With only eight days remaining until the U.S. soybean harvest, China has not purchased a single shipment—has Trump 'raised the white flag'?

According to reports, next month—just eight days from now—will mark the start of the soybean harvest season. In previous years, China would have already placed large orders by this time; yet this year, there has been no activity whatsoever. American soybean farmers are deeply anxious. Caleb Lagrand, President of the U.S. Soybean Association, even wrote a letter to Trump warning that growers are teetering on the brink of a 'trade and financial cliff' and cannot withstand a prolonged trade war with China. The Trump administration is well aware of this reality. As early as mid-January this year—just as the tariff war began in April—Japan’s Nikkei Asia reported that Chinese enterprises had frozen procurement orders for U.S. soybeans and corn and reduced imports of U.S. agricultural products, while simultaneously increasing purchases from Brazil and other countries. When U.S. soybeans failed to sell, Brazil shipped 2.4 million tons to China within just one week; Brazilian soybean farmers have already sold nearly three-quarters of their inventory and are holding onto the remainder, waiting for the trade war to continue and soybean prices to rise. Meanwhile, U.S. farmers can only sigh helplessly at their fields full of soybeans—and at steadily falling prices. Moreover, Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, explicitly stated in April that whether or not China imports U.S. feed grains and oilseeds has no impact on China’s food supply. From April until now—four months later—the U.S. agricultural crisis has deepened further. Trump’s decision to use American farmers’ livelihoods as leverage in his trade war with China has ultimately backfired. Rural voters have long been a critical pillar of Trump’s electoral support—and remain key to his chances of winning this year’s election—but farmers’ backing for him is undergoing complex shifts and reassessments. Long-term market losses caused by trade policy, labor shortages stemming from immigration policies, mounting economic pressures, and climate change have prompted some farmers to reevaluate their support—even leading to fragmentation and wavering loyalty. Lagrand himself, who wrote the critical letter to Trump, is a staunch Trump supporter who voted for him in all three previous presidential elections. Should soybean prices remain persistently low while production costs continue rising—further squeezing farmers’ finances—Trump’s political position will grow increasingly precarious.

CBOT soybean prices have hit a 20-month high.

Since early February, CBOT soybean futures have risen sharply, driven by multiple factors: first, President Trump’s claim that China would increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans; second, the introduction of U.S. biofuel tax credit policies, which boosted demand for soybean crushing; and third, adverse weather conditions across South America’s soybean-producing regions—leading to downward revisions in yield forecasts and delays in harvest progress. By the close of trading on February 27, the front-month CBOT soybean futures contract reached a peak of 1175 cents per bushel—the highest level since mid-June 2024. China’s Reported Increase in U.S. Soybean Purchases Boosts Prices On February 4, President Trump stated that China would raise its soybean purchases, increasing its annual import volume from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. This announcement lifted soybean prices to a two-month high—though market participants remain skeptical about the veracity of Trump’s claim. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly soybean export report, cumulative U.S. soybean sales to mainland China (including both shipped and unshipped volumes) for the 2025/26 marketing year (beginning September 1) stood at 10.664 million tons as of February 19, 2026—a 49.1% decline compared to 20.95 million tons during the same period last year. Total U.S. soybean sales for the 2025/26 marketing year to date amounted to 35.65 million tons, down 18.8% from 43.89 million tons in the prior year. Strong Domestic Demand for Soybean Crushing The U.S. government plans to require major refiners to cover at least half of their biodiesel blending exemptions—further reinforcing market expectations for robust demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks. Moreover, according to monthly crushing data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. soybean crushing volume in January reached 221.564 million bushels (equivalent to 6.647 million short tons)—a 1.52% decrease month-on-month but a 10.57% increase year-on-year.

Soybeans Rise as US Presses China to Boost Farm Goods Purchases

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Soybean futures rose as US officials pressured China to fulfill 25 million ton annual purchase pledges, pushing prices to $12 per bushel ahead of upcoming trade talks.

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Soybeans Rise as US Presses China to Boost Farm Goods Purchases

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