Collective Punishment! Saudi Arabia Unleashes Its Ace Card—Britain and the EU Are Wailing!

【Answer 1】 I. A Single Cancellation Notice Shakes All of Europe On September 16, Reuters—citing three trade insiders—brought into the global spotlight a document previously circulating only within industry circles: Saudi Arabia had formally notified certain European refiners that their September crude oil shipments had been canceled. Within hours of the news breaking, international oil prices surged sharply, and Europe’s energy markets instantly tensed. An even more alarming signal followed two days later: On September 18, multiple financial media outlets reported—citing market sources—that Saudi Arabia had informed European refiners they would likewise receive no crude oil supply in October. This means the supply cut is not a one-off delivery delay, but rather an ongoing, long-term supply contraction. From Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast to refinery towers along the Rhine River, the injury to a 1,200-kilometer pipeline is visibly rewriting Europe’s energy ledger. II. Dissecting the 'Lifeline': Why the East-West Pipeline Is So Critical The East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, spanning the Arabian Peninsula, is the most strategically vital asset in Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure. This 1,200-kilometer steel artery runs from the main crude-producing regions along the Persian Gulf coast in the east to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast in the west. Its designed capacity stands at up to 7 million barrels per day (bpd), and under normal operations it consistently delivers around 4 million bpd—roughly 4% of global crude supply. This strategic significance has been dramatically amplified since 2026. Following the outbreak of conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz—the maritime chokepoint handling about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade—has nearly ground to a halt, with daily commercial vessel transits plummeting from over one hundred pre-war to just single digits. The traditional Persian Gulf export route has effectively ceased to function, elevating the East-West Pipeline and Yanbu Port from a ‘backup option’ to Saudi Arabia’s sole large-scale alternative corridor for oil exports—operating at full capacity above 4 million bpd, carrying over two-thirds of the Kingdom’s total oil exports. It is precisely this ‘single-pillar’ configuration that sowed the seeds of crisis. When all strategic bets rest on one pipeline and one port, even a single precise strike can trigger systemic collapse. That fragile equilibrium was shattered on the morning of September 10. III. From Attack to Supply Cutoff: The Full Chain of Crisis Transmission Reviewing the entire incident, just one week elapsed between the first drone breach and European refineries receiving cancellation notices. Each link in this transmission chain exposes the fragility of the global energy system. First Link: Precision Strike. On the morning of September 10, multiple drones launched from Iraq struck key pumping stations along the Riyadh and Medina sections of the pipeline, igniting major fires on-site. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry issued a strong condemnation late on September 11; its Energy Ministry immediately announced a precautionary full shutdown of the pipeline. Notably, this marks yet another in over a month of consecutive strikes by the Houthi movement against Saudi energy infrastructure—from Red Sea tankers to onshore pipelines—growing increasingly accurate and forceful in targeting. Second Link: Repair Obstructed. Initially, external observers remained optimistic; even the U.S. Energy Secretary suggested the pipeline could resume operations within days. Yet as damage assessments progressed, grim updates accumulated: core pumping station equipment suffered severe destruction; multiple pipeline sections were deformed. Industry insiders estimate full restoration will require five to six weeks; Goldman Sachs’ repair timeline ranges from short-term fixes to a maximum of eight weeks.

Kowtowing? Did Saudi Arabia Beg Trump for Help—and Get Rejected? Where Lies the Houthis’ Ambition?

【Answer 2】 Meanwhile, the Houthis’ strengthened control over Yemen’s western coastline and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait enables them to acquire missiles, drones, and other weapon components from Iran and elsewhere more conveniently and covertly—bolstering their arsenal. It also grants them greater capability and opportunity to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at lower cost and with reduced operational difficulty. Crucially, the Houthis’ firm grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait significantly raises the cost for the U.S. military to intervene directly in Yemen’s war. Leveraging the strait’s narrow width—just 28–32 kilometers—the Houthis can more easily monitor nearby vessels and launch strikes using short-range missiles, drones, and sea mines. Their threat to U.S. carrier strike groups today is far greater than during the 2024–2025 Red Sea crisis. During Operation Prosperity Guardian, U.S. carrier strike groups failed to fully suppress or destroy the Houthis’ long-range strike capabilities; now facing a better-armed, battle-hardened, and terrain-advantaged Houthi force, the U.S. military faces even steeper challenges. Should the U.S. intervene militarily in Yemen, it risks escalating the conflict and provoking a Houthi blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. With both the Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz—the two critical maritime chokepoints—under simultaneous pressure, the resulting energy shock, broader commodity shortages, and soaring shipping costs would fuel cost-push inflation, directly undermining the Trump administration’s domestic political standing. Viewed this way, the White House’s refusal to deploy troops directly into Yemen becomes self-evident. Where lies the Houthis’ ambition? The key window for observing the Houthis’ military objectives is Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline. Currently, with traditional shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted by hostilities, the East-West Pipeline and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have become Saudi Arabia’s most critical oil export corridors. Saudi oil production has declined from approximately 9.3 million bpd in Q1 2026 to 6.238 million bpd in August 2026—the lowest level since 1990. The East-West Pipeline was built during the Iran-Iraq War in 1981. Stretching 1,201 kilometers, it consists of two parallel pipelines with a 48-inch (1.2192-meter) diameter. Originally designed for 5 million bpd, its capacity was expanded to 7 million bpd after the September 14, 2019, drone and cruise missile attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq processing facility and Khurais oil field—when Saudi Arabia repurposed a parallel natural gas pipeline for crude transport. Its daily throughput has surged rapidly from roughly 3 million bpd to full capacity of 7 million bpd—equivalent to roughly 4–5% of global oil supply. Of this, about 2 million bpd supplies domestic Saudi refineries, while up to 5 million bpd can be transported via this pipeline from the main Persian Gulf production zones to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea, then onward through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Asia. Should the Bab el-Mandeb Strait become blocked, voyage duration and transportation costs would rise sharply. According to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler and LSEG Shipping Research, an oil tanker sailing from Yanbu Port on Saudi Arabia’s western Red Sea coast to Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait typically requires only 19 days. In contrast, the alternate route—via the Suez Canal, Mediterranean Sea, Strait of Gibraltar, and around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to Asia—takes 48 days.

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Saudi Aramco increased flows through its East-West pipeline to over 80% capacity, boosting export volumes to wartime highs. This surge contributes to lower oil prices and increased Middle East exports toward pre-war levels despite regional tensions.

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