Why is Saudi Arabia experiencing an oil revenue windfall while the UAE is seeing a sharp decline amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade?

Saudi Arabia is gaining a revenue edge because it can divert the bulk of its crude exports to the Red Sea via its East-West pipeline, and higher oil prices more than compensate for lost shipments through Hormuz; in contrast, the UAE’s detoured exports only partially offset the impact of the strait’s closure, leading Goldman Sachs to estimate a 10% weekly oil revenue rise for Saudi Arabia versus a ~25% fall for the UAE.

What are the estimated fiscal impacts of the Hormuz blockade on key Gulf states like Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain?

Oman’s fiscal balance swung from a 7% GDP deficit to an 8% GDP surplus; Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain face deficits of 40%, 20%, and 17% of GDP respectively; Goldman Sachs estimates the six GCC members are losing about $700 million in oil revenue daily, totaling $80 billion after two months.

Saudi Arabia Set for Oil Windfall After Hormuz Boosts Prices

May 1, 2026

Saudi Arabia and Oman gain oil revenue from the Hormuz blockade and price hikes, while UAE and others suffer losses. Goldman Sachs forecasts divergent GCC fiscal impacts as Brent crude surpasses $126 per barrel amid ongoing regional conflict.

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