A super El Niño is coming—potentially the strongest on record. What adverse climate impacts will it have?

Precipitation will significantly decrease in West Pacific island nations such as Indonesia, the Philippines, northern Australia, and Papua New Guinea. During the 2015–2016 super El Niño event, extreme drought struck many parts of Indonesia, triggering months-long peatland forest fires; smoke haze drifted to Singapore and Malaysia, leading to a marked rise in respiratory illnesses. Eastern Australia suffered severe drought during the 1997–1998 event, causing a sharp decline in wheat production. If this event indeed reaches super El Niño intensity, drought conditions in the West Pacific region will once again pose a serious threat. In contrast to the West Pacific’s drought, abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific supply abundant moisture for ascending air currents, resulting in dramatically increased rainfall over central Pacific islands and along South America’s west coast. Northern Peru and Ecuador frequently experience torrential rains and flooding during super El Niño years. In 1997–1998, precipitation along northern Peru’s coast exceeded normal levels by several-fold, causing river overflows and severe damage to infrastructure. Central Chile and northern Argentina are also prone to anomalous rainfall during El Niño years, raising risks of landslides and debris flows. The western coast of South America normally features arid or semi-arid climates; urban and agricultural drainage systems are not designed for intense rainfall. Once precipitation exceeds historical extremes, losses multiply rapidly. Teleconnection effects in the Northern Hemisphere are equally pronounced. El Niño alters the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and jet stream position, pushing anomalous rainfall bands into the southern United States. Southern California and the Gulf Coast of Mexico tend to be wetter during strong El Niño years. Both the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 events brought persistent heavy rainfall to California, triggering floods and landslides. Notably, rainfall in California during the 2023–2024 event did not increase as expected; some studies attribute this to differences in the event’s spatial structure and the location of oceanic warm water—indicating that even strong El Niño events do not necessarily produce identical regional outcomes. Nevertheless, this does not alter the overall trend: given the larger scale projected for the 2026 event, above-normal rainfall remains highly probable across the southern U.S. East Africa typically experiences above-average rainfall from autumn through the following spring during El Niño years, increasing flood risk in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Meanwhile, southern Africa tends toward drought, with insufficient rainy-season precipitation in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa—leading to maize yield reductions. The South Asian and Southeast Asian monsoons are suppressed: during strong El Niño years, India’s summer monsoon weakens and rainfall declines. In 2015–2016, widespread drought hit India, severely impacting grain output. East Africa typically experiences above-average rainfall from autumn through the following spring during El Niño years, increasing flood risk in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Meanwhile, southern Africa tends toward drought, with insufficient rainy-season precipitation in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa—leading to maize yield reductions. The South Asian and Southeast Asian monsoons are also suppressed: during strong El Niño years, India’s summer monsoon weakens and rainfall declines. In 2015–2016, widespread drought hit India, severely impacting grain output. China occupies a relatively complex position: El Niño’s influence on East Asia is neither as direct nor as consistent as its impact on tropical regions. Overall, during El Niño development years, precipitation tends to increase across the Yangtze River Basin to southern China from autumn through winter, often bringing prolonged overcast and rainy periods, while precipitation decreases across northern China to the Huang-Huai region. Historical statistics show that after super El Niño years, the probability of cold, wet winters rises across southern China. Such conditions occurred widely across southern China during the winters of 2009–2010 and 2015–2016.

A super El Niño is hitting in 2026–2027! What changes will global agriculture face?

Crop Yield Assessment Under El Niño Drawing on GEOGLAM and FAO’s long-term yield data, El Niño’s impact on different crops varies dramatically: some suffer widespread yield losses and price hikes, while others actually benefit—earning the label “climate dividend crops.” 1. Rice: The Most Vulnerable Staple Crop—Global Output Drops Steadily by 1%–1.5% Rice thrives in warm, humid conditions and is extremely sensitive to precipitation shifts—making it the staple crop most severely impacted by El Niño. During El Niño episodes, global rice production consistently falls 1%–1.5% below average. Key global rice-growing regions—including India and Southeast Asia—face weakened monsoons, sharply reduced rainfall, and intensified heat stress, directly delaying transplanting, impairing grain filling, increasing spikelet sterility, and lowering yields. A clear example is the 2015–2016 super El Niño, when India’s main rice-producing areas saw yields drop by 3%, marking the largest decline in a decade. 2. Wheat: The Most Polarized Crop—Global Supply Pressure Sharply Rises Wheat is the most El Niño-sensitive cereal in the global food supply chain, exhibiting stark regional contrasts between gains and losses. FAO’s July 2026 forecast projects that global cereal output in the 2026/2027 season will fall 1.9% year-on-year to 2.98 billion tonnes, with wheat production down a steep 4.3%. Major losses stem from Australia’s winter wheat belt: under moderate El Niño conditions, Australian wheat yields drop ~20% below average. Morocco and southern South America’s wheat zones also see concurrent declines. Meanwhile, parts of Central Asia and the U.S. benefit from improved rainfall, posting modest yield increases. Overall, global wheat output dips slightly—but regional supply-demand imbalances and associated price volatility pose far greater risks than the absolute production change itself. 3. Maize: Stable Global Totals, but “Cliff-edge” Losses in Key Regions Maize exhibits high adaptability; regional gains and losses largely offset each other globally, keeping total output near average. Yet localized risks remain extremely high—especially in southern Africa, India, and northern Brazil. Notably, the peak phase of this El Niño (October 2026–March 2027) coincides precisely with southern Africa’s critical maize planting season. Historical data from extreme events show that during the 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 El Niño episodes, South African maize output fell by 20%, while Zimbabwe’s dropped a staggering 40%—triggering local food shortages in some areas. 4. Soybeans: The Sole Major Crop to Gain—A True “Climate Winner” Among all staple crops, soybeans are the only one consistently showing yield gains during El Niño years. GEOGLAM data indicate global soybean output rises 1.5%–2.0% above average during El Niño events. Southeastern South America and core U.S. soybean regions benefit from timely rainfall that alleviates drought stress, improves soil moisture, mitigates heat stress, and enhances pod-setting and seed-filling—boosting yields. Only minor declines occur in parts of India and southern Africa—insufficient to offset the global upward trend. 5. Cash Crops: Yield Losses Drive Price Hikes—Broad-Based Increases Likely for Oil and Grain Prices Tropical cash crops like palm oil and cocoa are highly vulnerable to climatic anomalies. El Niño-induced droughts in Southeast Asia and Central America reduce fruit-set rates, delay maturity, and shrink yields across plantations.

South Africa Corn Plantings Seen at Seven-Year Low on El Niño Risk

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South African farmers plan to cut corn plantings by 12.4% due to high input costs and drought risks. Reduced white corn production may drive food-price inflation, impacting monetary policy.

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South Africa Corn Plantings Seen at Seven-Year Low on El Niño Risk

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