Tianqi Lithium expects its net profit for the first three quarters to surge 27–32 times year-on-year; Bloomberg data is the key variable.

On the evening of October 19, 2026, Tianqi Lithium (SZSE: 002466; HKEX: 09696) released its earnings forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.1 billion–6.0 billion for the first three quarters of 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 2,734.97%–3,235.26%. A major driver behind this explosive growth is Tianqi Lithium’s equity-method accounting for investment income from its associate company SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A., or Chilean Chemical and Mining Company). Crucially, Tianqi Lithium explicitly stated that its calculation of this investment income is based on Bloomberg’s forecast of SQM’s Q3 2026 earnings per share (EPS) and related metrics. SQM’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2026 is highly likely to have surged dramatically. SQM reported net profits of USD 365 million in Q1 2026 and USD 660 million in Q2 2026. A group of institutions—including Bloomberg—forecast SQM’s Q3 2026 EPS at USD 2.02–2.11, translating to an estimated net profit of USD 577 million–603 million. If these forecasts prove reasonably accurate, SQM’s cumulative net profit for the first three quarters of 2026 would fall between USD 1.602 billion and USD 1.628 billion—up 296.53%–302.97% year-on-year compared to USD 404 million in the same period of 2025. Tianqi Lithium holds an indirect 21.90% stake in SQM; thus, its investment income from SQM for the first three quarters of 2026 is estimated at USD 351 million–357 million, equivalent to RMB 2.491 billion–2.531 billion. It must be emphasized that all these calculations hinge on the accuracy of Bloomberg’s forecasts. Er’er Finance notes that since Q1 2022, whenever SQM had not yet disclosed its quarterly financial results, Tianqi Lithium has used Bloomberg’s forecasts to estimate its investment income from SQM. Any subsequent discrepancies are reconciled and adjusted in the following quarter upon SQM’s official financial disclosure. According to Tianqi Lithium, as SQM is listed on both the Santiago Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange, its quarterly financial reports are subject to disclosure rules in both jurisdictions—rules that mandate later reporting deadlines than Tianqi Lithium’s own earnings preview timeline. Consequently, Tianqi Lithium cannot disclose its financial results prior to SQM’s official announcement. Therefore, its financial modeling incorporates Bloomberg’s forecasts to estimate SQM’s Q3 2026 operating results and, accordingly, calculates its associated investment income based on its ownership stake.

Tianqi Lithium’s profits soar by 1,800%!

Tianqi Lithium: Reborn from the ashes! On April 20, Tianqi Lithium released its Q1 2026 earnings forecast. The company projected net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.7–2.0 billion for Q1 2026—a staggering year-on-year increase of 1,530.31%–1,818.01%, exceeding the entire 2025 annual net profit by more than fivefold! Tianqi Lithium attributed this dramatic profit surge to two main factors: First, improved industry prosperity. This is indeed factual: In Q1 2026, China’s new-energy vehicle market fully rebounded, with over half of mainstream brands reporting sequential sales growth exceeding 70%; meanwhile, lithium carbonate prices continued rising, reaching RMB 172,500 per ton on April 20—an increase of nearly 50% from the beginning of the year. Second, strong performance by its investee company SQM, which generated substantially higher investment income year-on-year. So who exactly is SQM—and what is Tianqi Lithium’s history with it? Looking ahead, can SQM continue delivering substantial profits for Tianqi Lithium? An audacious RMB 28-billion bet Securing eight years of profit streams SQM—short for Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.—holds the most valuable asset in the global lithium industry: exclusive mining and operational rights to the Atacama Salt Flat in Chile, the world’s largest lithium-rich brine deposit. For Tianqi Lithium—a company whose core business spans lithium resource development, lithium concentrate production, and lithium chemical manufacturing—this asset is irresistibly strategic. Moreover, Tianqi Lithium has long pursued lithium resources via equity acquisitions. In 2013, it acquired Talison, gaining control of Greenbushes—the world’s highest-output spodumene mine. In 2014, it acquired a 20% stake in Zhongguo Xizang Zabuye, securing exclusive exploitation rights to Zabuye Salt Flat—the largest lithium brine deposit in Asia. Thus, in 2018, Tianqi Lithium set its sights on SQM. That year, it raised USD 4.066 billion (approximately RMB 2.7811 billion at the exchange rate prevailing on the payment date) entirely through self-funded sources to acquire a 23.77% stake in SQM. Recall that at the end of the previous year, Tianqi Lithium’s net assets stood at only RMB 10.635 billion, and its cash balance was merely RMB 5.524 billion. Paying RMB 2.8 billion was, quite literally, astronomical for the company. Faced with this challenge, Tianqi Lithium adopted an all-or-nothing approach—securing USD 3.5 billion in loans from several banks. By the end of 2018, Tianqi Lithium’s short-term borrowings and long-term borrowings reached RMB 1.941 billion and RMB 25.326 billion respectively—2.31 times and 17.67 times higher than their levels at the end of 2017. Its debt-to-asset ratio soared from 40.39% to 73.26%. Its cash balance also plummeted—from RMB 5.524 billion to RMB 1.943 billion—shrinking by nearly two-thirds within just one year. This RMB 2.8-billion acquisition was, without exaggeration, a high-stakes gamble for Tianqi Lithium. The outcome proved Tianqi Lithium had placed the right bet. The acquisition delivered immediate and profound benefits: With this single transaction, Tianqi Lithium secured a rock-solid lithium supply chain. In the very year of acquisition, SQM supplied 13% of the world’s lithium output, while Talison—the asset Tianqi Lithium had previously acquired—supplied 27%. Together, Tianqi Lithium controlled 40% of global lithium supply.

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