Six major oil giants earned 5 billion RMB per day in the first half of the year, with combined profits totaling $135.6 billion.

Chevron also delivered strong performance: net profit for the first half reached $14.77 billion, surging 115% year-on-year. Its Q2 profit hit $12 billion—nearly fivefold higher than the $2.5 billion recorded a year earlier. Operating cash flow totaled $25.1 billion, up 82% year-on-year. Among European majors, TotalEnergies posted adjusted net profit of $11.4 billion for the first half, up 47% year-on-year; Shell’s adjusted net profit stood at $9.84 billion, up 70.2%; and BP saw the largest growth—its profit soared 139% to $8.93 billion. The six companies collectively generated approximately $135.6 billion (roughly RMB 915.15 billion) in profit—equivalent to daily net earnings of $749 million (about RMB 5.056 billion). Earning RMB 5 billion per day exceeds the full-year revenue of many listed companies. II. Three Engines Driving Windfall Profits This windfall is no accident—it results from the simultaneous convergence of three powerful forces. First Engine: Soaring Oil Prices. Ongoing Middle East conflicts continue disrupting global supply chains. Following the outbreak of U.S.-Iran tensions, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the conduit for nearly 20% of the world’s crude oil—faced severe constraints. Saudi Aramco’s output dropped sharply by 25% quarter-on-quarter to 9.46 million barrels of oil equivalent per day—the steepest decline among the six majors. While production fell, prices surged: Q2 Brent crude averaged significantly higher than Q1. Lower output coupled with higher prices enabled oil companies to reap extraordinary gains. Second Engine: Output Expansion. The broad-based profit surge reflects a competitive race centered on asset quality. ExxonMobil achieved its highest upstream production in over two decades, with Permian Basin output exceeding 1.8 million barrels per day. Chevron benefited from acquisitions—including Hess—and increased Permian output, achieving record upstream oil and gas production; its Q2 output rose 20% year-on-year. High-quality fields are now entering a phase of explosive output growth. Third Engine: Refining Windfalls. Russia’s loss of refining capacity, Middle Eastern supply disruptions, tight feedstock availability for Asian refineries, and globally depleted inventories have pushed global refining margins to historic highs. Chevron’s refineries set a new record for crude processing capacity at 1.07 million barrels per day, with utilization exceeding 97%. TotalEnergies’ refining and chemicals division posted adjusted net operating profit of $3.4 billion for the first half—nearly five times higher year-on-year. Shell’s Q2 refining margin rose 41% quarter-on-quarter to $24 per barrel, while its chemicals and products division posted its strongest adjusted earnings since Q3 2021. These refining windfalls contributed substantial incremental profits for the oil majors. With all three engines firing simultaneously, the six giants’ profits have surged to unprecedented heights. III. From “Energy Transition Pioneers” Back to “Capital Discipline” During this high-oil-price cycle, strategic priorities among oil majors are undergoing profound shifts. European energy firms, having borne heavier pressure to transition away from fossil fuels in recent years, previously pledged to cut oil-and-gas investments and scale up into new energy. Yet reality has intervened: new-energy projects deliver low returns, while energy security concerns have reemerged. Over the past two years, European companies have clearly pivoted—shifting from “energy transition pioneers” back toward “capital discipline.” BP’s newly appointed CEO Meg O’Neill explicitly stated that the company has made significant progress strengthening its balance sheet.

Super oil majors are raking it in! Q2 profits are poised to set a record—but this may mark the peak of the boom.

So far this year, global geopolitical crises have remained tense, causing international oil prices to swing wildly yet remain broadly elevated—making them one of the primary drivers behind persistently high inflation. At the same time, soaring oil prices translate directly into fat margins on petroleum product sales, enabling supermajors to earn enormous profits. According to media reports, second-quarter profits for oil majors are expected to reach $50 billion—on track to set a new historical record. Yet amid widespread global political and economic turmoil, this golden period may prove short-lived. On one hand, recession risks are mounting, potentially dampening global oil demand; on the other, governments in Europe and North America are either imposing windfall taxes on oil majors or pressuring them to boost output and slash fuel prices. These factors prompted Ahmed Ben Salem, analyst at Oddo BHF, to issue the following forecast: “Profits for (oil majors) are highly likely to peak in Q2 or Q3, followed by a modest decline.” “The looming recession is already calming things down.” Oil barons riding high oil prices are raking it in. According to media reports, second-quarter profits for the world’s five largest oil majors—ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP—are projected to exceed those recorded during the 2008 oil price spike—when crude peaked at $147 per barrel—setting a new historical record. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico’s 3:2:1 crack spread—a rough proxy for crude refining profitability—exploded to an average of $48.84 per barrel in Q2, more than doubling year-on-year. Using a similar methodology, TotalEnergies’ profit at variable cost tripled to $145.70 per barrel. Shell expects surging demand for petroleum products to lift its Q2 refining profit by $1 billion. According to Bloomberg-compiled estimates, ExxonMobil’s Q2 revenue is projected to surpass the sum of its previous nine quarters’ revenues. Its downstream business is the largest among all supermajors. The main reason oil majors are enjoying such massive profits lies in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which triggered a sharp global energy price surge—crude oil, refined products, and natural gas prices all briefly shattered historical records.

Shell expects refineries to almost double the profit from every barrel of fuel made

6 hours ago

Shell forecasts record refining margins of $42 per barrel in Q3 due to global fuel shortages, boosting Q2 profits to nearly $10 billion. The company also raised its gas production outlook following its ARC Resources acquisition.

theguardian

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