White Petroleum in the Carbon-Neutral Era: ALB, SQM, and LTHM—A Timely Revaluation of Lithium Mining Assets

According to information shared at the 2020 investor briefing, the company forecasts that battery-grade lithium demand will surge from 113,000 tonnes LCE in 2020 to 787,000 tonnes LCE by 2025—a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47%; meanwhile, battery capacity per vehicle is projected to increase by 28% to 55 kWh/vehicle by 2025. Through its Wave 2, Wave 3, and Wave 4 expansion programs, the company plans to scale up lithium production capacity to 450,000–500,000 tonnes annually. These initiatives include major projects such as establishing lithium conversion facilities in China and Australia. Under Wave 2, significant increases in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide sales are expected starting in 2022: the La Negra III/IV brine-based lithium facility in Chile is scheduled for completion mid-2021, adding 40,000 tonnes of annual lithium carbonate output; the Kemerton I/II spodumene-based lithium hydroxide facility in Australia, slated for completion by end-2021, will contribute 50,000 tonnes of annual lithium hydroxide capacity. Statistical analysis of Albemarle’s (ALB) future capacity ramp-up indicates rapid capacity deployment in both 2022 and 2023, accelerating revenue growth and earnings realization. We remain bullish on Albemarle’s resource moat and its disciplined, orderly capacity rollout. As the world’s leading lithium resource stock, Albemarle’s steady pace of capacity expansion aligns precisely with the explosive growth of the new-energy vehicle sector. Leveraging its robust sales capabilities, the company’s prospects look highly promising. Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) SQM is a global leader in the integrated production and sale of fertilizers, lithium, iodine, and industrial chemicals. The company produces specialty plant nutrients and chemicals. Its operations span several business segments: Specialty Plant Nutrition (SPN), engaged in organic fertilizer and nutrient solution manufacturing; Lithium and Derivatives, focused on lithium ore mining and lithium salt production; Iodine and Derivatives, involved in iodine and iodine derivative extraction and production; Industrial Chemicals, producing chemicals including sodium nitrate, potassium nitrate, and boric acid; Potassium, covering potassium chloride and potassium sulfate production; and Other Products and Services, encompassing ancillary support activities. This article focuses specifically on SQM’s lithium and derivatives business. SQM sources its products primarily from two key Chilean assets: the Caliche nitrate deposit in northern Chile and the Salar de Atacama brine deposit. The Caliche deposit hosts the world’s largest reserves of iodine and nitrates, while the Salar de Atacama brine deposit is exceptionally rich in lithium and potassium. SQM extracts raw materials from the Caliche nitrate deposit to manufacture specialty plant fertilizers and nitrate products for various industrial applications, as well as iodine and iodine derivatives. From the Salar de Atacama brine deposit, it extracts potassium-, lithium-, and sulfate-rich brines to produce potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, lithium solutions, and carnallite (magnesium chloride). Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are produced at its facility near Antofagasta, Chile. SQM distributes its products globally via an extensive distribution network spanning over 100 countries, with the majority of its revenue generated outside Chile.

Tianqi Lithium: The Global Lithium King’s Hidden Cards Are Now Being Played

Greenbushes Mine in Western Australia, the Salar de Atacama salt flat in Chile, and lithium chemical plants in Zhangjiagang (Jiangsu) and Shehong (Sichuan)—these geographic coordinates map out Tianqi Lithium’s global footprint. It does not manufacture batteries or electric vehicles; instead, it operates exclusively at the industry’s upstream—mining and processing the so-called “white petroleum.” Globally, one out of every five tonnes of spodumene concentrate originates from Tianqi’s Greenbushes Mine; moreover, Tianqi holds approximately 22% equity in SQM—the world’s largest brine-based lithium producer. Tianqi is the only Chinese lithium company possessing both top-tier hard-rock lithium mines and premier brine resources worldwide. On July 14, 2026, Tianqi Lithium stunned the entire lithium-ion battery sector with a profit forecast: projected attributable net profit for H1 2026 stands between RMB 2.85 billion and RMB 4.25 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3,276% to 4,935%; non-recurring net profit is expected to range from RMB 2.81 billion to RMB 4.2 billion, surging over 310,000% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, Q1 net profit already reached RMB 1.876 billion, while Q2 is projected to fall between RMB 0.974 billion and RMB 2.374 billion. The six-month net profit alone thus exceeds the full-year 2025 figure (RMB 0.458 billion) by six- to nine-fold. As of early August 2026, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have rebounded to around RMB 141,000 per tonne, and lithium spodumene concentrate prices stand at approximately USD 2,060 per tonne—up more than 70% from the 2025 trough of RMB 80,000 per tonne. Industry-wide capacity rationalization is now bearing fruit, and Tianqi’s low-cost advantage positions it among the biggest beneficiaries of this lithium price recovery. I. Why Is the Profit Range So Wide? The RMB 1.4 billion spread—from RMB 2.85 billion to RMB 4.25 billion—stems primarily from one factor: SQM, a veritable “black box.” Tianqi’s profits consist of two main components: profits from Greenbushes spodumene concentrate (relatively predictable) and investment income from its equity stake in SQM (highly unpredictable). The SQM issue lies in three aspects: timing lag—SQM’s financial reporting occurs after Tianqi’s earnings preview, forcing Tianqi to estimate blindly; reliance on external forecasts—Tianqi bases its calculation on Bloomberg’s projected Q2 EPS for SQM, yet Bloomberg’s own forecast itself constitutes a range; and SQM’s volatile earnings—lithium prices averaged ~USD 18/kg in Q1, and both volume and price are highly likely to rise further in Q2. Tianqi knows SQM earned substantially—but not exactly how much. This RMB 1.4 billion gap reflects almost entirely the “mystery box” of SQM’s Q2 performance. Given that Q1 net profit was already RMB 1.876 billion and Q2 is witnessing simultaneous volume and price growth, the most reasonable narrow-range estimate for H1 attributable net profit is approximately RMB 3.5–4.1 billion, with a central estimate of ~RMB 3.8 billion. II. Comprehensive Financial Snapshot In 2025, Tianqi Lithium achieved total operating revenue of RMB 10.35 billion and attributable net profit of RMB 0.458 billion—successfully turning profitable despite lithium prices plunging to the RMB 80,000/tonne nadir. Its spodumene concentrate business remained resilient: full-year sales volume reached 810,000 tonnes, average selling price stood at USD 821/tonne, and gross margin hit a remarkable 53%—a level far exceeding broad market expectations, underscoring the formidable profitability of Greenbushes Mine, one of the world’s lowest-cost hard-rock lithium mines. Entering 2026, performance has exploded. Q1 attributable net profit surged to RMB 1.876 billion, up 1,699% year-on-year; gross margin climbed to 62.66%, and net margin soared to 55.4%.

Sociedad Quimica y Minera (NYSE:SQM) Raised to "Strong-Buy" at Wall Street Zen

Oct 4, 2026

Wall Street Zen upgraded Sociedad Quimica y Minera to a "Strong-Buy" rating following strong quarterly earnings. The company beat estimates with an EPS of $2.31 and a 136.7% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.47 billion.

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