The AI-driven demand for HBM is real—I don’t deny that. I myself use AI extensively. Moreover, HBM differs significantly from lithium ore: anyone can mine lithium—Australia digs, then Africa digs; supply will inevitably ramp up over time. But globally, only three companies can produce HBM, with SK Hynix alone accounting for nearly 60% of output. Its yield rates are low and capacity expansion is slow—the supply-side barriers for HBM are orders of magnitude higher than those for lithium. So I’m not saying memory chips will crash tomorrow or next week. What I’m highlighting is a more fundamental logic: when everyone around you insists something will rise forever, you should at least pause and ask—what assumptions underpin this ‘forever-rising’ narrative? Could those assumptions start to weaken? Lately, AI and semiconductor stocks have stalled and begun rotating—could that be a signal? At the peak of every cycle, the prevailing narrative appears flawless. In 2020, it was consumer staples and healthcare—‘perpetual, non-cyclical essentials.’ In 2021, new energy—‘revolutionary technology erasing cyclical patterns.’ In 2022, coal—‘supply-side reforms locking in capacity constraints.’ Now it’s memory chips and AI hardware—‘AI demand has no ceiling.’ Yet the bedrock laws of commerce have never made exceptions for any story. Anything humans can produce remains subject to supply-demand cycles—inescapably. And indeed, some warning signals are already emerging. … Saudi Aramco announced an $11-per-barrel cut in its crude oil prices for Asia effective August—a reduction unmatched in at least 26 years. Markets had expected an $8 cut; instead, it slashed $11. Here’s the context: tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have eased, Saudi Arabia’s key ports have resumed operations, and export volumes have rebounded to 90% of pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is ramping up production—starting in August, daily output will increase by another 188,000 barrels. With supply flooding the market, Saudi Arabia must resort to price competition to retain customers. Falling oil prices benefit us: retail fuel prices were just lowered—Grade 92 gasoline down by ¥0.67 per liter, Grade 95 down by ¥0.71—the largest cuts this year. Lower inflation eases pressure on the central bank, giving it more policy room. But I believe Saudi Arabia’s price cut carries another implicit message: the world’s largest resource exporter is deploying its steepest price reduction in 26 years on its most critical commodity—to fight for market share. What does that signify? It suggests demand isn’t as robust as assumed—at least not robust enough to absorb all the new supply. Put differently, Saudi Arabia lacks confidence in future oil prices—and in the global economy’s outlook. … 1. Tencent plans to sell approximately 273 million shares of Kuaishou, priced between HK$43 and HK$44.5 per share—representing a 3–6% discount to today’s closing price—raising roughly $1.6 billion. The proceeds will reportedly fund Tencent’s own share buybacks. While Kuaishou’s valuation is no longer expensive, Tencent faces mounting capital demands: AI investments, game development, and ongoing buybacks—forcing it to raise funds wherever possible. Major constituents of the Hang Seng Internet Index continue to face intermittent selling pressure; holding them over recent years has indeed delivered a subpar investor experience. 2. One development warrants attention: The tradable share count of the CSI 300 ETF has fallen below its October 2023 level—indicating that the ‘mysterious’ market-stabilizing funds which entered during earlier interventions have largely exited their positions. Reduced selling pressure is certainly positive. Yet viewed another way, the index’s ability to hold steady near the 4,000-point level previously relied significantly on active floor support from these buyers.

The harshest blow yet against Putin: Saudi Arabia announces discounts for India and China to replace Russian oil.

Summary: To replace Russian oil exports, Saudi Arabia has announced both an OPEC+ production increase and steep price cuts for Asian customers—especially India and China. Starting in December, Saudi Arabia will slash prices by $1.2–$1.4 per barrel for all grades sold to Asia, versus only $0.50 for the Americas and no discount for Europe. This move coincides with the enforcement of new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil giants. Several Indian and Chinese refiners have already suspended imports of Russian oil and shifted procurement to Saudi Arabia or other suppliers. Saudi Arabia aims to seize Russia’s seaborne oil market share in Asia—and thereby undermine Putin’s energy revenues. Since Russia’s invasion over three years ago, Western nations have imposed energy-centered economic sanctions on Russia to cripple its military financing. Yet India has repeatedly explained externally that its expanded imports of Russian oil stem purely from commercial considerations—namely, the substantial discounts offered, making Russian crude unusually price-competitive. On October 29, the United States unveiled a new round of sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies—Lukoil and Rosneft—as well as 34 of their subsidiaries. Following this announcement, certain Indian and Chinese oil firms declared they would halt or reduce Russian oil imports. Nevertheless, voices within both countries continue to argue that purchasing discounted Russian oil remains a legitimate commercial activity—not one that should be discontinued! Well then—the harshest blow yet against Russian oil exports has landed squarely on Putin. According to a report by the professional oil website OILPRICE, citing a press release from Saudi Aramco—the state-owned oil company of the world’s largest oil exporter—Saudi Arabia is simultaneously leading OPEC+ producers to boost output (further saturating an already well-supplied market) and slashing prices for Asian customers, particularly those in China and India. I. OPEC+ countries announced an additional daily production increase of 104,000 barrels in November—and starting in December through March next year, will raise output by a further 137,000 barrels per day. Eight voluntary OPEC+ participants—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and others—held a virtual meeting on November 2, 2025, to review global market conditions and prospects. Citing stable global economic prospects, healthy market fundamentals, and low petroleum inventories, the eight participating countries decided to raise daily output by 137,000 barrels beginning in December 2025, bringing total production to 33.292 million barrels per day. This elevated output level will be maintained through January–March next year. In November, the broader OPEC+ group—including both OPEC members and select non-OPEC producers—reported crude output rose 0.5% month-on-month, or 104,000 barrels per day. This growth stemmed primarily from increased output in Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Iran, offset partially by declines in Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait. II. Saudi Arabia announced a $1.2-per-barrel price cut for its Arab Light crude delivered to Asian customers starting in December. Alongside its production hike, Saudi Arabia also announced lower delivery prices for Asian customers—particularly China and India. Specifically, the sales price for Saudi Arab Light crude delivered in December will drop $1.20 per barrel. It will now trade at a $1.00-per-barrel premium to the Oman/Dubai benchmark—down from its previous $2.20-per-barrel premium.

Saudis Slash Oil Prices to Asia in Battle for Market Share

Oct 4, 2026

Saudi Aramco cut Arab Light crude prices to Asia by $5 per barrel below the benchmark for November, hitting a six-year low amid fierce market share competition. The price reduction accompanies increased export flows through the Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing regional security tensions.

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