How should we view the Houthi forces shooting down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet in the Marib direction? What weapon was used?

The F-15 may have had a rough year in 2026—first, during the U.S.-Iran flare-up, Kuwait’s iconic ‘Bug’ aircraft reportedly shot down three ‘holy’ (i.e., high-value) targets in a single day; then, an Iranian ‘elbow strike’ brought down an F-15E, triggering a dramatic pilot survival saga. Now comes this latest Saudi F-15 crash. So far, Kobe—the Houthis’ nickname for their anti-aircraft prowess—has ‘MANed’ (i.e., downed) five F-15s this year. Add to that the Japan Air Self-Defense Force’s aging F-15J fleet’s repeated accidents and Boeing’s painfully slow production of the new F-15EX, and it’s been a truly dark year for the F-15 family. Turning to Saudi Arabia itself, the Royal Saudi Air Force’s combat effectiveness seems so low that even ‘strawberry troops’ (a slang term implying weak or untested forces) might give them a run for their money. Since 2015, Saudi-led coalition losses against the Houthis include the following: I. Fixed-wing aircraft (manned): F-15S / F-15SA: In January 2018, the Houthis released video footage claiming they shot down a Saudi F-15 near Saada using a modified Russian R-27 air-to-air missile launched from the ground. CCTV’s coverage of the video showed the jet deploying flares but still being hit. The Saudi-led coalition attributed the loss vaguely to ‘technical failure’ or ‘combat damage,’ without elaborating. In September 2026, the Houthis claimed to have shot down another F-15 over Marib using a domestically produced surface-to-air missile—and stated that subsequent Saudi F-15s and Eurofighter Typhoons dispatched to search for wreckage were forced to retreat by Houthi air defenses. As of publicly available reports, however, Saudi authorities have not confirmed the jet’s loss; they only acknowledged intercepting a Houthi drone around the same time. Tornado IDS: On February 14, 2020, a Tornado IDS was shot down by a Houthi surface-to-air missile in Al-Jawf Governorate. The Houthis released video footage of the wreckage. The coalition merely stated the aircraft ‘crashed during a support mission,’ refusing to confirm it had been hit by air defense fire. This marked the coalition’s second confirmed Tornado loss in Yemen. Other coalition aircraft (not Saudi-flagged but often conflated): A Moroccan F-16 was shot down by the Houthis in 2015; a Bahraini F-16 crashed near the border (the coalition cited ‘technical failure’); and a UAE Mirage 2000 went down in Yemen in 2016 (also blamed on ‘technical failure’). Though none flew under the Saudi flag, these constitute part of the coalition’s documented aerial combat losses. II. Helicopters: AH-64 Apache: Multiple incidents. In December 2016, the Houthis claimed to have downed an Apache near Najran using a guided surface-to-air missile; the coalition issued no official comment. On November 29, 2019, the Houthis released video showing an Apache shot down along the Yemen-Saudi border, with intact wreckage and two dead pilots—Saudi Arabia’s second Apache loss that year. Then, from late November to early December 2019, the Houthis claimed further helicopter shoot-downs in the Asir/Hajjah region; local pro-Houthi media reported these as two military aircraft downed within 48 hours. UH-60 Black Hawk: In April 2017, a Black Hawk crashed during operations in Marib, killing 12 Saudi servicemen. The coalition announced an accident investigation, while some Yemeni sources suggested ‘friendly fire’—but no confirmation exists that the Houthis shot it down.

Post-holiday review of the National Day holiday period: Are the Houthi–Saudi conflict and its escalation still a strategic ‘duet’ (i.e., coordinated performance)?

Direct troop deployment is out of the question—but Saudi Arabia is already deeply entangled. So what happens if it suddenly declares, ‘We’re pulling out—we’re done!’? Then the Saudis would retort: ‘If you can’t protect us, why should we let you station troops on our soil?’ Yet if this escalates into a genuine conflict, Saudi Arabia will have no choice but to fight tooth and nail—because territory is at stake. If Saudi Arabia fails to drive the Houthis out, how can it possibly retain its status as the Middle East’s leading power? At that point, the U.S. would inevitably intervene—providing weapons, logistics, and other support—to reassert its influence over Riyadh. Then, Washington wouldn’t fear falling into a trap anymore: Saudi Arabia would be far more desperate, facing potential national collapse. So if Iran ever capitulates, we’ll surely see the U.S. step into the Houthi–Saudi conflict—even if the two sides stop fighting outright. Washington may even use ‘assisting Saudi Arabia against the Houthis’ as a pretext to sustain the conflict. Thus, America’s stance serves as one key indicator of whether the Houthi–Saudi confrontation is real—or staged. Many readers likely skimmed my analysis rather than reading it closely, jumping straight to conclusions. To those impatiently awaiting final verdicts: hold your horses. We’ve only reached Stage Two. Over the next two weeks, Stage Three may well begin—and Stage Four could unfold around the time of the U.S.–Israel elections. So if you’re eager to judge whether my interpretation is right or wrong, you’ll need to wait at least until the U.S. midterm elections. For those curious about the underlying mechanics, read on. Many probably noticed the sustained intensity of Houthi–Saudi hostilities over the National Day holiday—especially Saudi claims of mobilizing 100,000 troops—and thus concluded this couldn’t possibly be a ‘duet.’ According to Reuters’ October 2 report, Saudi Arabia is preparing a new military campaign against Yemen’s Houthis, aiming—among other objectives—to recapture the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Current planning envisions mobilizing over 100,000 Yemeni ground troops. CCTV News reported that, on the evening of October 3, the Houthis issued a statement vowing retaliation for Saudi airstrikes on Sana’a and other Yemeni cities—launching multiple ballistic missiles and drones targeting Aramco facilities in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital. Reuters reported on October 8 that the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, striking a Saudia Airlines Airbus A320-200 with shrapnel or debris and causing severe damage and fire. This marks the first time since this year’s ‘Ramadan War’ that a Saudi civilian airliner has been hit by a missile. That covers the major Houthi–Saudi conflict news over the National Day holiday, right? As noted earlier, America’s posture toward this conflict is one observation point—but timing matters just as much. The crux of analyzing this conflict lies not in its intensity, but in its timing! When the Houthis and Saudis first clashed, I pointed out that the outbreak coincided precisely with heightened U.S.–Iran tensions and U.S.–Israeli threats of nuclear strikes against Iran. This time, it’s the same story. On October 2—the holiday’s second day—I published an extra analysis focusing on the UAE aircraft incident. The U.S. and Israel’s goal was to portray Iran as a terrorist state—thus building a casus belli for nuclear strikes. Many observers rightly suspected this was an Israeli self-staged spectacle.

Saudi Helicopter Crashes Near Yemeni Border as Houthi War Rages

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Saudi Helicopter Crashes Near Yemeni Border as Houthi War Rages

Saudi Helicopter Crashes Near Yemeni Border as Houthi War Rages

FAQ