What is the projected fiscal deficit for Mexico in 2027 according to Sheinbaum's budget blueprint, and how does it compare to this year's and earlier forecasts?

According to the 2027 budget blueprint presented by Finance Minister Edgar Amador, Mexico’s fiscal deficit is projected to shrink slightly to 3.9% of GDP in 2027, down from an estimated 4.1% of GDP in 2026. However, this 3.9% figure is larger than the 3.5% of GDP deficit the Ministry of Finance had forecast in April 2026, indicating a revision upward in the expected shortfall. The budget also projects a primary fiscal surplus (excluding debt payments) of 0.6% of GDP for 2027, down from a previously estimated 1.1% surplus.

How much is government support for Pemex being reduced in 2027, and what surplus is Pemex projected to achieve?

The 2027 budget proposes reducing government support for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) debt payments to about 81 billion pesos ($4.8 billion), a nearly 70% cut from the nearly 264 billion pesos allocated to the company in 2026. As a result, Pemex is projected to achieve a financial surplus of more than 95 billion pesos ($5.6 billion) in 2027; even without the government support, the budget document states Pemex would still post a surplus of 14 billion pesos.

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Mexico's 2027 budget projects a deficit reduction to 3.9% of GDP while cutting support for state oil firm Pemex, which expects a surplus. The plan emphasizes energy and infrastructure public works to drive economic growth.

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Sheinbaum Budget Projects Smaller Deficit, Increased Public Works

Sheinbaum Budget Projects Smaller Deficit, Increased Public Works

FAQ