Canada, striving to become an energy superpower

Canada's liquefied natural gas (LNG) era has officially begun. In addition to oil, Canada is also one of the world’s major producers and exporters of natural gas. As of January 1, 2020, Canada’s remaining proved natural gas reserves stood at 24 trillion cubic meters—ranking among the world’s highest and matching Australia’s reserves. In 2024, Canada produced 194.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas, ranking fifth globally—behind the United States, Russia, Iran, and China—and ahead of Australia, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter. On October 1, 2025, Rystad Energy published an article titled “Canada’s LNG Era Has Officially Begun” on the website OilPrice.com. Rystad Energy noted that Canada’s first LNG shipment departed on June 30, 2025, marking Canada’s formal entry as a new LNG exporting nation after six years of development. By the mid-2030s, projects such as Woodfibre LNG, Cedar LNG, and Ksi Lisims LNG could raise Canada’s total LNG liquefaction capacity to 6.1 billion cubic feet per day. On June 30, 2025, the long-awaited Canadian LNG facility exported its first cargo from the Kitimat plant in British Columbia—signaling Canada’s official entry into the global LNG export club. The Canada LNG project is a joint venture involving Shell (40%, lead partner), Petronas (25%), PetroChina (15%), Mitsubishi (15%), and Korea Gas Corporation (5%). It achieved a key milestone six years after the final investment decision was made. Natural gas prices in Western Canada remain exceptionally low, primarily due to oversupply by operators pursuing aggressive growth plans and bottlenecks in transporting gas both within the basin and to other markets. Consequently, operators have been awaiting the launch of the Canada LNG project to boost production and lift prices. However, as Rystad Energy analysts wrote in October 2024, robust 2025 production plans by Canada’s major operators—combined with high output levels from smaller private producers—mean the market will remain oversupplied even after the Canada LNG project commences operations. Indeed, this situation has already materialized in 2025: since the project’s launch, the average spot price at the Alberta Energy Exchange (AECO) over the past three months has hovered near USD 0.55 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Seasonal factors are also at play—summer typically brings weaker basin demand and lower gas prices. Moreover, although feedgas demand from the Canada LNG project has increased, the market remains fundamentally oversupplied. So far, output ramp-up at the Canada LNG facility has been slow, largely because new facilities frequently encounter operational issues. In early August 2025, operational problems with a gas turbine reduced Line 1’s utilization rate to nearly 50%, slowing cargo loading. In August, shipments averaged one cargo every nine days—compared to one cargo every four days per production line under full-capacity operation.

The Six Major Oil Majors Earned RMB 5 Billion Daily in the First Half of the Year, with Combined Profits Reaching USD 135.6 Billion

Second Engine: Production Release. Underlying the broad-based profit surge is a competition over asset quality. ExxonMobil’s upstream production hit a more-than-20-year high, with output from the Permian Basin exceeding 1.8 million barrels per day. Chevron benefited from acquisitions—including Hess assets—and higher Permian Basin output, achieving record-high upstream oil and gas production; its Q2 production rose 20% year-on-year. High-quality oilfields are now entering a phase of explosive production growth. Third Engine: Refining Windfall Profits. Russia’s diminished refining capacity, supply disruptions in the Middle East, tight feedstock availability for Asian refineries, and globally low inventories have pushed global refining margins to historic highs. Chevron’s refineries set a new record for crude processing capacity at 1.07 million barrels per day, with utilization exceeding 97%. TotalEnergies’ refining and chemicals division posted adjusted net operating profit of USD 3.4 billion in the first half of the year—a nearly fivefold increase year-on-year. Shell’s Q2 refining margin rose 41% quarter-on-quarter to USD 24 per barrel, while its chemicals and products division posted its strongest adjusted earnings since Q3 2021. These refining windfalls contributed significantly to the majors’ incremental profits. With all three engines firing simultaneously, the combined profits of the six major oil companies reached an all-time high. III. From “Energy Transition Pioneer” Back to “Capital Discipline” During this high-oil-price cycle, strategic priorities among oil majors are undergoing profound shifts. European energy companies faced heightened pressure to transition over the past few years, pledging to cut oil-and-gas investments and scale up aggressively into new energy. Yet reality has intervened: new-energy projects deliver low returns, and energy security concerns have re-emerged. Over the past two years, European companies have clearly pivoted—from “energy transition pioneers” back toward “capital discipline.” BP’s newly appointed CEO Meg O’Neill explicitly stated that the company has made significant progress strengthening its balance sheet. BP has taken numerous recent actions: selling its Gelsenkirchen refinery; agreeing to sell its Austrian retail business; announcing its intention to divest its UK North Sea operations; and planning to sell its U.S. biogas business, Archaea. According to the Financial Times, BP is in advanced negotiations with a consortium backed by Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund to sell its solar business Lightsource—redirecting resources toward higher-returning oil-and-gas operations. Shell, too, is advancing large-scale M&A and asset sales. On July 15, Shell announced a USD 16.4 billion acquisition of Canada’s ARC Resources—the largest deal since 2015—aimed at reinforcing its leadership in Canadian LNG and shale gas. Simultaneously, Shell sold over 2,000 Jiffy Lube quick-lube outlets for USD 1.3 billion and divested its Indian renewable energy platform Sprng Energy for USD 1.8 billion. TotalEnergies has pursued a differentiated path, deepening its integrated power strategy. It acquired a 50% stake in flexible generation assets across four countries from EPH; made a final investment decision on the Mirrny wind farm project (1 GW + 600 MWh storage) in Kazakhstan; and broke ground on a 440-MW photovoltaic power station in the Philippines. As of the end of April 2026, TotalEnergies had nearly 36 GW of installed renewable power generation capacity. Yet the company is also adjusting its asset portfolio—selling all its distributed PV assets across seven European countries.

Shell to Double LNG Canada Plant in Multibillion-Dollar Plan

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Shareholders approved Shell's plan to double LNG Canada's export capacity to 28 million metric tons annually amid global supply shortages. The expansion targets Asian demand following Middle East geopolitical disruptions, with commercial operations expected in the early 2030s.

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