s facility near Antofagasta, Chile. Through its global distribution network, SQM sells products to over 100 countries worldwide, with the majority of its revenue generated outside Chile. To expand resources and operations beyond Chile, in 2016 SQM entered into a 50–50 joint venture agreement with Lithium Americas to develop the Cauchari-Olaroz brine project in Jujuy Province, Argentina, targeting an annual production capacity of 50,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). In 2017, SQM and its subsidiary SQM Australia Pty acquired a 50% stake in the Mount Holland lithium project in Western Australia, forming a 50–50 joint venture with Kidman Resources Limited. The Mount Holland lithium project plans to commence mining and construct concentration and refining facilities starting in 2021, with an expected annual output of 40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.

Tracking South American Brine Lithium Projects in Q4 2024: Costs Underestimated, Expansion Progress Slowing (with 20-Page Report)

Lithium Business Performance: Volume Up, Prices Down—Significant Earnings Decline in 2024. In 2024, lithium product sales totaled 203,000 tonnes LCE, up 27% year-on-year. However, due to falling lithium prices, revenue amounted to USD 3.02 billion, down 57% YoY; adjusted EBITDA stood at USD 760 million, down 71% YoY. Lithium business accounted for 67% of total adjusted EBITDA, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25%, down 12 percentage points YoY. On a quarterly basis, Q4 2024 lithium product sales reached 49,000 tonnes LCE, down 10% YoY; revenue was USD 620 million, down 63% YoY and 20% QoQ; adjusted EBITDA was USD 130 million, up 140% YoY but down 6% QoQ. The YoY increase in quarterly adjusted EBITDA was primarily attributable to a USD 604 million inventory impairment charge taken in Q4 2024. Arcadium: Multiple Expansion Projects Slowing; Costs Underestimated Sales increased, driving Q4 2024 EBITDA higher sequentially. In 2024, the company reported revenue of USD 1.01 billion, adjusted EBITDA of USD 320 million (adjusted EBITDA margin: 32.2%), and net income attributable to shareholders of USD 100 million. On a quarterly basis, Q4 2024 revenue totaled USD 290 million, up 42.3% QoQ; adjusted EBITDA reached USD 70 million, up 71.8% QoQ—mainly driven by higher sales volume; adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 25.5%, up 4.4 percentage points QoQ; net income attributable to shareholders was negative USD 10 million, down 188.2% QoQ. Hombre Muerto: Expansion Delayed, High Capital Intensity Expansion timeline delayed; planned capacity to rise from current 32,000 tonnes LCE to 57,000 tonnes LCE by 2028. As of Q3 2024, Hombre Muerto’s total brine capacity stood at 32,000 tonnes LCE, including 4,000 tonnes LCE of lithium chloride capacity. Both major projects at the site have experienced delays in commissioning. The company now targets 57,000 tonnes LCE capacity by 2028, with a long-term capacity plan totaling 117,000 tonnes LCE. Olaroz: Capacity Ramping Up Steadily; Unit Cost USD 6,500–7,500/tonne Capacity continues ramping up; unit operating cost remains USD 6,500–7,500 per tonne. (1) Volume: Olaroz Phase II—a 25,000-tonne expansion—produced its first batch of wet lithium carbonate in July 2023. As of Q3 2024, total project capacity reached 43,000 tonnes; no further expansion is currently planned. Per Q3 2024 guidance, 2025 production is forecast at 31,000 tonnes. (2) Cost: Per Q3 2024 disclosure, unit operating cost stands at USD 6,500–7,500 per tonne. Cauchari: Commissioning Delayed, Costs Revised Upward 25,000-tonne lithium carbonate capacity postponed to post-2028; operating costs revised upward again. (1) Capacity & Timeline: The project targets 25,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate capacity. In its Q3 2023 report, the company projected completion of construction in H1 2027 and commissioning in H2 2027. Per latest Q3 2024 guidance, commissioning is now expected only after 2028. (2) Further Cost Revisions: Due to rising input costs—including soda ash, lime, and labor—the company raised its operating cost estimate to USD 4,081 per tonne LCE in Q3 2023; in Q3 2024, it revised this upward again, projecting post-commissioning unit operating costs of approximately USD 6,500–7,500 per tonne LCE. (3) Capital Intensity: The 25,000-tonne capacity requires an estimated capital expenditure of USD 650 million, implying a capex intensity of USD 260 million per 10,000 tonnes.

SailingStone Capital Partners LLC Decreases Stock Holdings in Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. ($SQM)

Jun 17, 2026

SailingStone Capital Partners reduced its stake in Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) by 44.4% in Q4. Other institutions increased positions following SQM's Q1 earnings of $1.28 per share.

MarketBeat

2026-03-31

Boston Common Asset Management LLC Raises Stake in Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A.

2026-04-08

Aberdeen Group plc Sells 27,152 Shares of Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. ($SQM)

2026-04-13

Sociedad Quimica y Minera (NYSE:SQM) Reaches New 1-Year High - Here's Why

2026-04-30

Wealth High Governance Capital Ltda Takes Position in Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A.

2026-05-05

Pictet Asset Management Initiates New Position in Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A.