Among Tianqi Lithium, Eve Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium, which has the strongest long-term investment value, analyzed from all perspectives?

【Answer 1】 Greenbushes spodumene mine currently operates five lithium concentrate processing plants, with a combined nameplate capacity of 2.14 million tonnes per year. During the reporting period, Talison maintained stable and orderly operations, producing a total of 1.35 million tonnes of lithium concentrate for the year—1.30 million tonnes of chemical-grade and 50,000 tonnes of technical-grade concentrate. Additionally, the Chemical-Grade No.3 processing plant completed its initial commissioning and successfully produced qualified products on January 30, 2026; full ramp-up to design capacity is expected within the year. From a capacity perspective, Greenbushes’ annualized capacity stood at 1.62 million tonnes at the start of 2026 and will rise to 2.14 million tonnes by year-end, yielding an average annual capacity of approximately 1.88 million tonnes. Based on last year’s 1.62-million-tonne annualized capacity—which delivered 1.35 million tonnes of SC6 lithium concentrate—the corresponding utilization rate implies that this year’s average capacity of 1.88 million tonnes could yield roughly 1.57 million tonnes of SC6 lithium concentrate. Under the industry’s standard conversion ratio—approximately 7.5 tonnes of lithium concentrate required to produce 1 tonne of lithium carbonate—1.57 million tonnes of SC6 concentrate translates into an equivalent lithium carbonate (LCE) production capacity of ~210,000 tonnes. From an equity and consolidation standpoint, Tianqi Lithium exercises de facto control over Greenbushes’ core assets through a multi-tiered holding structure: it holds controlling interest in TLEA, which in turn indirectly owns shares in Wodgina and Talison—meeting accounting standards’ requirements for consolidation and enabling full inclusion of Greenbushes’ operational data in Tianqi’s consolidated financial statements. However, due to the joint venture structure, Tianqi’s actual resource equity stake in the Greenbushes mine stands at only 26.01%, with the remainder held by partners such as IGO. Applying this equity percentage, Tianqi’s attributable LCE production capacity from the Greenbushes spodumene mine amounts to 54,600 tonnes LCE. (II) Brine Resources In December 2018, Tianqi Lithium acquired a 23.77% stake in SQM, becoming its second-largest shareholder; its current holding has been adjusted to approximately 21.90%. As early as August 2014, Tianqi completed the acquisition of a 20% stake in Zhabye Salt Lake in Shigatse, Tibet—securing strategic access to high-quality domestic lithium brine resources. Per SQM’s production guidance, its total lithium salt output in 2026 is projected at 260,000 tonnes LCE (including output from Australia’s Mt. Holland project). However, under Chile’s nationalization policy, 33,500 tonnes LCE are allocated to the Chilean government; excluding this portion, SQM’s controllable lithium salt output stands at 226,500 tonnes LCE. With its 21.90% equity stake, Tianqi is entitled to approximately 49,600 tonnes LCE of SQM’s 2026 lithium salt production. According to Tibet Mining’s 2025 annual report: “With the official commissioning of Phase II of the Zhabye Salt Lake project on September 30, the company’s designed annual lithium carbonate capacity reaches 12,000 tonnes. The project is developed and operated by Tibet Mining and holds significant strategic importance for China’s domestic brine lithium extraction industry and upstream resource security system.” Assuming a six-month ramp-up period, Zhabye Salt Lake Phase II is expected to produce ~11,000 tonnes LCE in 2026. Applying Tianqi’s 20% equity stake yields an attributable Zhabye output of ~2,200 tonnes LCE in 2026. Therefore, Tianqi Lithium’s total attributable mineral-side LCE production capacity amounts to approximately 106,400 tonnes LCE.

Will lithium carbonate see a turnaround in 2026?

【Answer 2】 Europe: Better-than-expected. We forecast 48 GWh of new energy storage installations in 2025, representing a 92% year-on-year increase. European countries have introduced large-scale energy storage capacity guarantee mechanisms, and project approval processes have accelerated in tandem—driving a substantial upward revision to our earlier forecast for European energy storage installations. We now expect 2025 growth to reach 92%. 1.3.2 Demand Review for 2025: New Energy Passenger Vehicles — Steady Annual Growth, Europe Slightly Better-Than-Expected Global: In line with expectations. Global sales volume is projected at ~21.5 million units, up ~26% year-on-year—close to the end-of-2024 consensus forecast of 21%. China: In line with expectations. Sales volume is projected at 16.3 million units, up ~27% year-on-year. (1) In aggregate terms, steady growth was sustained throughout the year, supported by the vehicle trade-in subsidy program. However, the year-on-year growth rate declined from 35% in 2024, primarily due to: (i) a relatively high base in 2024 driven by strong trade-in effects; and (ii) natural deceleration as the industry matures. (2) Structurally, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) growth weakened, mainly because: (i) BYD accumulated high inventory in 2024 and entered a destocking phase in 2025; and (ii) PHEV product iteration hit a bottleneck—BYD’s and Li Auto’s 2025 PHEV offerings showed diminished competitiveness. Europe: Better-than-expected. Sales volume is projected at 3.96 million units, up ~28% year-on-year. Key drivers include policy tailwinds: (i) the EU’s carbon emission targets were formally set at the beginning of the year—targets tighten every five years, but the previous two rounds were delayed by two years each. This round mandates compliance with the 2025–2027 average target, imposing stricter requirements and significantly strengthening automakers’ incentives to sell new energy vehicles; and (ii) the UK resumed its EV purchase subsidy program in July. United States: In line with expectations. Sales volume is projected at 1.61 million units, flat year-on-year (0% growth). With the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) EV purchase subsidies expiring on October 1, consumers rushed purchases in Q3, leading to a year-on-year decline in Q4. 2. How Will Future Supply Evolve? 2.1 Chile: Incremental supply hinges on SQM’s new capacity; no undeveloped brine projects on the horizon Chile’s 2025 lithium output is projected at 294,000 tonnes LCE, up 7.3% year-on-year, representing 19% of global supply. Only SQM and Albemarle (ALB) operate brine assets in Chile in 2025, with SQM producing 225,000 tonnes LCE and ALB producing 69,000 tonnes LCE. In terms of product mix, SQM’s ramp-up of lithium hydroxide capacity has driven a notable increase in Chilean lithium hydroxide exports—primarily destined for Japan and Korea. Looking ahead to 2026, SQM’s 100,000-tonne lithium hydroxide capacity ramp-up (converted from carbonate) is expected to lift Chile’s total lithium salt shipments to 304,000 tonnes LCE, up 3.4% year-on-year. Longer-term, new brine capacity additions in Chile remain limited: (i) the Chilean government strictly caps brine extraction volumes, constraining output expansion at existing projects; (ii) companies have reduced capital expenditures, with no announced expansions; and (iii) although foreign participation in brine development has become somewhat more permissible, the Chilean government’s reassertion of state ownership over brine resources—combined with lengthy development timelines for greenfield projects—introduces heightened uncertainty around new project execution. 2.2 Argentina: 2025–2026 marks a concentrated ramp-up period for new capacity; supply growth will slow markedly in 2027–2028 Argentina’s 2025 lithium carbonate output is projected at 105,000 tonnes, up 55% year-on-year, representing 7% of global supply. New brine projects commissioned in 2024 and 2025 are operating at utilization rates below 30%.

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