Among Tianqi Lithium, Eve Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium, which offers the strongest long-term investment value, analyzed from all perspectives?

Greenbushes spodumene mine currently operates five lithium concentrate processing plants, with a combined nameplate capacity of 2.14 million tonnes per year. During the reporting period, Talison operated stably and produced 1.35 million tonnes of lithium concentrate annually—1.30 million tonnes of chemical-grade and 50,000 tonnes of technical-grade concentrate. Additionally, Chemical Grade No. 3 processing plant has completed initial commissioning and successfully produced qualified products on January 30, 2026; full ramp-up to design capacity is expected within the year. From a capacity perspective, Greenbushes’ annualized capacity stood at 1.62 million tonnes at the start of 2026 and will rise to 2.14 million tonnes by year-end, yielding an average annual capacity of approximately 1.88 million tonnes. Based on last year’s 1.62-million-tonne annualized capacity—which delivered 1.35 million tonnes of SC6 lithium concentrate—the implied utilization rate suggests that this year’s average capacity of 1.88 million tonnes could yield roughly 1.57 million tonnes of SC6 lithium concentrate. Under the industry’s standard conversion ratio—approximately 7.5 tonnes of lithium concentrate required to produce 1 tonne of lithium carbonate—1.57 million tonnes of SC6 concentrate translates into an equivalent lithium carbonate production capacity of ~210,000 tonnes LCE. From an equity and consolidation standpoint, Tianqi Lithium exercises de facto control over Greenbushes’ core assets through a multi-tiered holding structure: it holds controlling interest in TLEA, which indirectly owns shares in Wodgina and Talison—meeting accounting standards for consolidation and enabling full inclusion of Greenbushes’ operational data in Tianqi’s consolidated financial statements. However, due to the joint venture structure, Tianqi’s actual resource equity stake in the Greenbushes mine stands at only 26.01%, with the remainder held by partners such as IGO. Applying this equity percentage, Tianqi Lithium’s attributable lithium carbonate capacity from Greenbushes amounts to 54,600 tonnes LCE. (II) Brine Resources In December 2018, Tianqi Lithium acquired a 23.77% stake in SQM, becoming its second-largest shareholder; its current holding has been adjusted to approximately 21.90%. As early as August 2014, Tianqi Lithium acquired a 20% stake in Zhaby Co., Ltd., securing strategic access to the high-quality Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet—a key domestic lithium brine resource. Per SQM’s guidance, its total lithium salt output in 2026 is projected at 260,000 tonnes LCE (including Australia’s Mt. Holland project). However, due to Chilean nationalization policies, 33,500 tonnes LCE are allocated to the Chilean government; excluding this portion, SQM’s controllable lithium salt output stands at 226,500 tonnes LCE. With its 21.90% equity stake, Tianqi Lithium’s attributable share of SQM’s 2026 lithium salt output is estimated at ~49,600 tonnes LCE. According to Tibet Mining’s 2025 Annual Report: “With the official commissioning of Phase II of the Zabuye Salt Lake project on September 30, the company’s designed annual lithium carbonate capacity reaches 12,000 tonnes. The project is developed and operated by Tibet Mining, holding significant strategic importance for China’s domestic brine lithium extraction industry and upstream new-energy resource security.” Assuming a six-month ramp-up period, Zabuye Phase II is expected to produce ~11,000 tonnes LCE in 2026. Applying Tianqi’s 20% equity stake, its attributable lithium salt output from Zabuye in 2026 is estimated at ~2,200 tonnes LCE. Therefore, Tianqi Lithium’s total attributable mineral-resource-based lithium carbonate capacity stands at approximately 106,400 tonnes LCE.

Intermediate Chemicals Supermarket: 2026 Lithium Carbonate Market Outlook

Europe: Better-than-expected. We forecast 48 GWh of newly installed energy storage capacity in 2025, representing a 92% year-on-year increase. European countries have launched large-scale energy storage capacity guarantee mechanisms, and project approval processes have accelerated concurrently—driving a substantial upward revision to Europe’s energy storage installation forecast. Overall, the growth rate in 2025 is expected to reach 92%. 1.4 2025 Demand Review: New Energy Passenger Vehicles — Steady Full-Year Sales Growth, Europe Slightly Better-Than-Expected Global: Broadly in line with expectations. Global NEV sales are projected at ~21.5 million units in 2025, up ~26% year-on-year—close to the end-of-2024 consensus forecast of 21%. China: In line with expectations. We forecast 16.3 million NEV sales in 2025, up ~27% year-on-year. (1) In aggregate, stable growth was sustained throughout the year, supported by vehicle trade-in incentives; however, the YoY growth rate declined from 35% in 2024, primarily due to: ① a relatively high base resulting from strong trade-in effects in 2024; and ② natural deceleration as the industry matures. (2) Structurally, plug-in hybrid (PHEV) growth stalled, mainly because: ① BYD accumulated excessive inventory in 2024 and entered a destocking phase in 2025; and ② PHEV product iteration hit a bottleneck—BYD’s and Li Auto’s 2025 PHEV offerings showed diminished competitiveness. Europe: Better-than-expected. Shanghai Tupu Chemical Co., Ltd.’s New Energy Division analysts forecast 3.96 million NEV sales in Europe in 2025, up ~28% YoY. Key drivers include policy tailwinds: ① Early-year confirmation of stricter carbon emission targets: The EU tightens its carbon targets every five years. The previous two rounds were delayed by two years each for compliance; this round mandates meeting the 2025–2027 average target—a notably stringent requirement—significantly boosting automakers’ incentive to sell NEVs; and ② The UK reinstated EV purchase subsidies in July. United States: In line with expectations. We forecast 1.61 million NEV sales in 2025, flat YoY. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) EV purchase subsidy expired on October 1, triggering consumer front-loading in Q3; consequently, Q4 saw a YoY decline. 2. Supply Outlook 2.1 Chile: Incremental supply hinges on SQM’s new capacity; no undeveloped brine projects on the horizon Chile’s 2025 lithium output is projected at 294,000 tonnes LCE, up 7.3% YoY, accounting for 19% of global supply. Only SQM and Albemarle (ALB) operate brine projects in Chile in 2025, with projected outputs of 225,000 tonnes and 69,000 tonnes LCE, respectively. In terms of product mix, SQM’s ramp-up of lithium hydroxide capacity has driven a notable increase in Chilean lithium hydroxide exports—primarily destined for Japan and South Korea. Looking ahead to 2026, SQM’s 100,000-tonne lithium hydroxide capacity ramp-up (converted from lithium carbonate) is expected to lift Chile’s total lithium salt shipments to 304,000 tonnes LCE, up 3.4% YoY. Longer-term, new brine capacity additions in Chile remain limited: ① The Chilean government strictly caps brine extraction volumes, constraining output expansion at existing projects; ② Companies have reduced capital expenditures, halting expansions; and ③ Although foreign participation in brine development has been cautiously liberalized, the nationalization of brine rights—and the inherent long lead times for greenfield projects—introduce heightened uncertainty around new project development. 2.2 Argentina: 2025–2026 marks a concentrated ramp-up period; supply growth slows markedly in 2027–2028 Argentina’s 2025 lithium carbonate output is projected at 105,000 tonnes, up 55% YoY, representing 7% of global supply.

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM) March 2026 Earnings Forecast

May 26, 2026

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA will report March 2026 earnings on May 26, with consensus forecasts projecting $1.72 billion revenue and $1.78 EPS amid fluctuating lithium prices.

Intellectia AI

2026-03-31

SQM Proposes 50% 2025 Earnings Payout, Stock Rises 7.3%

2026-04-13

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile Stock Hits 52-Week High

2026-04-15

SQM (NYSE: SQM) files updated technical report summaries on Chile properties

2026-04-15

SQM Files Salar de Atacama Technical Report Summary and Consents

2026-04-17

Sociedad Quimica y Minera Shares Fall 7.2% Amid Analyst Concerns