What is the IEA's revised 2026 global oil demand forecast, and how does it compare to its previous projection?

The IEA forecasts world oil demand in 2026 to fall by 1.6 million barrels per day, which is 510,000 barrels per day more than the expectation published in its July report.

How has the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected IEA's supply projections for 2026 and 2027?

Due to the unresolved closure of the Strait of Hormuz—and the lack of agreement enabling unhindered transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the IEA lowered its supply estimates for the rest of the year, projecting global oil supply in 2026 to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day and rebound by 8.3 million barrels per day in 2027.

Strait of Hormuz Closure and Tensions Weigh on 2026 Oil Projections – IEA

Aug 12, 2026

The IEA forecasts reduced global oil demand and supply for 2026 amid Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz closures, driving up prices and depleting reserves.

icis

2026-01-21

Oil demand set to rise in 2026, supply and stocks continue to climb – IEA

2026-01-22

IEA Raises 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

2026-03-12

Largest-Ever Oil Reserve Release Fails to Fill Gap, International Oil Prices Continue to Rise

2026-03-17

IEA: "If Necessary" Will Further Release Oil Reserves

2026-03-24

IEA Member Countries to Release Over 400 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves