Why does Saudi Arabia, seemingly failing to learn from past experience, once again go to war with the Houthi movement? The reason is simple: if it doesn’t act now, it will literally starve.

Many international observers, seeing the renewed outbreak of hostilities between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement, naturally wonder: over a decade ago, Saudi Arabia deeply intervened in Yemen’s civil war—spending enormous sums on military operations without decisively defeating its adversary, while simultaneously shouldering heavy reputational and fiscal burdens. After managing several years of de facto ceasefire, smoke is rising once more. Many external commentators label Saudi Arabia as ‘failing to learn from history.’ Yet beneath this surface-level military confrontation lies not impulsive retaliation, but rather an unavoidable countermeasure taken under direct threat to the nation’s economic lifeline. A set of shipping and fiscal data starkly reveals reality. Following disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, over 70% of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have been rerouted to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, relying on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for outward shipment—making this maritime corridor Saudi Arabia’s economic lifeline. After the Houthis announced a maritime blockade, they attacked eight Saudi oil tankers and forced twenty-nine others to turn back. According to shipping analytics firm Kpler, crude oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait plummeted by 36% in a short period. Oil revenues constitute 68% of Saudi Arabia’s national budget; should this maritime export route be effectively sealed off—even with vast underground reserves—the kingdom would be unable to sell its oil, earn foreign exchange, or sustain basic state functions. Don’t be misled by Saudi Arabia’s massive sovereign wealth fund—it cannot withstand sustained external shocks indefinitely. In Q2 2026, Saudi Arabia’s oil sector output contracted nearly 25%, resulting in a fiscal deficit of $9.1 billion for that quarter—prompting the government to seek at least $8 billion in new external loans to cushion the pressure. On one side lies Vision 2030—a costly, ongoing transformation plan demanding continuous investment in infrastructure and tourism; on the other, frequent tanker attacks are eroding foreign investors’ confidence in the Middle East’s investment climate. The Wall Street Journal has analyzed how the Houthis’ strategy extends beyond attacking oil tankers: their deliberate strikes on Riyadh Airport during peak tourism investment seasons directly undermine Saudi Arabia’s efforts to attract foreign capital and develop its cultural and tourism sectors. Under this dual pressure, Saudi Arabia’s margin for maneuver is rapidly shrinking.

The Houthis have issued a warning banning all flights to all airports within Saudi Arabia—does this place the Saudi royal family in an existential crisis?

After successfully striking Riyadh Airport, the Houthi movement issued its sternest blockade warning yet: prohibiting all commercial airlines worldwide from flying to any airport inside Saudi Arabia—except for those serving Mecca and Medina. 【The Houthis Turn Saudi Arabia into an Island】 This ban instantly led to the cancellation of over a thousand scheduled flights bound for Riyadh—including the 25th World Petroleum Congress, scheduled for October 12 in Riyadh. This was Saudi Arabia’s first time hosting a world-class petroleum conference, intended to gather government representatives, corporate executives, and academic experts from across the globe to discuss global energy development—and simultaneously elevate Saudi Arabia’s international standing. But now, thanks to the Houthis’ edict, Riyadh has effectively become an international island. Executives from ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and BP withdrew due to security concerns; government officials and scholars from various countries likewise declined to attend, unwilling to risk involvement. Left with no alternative, participants joined remotely—transforming what should have been a landmark event for forging major energy agreements into a dull, PowerPoint-only virtual session. Once again, the Saudi royal family has been publicly exposed for its ineptitude—and future world-class conferences may well avoid Saudi Arabia altogether. Some argue that the Houthis’ attack on Riyadh Airport wasn’t primarily about retaliatory military action against Saudi Arabia. Rather, their true strategic objective is to topple the Saudi monarchy—to liberate the Saudi people from what they deem a corrupt, feudal dynastic regime—and jointly launch a sweeping revolution that ultimately expels Western colonial influence and achieves full independence and statehood. Why make such a judgment? Precisely because the Houthis’ airport blockade targets not just aviation logistics—but Saudi Arabia’s economy itself, and the very resource-based foundation upon which the royal family’s survival depends. 【The Crisis Facing the Saudi Royal Family】 As widely known, Saudi Arabia remains, to this day, an absolute monarchy—a feudal state. In theory, traditional monarchies struggle to survive in today’s advanced productive era—even Japan and the UK have adopted constitutional monarchies. So why does the Saudi royal family retain firm control? The primary reason is that Saudi Arabia is a classic ‘rentier state’: it does not rely on taxation from its citizens, but instead distributes oil wealth to secure political acquiescence. Oil is so abundant here that members of the royal family need only install equipment and reap riches passively. With these revenues, they provide free healthcare, education, generous subsidies, and guaranteed government employment—building an entire welfare system designed to buy public loyalty and suppress demands for political participation or reform. Thus, a parasitic relationship has formed between the monarchy and the populace: should citizens rise up against the royal family, their welfare benefits vanish immediately. Driven by self-interest, the population chooses political passivity. Yet this passive compliance comes at a cost: public expectations—and appetites—grow ever larger. Having grasped the monarchy’s ‘buying stability with money’ strategy, citizens stage protests almost annually. To quell unrest, the royal family must continually escalate subsidies and welfare spending—increasing its own fiscal burden. Even with currently robust oil revenues, the monarchy cannot indefinitely sustain repeated, escalating public demands.

Saudi Arabia’s Houthi Challenge Shifts Fears to Non-Oil Economy

5 days ago

Amidst Houthi attacks, Saudi Arabia's oil exports remain resilient with Brent near $115, yet fears shift to the non-oil economy as regional instability threatens tourism, investment, and Vision 2030 diversification plans.

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Saudi Arabia’s Houthi Challenge Shifts Fears to Non-Oil Economy

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