From Plunge to Counterattack: How Will Lithium Carbonate Prices Perform in the Second Half of the Year?

Lithium mining stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past two weeks. Earlier, they plunged sharply: the lithium mining index hit a near-term high of 11,233.5 points on April 30, then entered a sustained downtrend—by July 9, it had fallen 37.83% from that peak. Yet today, the A-share lithium mining sector staged a synchronized rebound. Behind this reversal lie multiple fundamental catalysts converging simultaneously. Scanning recent news reveals a clear, three-pronged logic underpinning this volatility: corporate earnings, futures markets, and policy support—all firing at once. Earnings previews first delivered reassurance to the market. Several A-share lithium companies recently released preliminary earnings forecasts for the first half of 2026—and results are remarkably strong. Tianqi Lithium expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to range between RMB 2.85 billion and RMB 4.25 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of up to 4,934.91%; Rongye Shares forecasts similarly robust growth, with a maximum projected increase of 1,191.69%. Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Tibet Mining all anticipate substantial year-on-year turnarounds into profitability. According to Securities Daily, this earnings recovery is primarily driven by stabilizing and rebounding lithium prices. Tianqi’s announcement specifically notes that its equity-method investee SQM is expected to post sharply higher Q2 earnings year-on-year—boosting Tianqi’s investment income recognition. Interestingly, despite the upbeat earnings news, stock prices have remained relatively subdued. Market analysts told Securities Daily that the lithium industry’s supply-demand fundamentals have yet to undergo a structural turnaround; investors remain cautious about both the magnitude and sustainability of the lithium price rebound—hence the current paradox of 'hot earnings, cold stock prices.' Futures market volatility further reflects this ambivalence. The lithium carbonate front-month futures contract has swung wildly lately: on July 21, it plunged over 5%, only to rally 2.21% the next day, closing at RMB 143,300/ton. Today, intraday gains briefly exceeded 4%. On the spot market, Mysteel data shows today’s battery-grade lithium carbonate mid-price rose RMB 3,500/ton from yesterday to RMB 145,500/ton—closely tracking the futures rebound.

Tianqi Lithium: The Global Lithium Champion’s Hidden Strengths Are Now Materializing

Greenbushes Mine in Western Australia, the Atacama Salt Flat in Chile, and lithium chemical plants in Zhangjiagang (Jiangsu) and Shehong (Sichuan)—these geographic coordinates map Tianqi Lithium’s global footprint. It doesn’t manufacture batteries or electric vehicles; it operates exclusively at the industry’s upstream, extracting and processing lithium—the 'white petroleum' of the new energy era. Globally, one out of every five tons of lithium concentrate originates from Tianqi’s Greenbushes mine. Moreover, Tianqi holds approximately 22% of SQM—the world’s largest lithium brine producer—in Chile. Tianqi is the only Chinese lithium company possessing top-tier global hard-rock lithium mines *and* premier salt-flat resources. On July 14, 2026, Tianqi Lithium’s earnings preview sent shockwaves across the lithium battery sector: it forecast H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders between RMB 2.85 billion and RMB 4.25 billion—a year-on-year surge of 3,276% to 4,935%; non-recurring net profit was projected between RMB 2.81 billion and RMB 4.2 billion, with the upper end reflecting over a 310,000% year-on-year increase. Quarterly breakdowns show Q1 net profit already reached RMB 1.876 billion; Q2 is expected to range between RMB 0.974 billion and RMB 2.374 billion. Thus, H1 profit alone already exceeds Tianqi’s full-year 2025 net profit (RMB 0.458 billion) by six- to nine-fold. As of early August 2026, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have rebounded to around RMB 141,000/ton, while lithium concentrate prices stand at approximately USD 2,060/ton. From the 2025 low of RMB 80,000/ton, lithium carbonate prices have risen over 70%. Industry capacity rationalization is now bearing fruit—and Tianqi’s low-cost advantage positions it as one of the biggest beneficiaries of this lithium price rebound. I. Why Is the Earnings Forecast Range So Wide? The RMB 2.85–4.25 billion range spans RMB 1.4 billion—driven almost entirely by uncertainty surrounding SQM, a 'black box' in Tianqi’s earnings structure. Tianqi’s profits derive from two main sources: lithium concentrate profits from Greenbushes (relatively predictable) and investment income from its equity stake in SQM (highly unpredictable). SQM introduces three key uncertainties: (1) Timing lag—SQM reports financials *after* Tianqi issues its earnings preview, forcing Tianqi to estimate blindly; (2) Reliance on external forecasts—Tianqi bases its SQM estimates on Bloomberg’s projected Q2 EPS for SQM, itself a range-based forecast; (3) SQM’s own earnings volatility—Q1 lithium prices averaged ~USD 18/kg, and Q2 volume and pricing are both highly likely to rise further. Tianqi knows SQM earned substantially more—but not precisely how much. That RMB 1.4 billion spread represents nearly the entire 'mystery box' of SQM’s Q2 performance. Given Q1’s realized RMB 1.876 billion profit and the reality of Q2’s volume-and-price expansion, the most reasonable narrow-range estimate for H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders falls around RMB 3.5–…

SQM Reports Strong Q2 Earnings

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SQM reported Q2 earnings of $660 million, exceeding expectations with $2.31 per share versus $2.03 projected. The chemicals company also posted revenues of $2.47 billion for the period.

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