Looking back at 2024 and looking ahead to 2025: How will the international oil and gas market trend?

More than 20 drilling rigs operated by Daqing Drilling are currently working in the eastern part of the South San District of Daqing Oilfield. Photo by Wu Tianyong. In 2025, the global oil market’s demand and supply landscape will continue undergoing profound changes, presenting increasingly severe challenges. On the demand side, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank generally forecast global economic growth of around 2.7% in 2025—significantly lower than the 3% annual average recorded between 2001 and 2019. This indicates that while the global economy is recovering, its pace remains sluggish. Such muted recovery casts a shadow over oil demand growth: although global oil demand is expected to rebound in 2025, forecasts from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC suggest that the year-on-year increase will be markedly lower than in 2023—especially in advanced economies, where oil consumption growth will slow substantially. Supply-side headwinds are equally concerning. Although the 'OPEC+' alliance announced in early December 2024 that it would extend its voluntary daily production cut of 2.2 million barrels—originally set to expire at end-December—until the end of March 2025, and postponed the full termination of cuts to December 2026, this measure alone is insufficient to reverse the global oil supply surplus anticipated for 2025. First, overproduction by key 'OPEC+' members—including Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan—may undermine the effectiveness of the agreed cuts. Second, additional output growth from non-'OPEC+' producers such as the United States, Canada, and Guyana will challenge 'OPEC+'’s ability to maintain market balance. The IEA forecasts global oil supply growth of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to just 630,000 bpd in 2024). Overall, the oil market’s supply-demand structure is expected to shift gradually from the tight balance observed in 2024 toward a looser equilibrium. This relatively loose oil supply-demand balance is unfavorable for sustaining high oil prices. Industry consensus anticipates subdued oil prices in 2025. Reuters projects the average Brent crude price at USD 76.61 per barrel in 2025—significantly lower than the 2024 average of USD 80.55. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs forecast Brent at USD 73 and USD 76 per barrel, respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) aligns closely with these projections, estimating the average Brent price in the second half of 2025 at approximately USD 74 per barrel. It should be noted that geopolitical factors remain critical variables influencing international oil prices. Political instability in oil-producing countries, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas war, and great-power strategic competition could all disrupt oil supplies or reduce export volumes—triggering price volatility. Moreover, shifts in U.S. energy policy following the U.S. presidential election—particularly under a potential Trump administration—could significantly impact global oil supply dynamics and price trends. Tightening Supply-Demand Dynamics in the Natural Gas Market: International Gas Prices Likely to Fluctuate at Elevated Levels A shale gas multi-well pad in southern Sichuan Province. Photo by Wang Zidan. Amid the oil market’s downturn, expectations for the natural gas market remain high. Amid complex international conditions and evolving demand patterns, what lies ahead for the natural gas market?

FP Markets AU: Is Europe’s energy crisis making a comeback? Will natural gas prices surge explosively?

Markets are awaiting the outcome of labor negotiations between Australia’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) companies and their workers. Notably, earlier this month, news of a potential strike by workers at these firms triggered a sharp spike in European natural gas prices—surging 40% overnight, the largest one-day gain since March 2022. From a fundamentals perspective, Australia ranks among the world’s top LNG exporters. Chevron and Woodside jointly operate three major LNG projects there—the Wheatstone, Gorgon, and North West Shelf facilities—which collectively account for roughly 10% of global LNG exports. Earlier this month, workers at all three LNG plants voted in favor of striking. A majority of workers at the North West Shelf project have already notified Woodside that they may begin striking as early as September 2. Woodside held talks with unions on August 23 local time; if no progress is made, the strike could commence on September 2. Earlier that same day, Woodside stated it had no new updates on the negotiations to share. Industry insiders point out that Australia—among the world’s largest LNG suppliers—faces heightened risk of export disruption, which has already driven up natural gas prices across Asia and Europe this month. With the Northern Hemisphere preparing for winter, both Woodside and Chevron’s facilities now face strike threats. Such industrial action could place up to 10% of global LNG supply at risk. It remains unclear how long it would take for a strike to materially affect exports. Shell’s CEO remarked earlier on August 23 local time that strikes at Australian LNG plants are possible—but that no significant shifts in hedging or purchasing behavior have yet emerged as a result. Zoe Yujnovich, Shell’s Integrated Gas and Upstream Director, added that LNG importers have not engaged in ‘substantial’ hedging or procurement adjustments in response to concerns over potential supply disruptions from Australia. She believes the market reaction to the possibility of an Australian LNG strike has been exaggerated. However, Dominic Gallagher, Head of Business at broker Tullett Prebon, stated: “Any news could trigger a price surge. Market developments will drive the trend, as European supply remains notably tight.” Additionally, the extension of seasonal maintenance at Norway’s large Troll gas field has reduced Norwegian exports, further tightening supply conditions in the European market.

Shell Calls Australia's Gas Reserve Plan a 'Sledgehammer' Risking Market Failure

Oct 12, 2026

Shell criticized Australia's new domestic gas reservation policy, warning it acts as a heavy-handed intervention that could drive prices below production costs and cause market failure. The legislation requires exporters to reserve up to 20% of output for local use starting in 2028.

reuters

Shell Calls Australia's Gas Reserve Plan a 'Sledgehammer' Risking Market Failure

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