What is the magnitude and reason for S&P Global's revision to the 2026 oil demand forecast?

S&P Global Energy cut its global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 700,000 barrels per day due to the U.S.-Iran war, which has disrupted Middle Eastern energy supplies and suppressed demand in the second quarter.

How has the U.S.-Iran war affected global refining capacity and key fuel markets?

The war has affected approximately 178 refineries—about 40% of the world’s refining capacity—due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; diesel and jet fuel have experienced the most significant price impacts, while physical Dated Brent prices are being capped by large-scale drawdowns of strategic petroleum reserves by countries including Japan and South Korea.

S&P Global cuts 2026 oil demand forecast by 700,000 bpd due to Iran war

Apr 23, 2026

S&P Global Energy reduced its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 700,000 barrels per day due to U.S.-Iran war disruptions. The conflict significantly impacts Middle Eastern and Asian demand growth and affects 40% of global refining capacity.

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S&P Global cuts 2026 oil demand forecast by 700,000 bpd due to Iran war

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