Energy agency warns: Europe has only six weeks of jet fuel left.

Asia Pacific Daily, Zhang Yuxuan On Thursday local time, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a warning that, due to the Middle East conflict and disrupted energy transport, Europe currently “may have only about six weeks of jet fuel reserves left.” If the situation persists, flight disruptions could occur in the short term. Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, stated in an interview that the world is facing an “unprecedented energy crisis,” with Europe at the forefront. He warned that if Middle Eastern oil supplies cannot be restored, “we will soon hear news of flights being cancelled due to fuel shortages.” The core cause of this crisis lies in the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway handling approximately one-fifth of global oil shipments and serving as a vital source of jet fuel for Europe. Once shipping is interrupted, Europe’s energy supply chain will come under immediate pressure. As a result, Europe’s aviation industry has already begun experiencing ripple effects. Some airlines have cut flights or raised ticket prices amid soaring fuel costs.

IEA warns: Europe’s jet fuel supply will last only six weeks—flights face cancellation risks.

Since late February, when the U.S. and Israel jointly launched airstrikes against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz—the strategic chokepoint carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas—has been effectively sealed off. Speaking candidly from his office in Paris, Birol stated that for Europe, “we will soon hear announcements of flights being cancelled between City A and City B due to jet fuel shortages.” This timeline is significantly more urgent than earlier industry expectations. Just last week, Airports Council International Europe sent a letter to the European Commission warning that jet fuel shortages could begin emerging by early May if tankers are unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA had previously forecast that shortages would hit in June if Europe could replace only half of its usual Middle Eastern supply. Yet Birol’s latest assessment is markedly more pessimistic: he explicitly places the date of European stock depletion in mid- to late May. Reports indicate that jet fuel inventories across Europe are extremely unevenly distributed. Spain, home to eight refineries, is a net exporter of jet fuel; meanwhile, over 60% of the UK’s demand relies on imports. According to IEA data, more than 30% of jet fuel consumed by OECD European member countries—including the EU, the UK, and Norway—depends on imports, the vast majority of which must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts note that inland small airports will be far more vulnerable than major hub airports. Rico Luman, economist at ING Group, remarked: “There won’t be a complete shutdown, but cancellations of certain flights by some airlines and at certain airports are highly likely.” In response to the crisis, the European Commission is urgently drafting a contingency plan. A draft set for publication on April 22 shows the EU will begin mapping refining capacity across Europe next month and introduce measures to ensure existing refining capacity is fully utilized and properly maintained. However, practical challenges are severe: European domestic oil production has shrunk in recent years, and energy transition policies have led to a multi-year decline in refining capacity. The IEA notes that many European refineries are already operating at full capacity for jet fuel production. The IEA stated this month that jet fuel production capacity at numerous European refineries has already reached its limit. Although the EU is attempting centralized coordination, airlines face serious information opacity. The ‘Association of European Airlines,’ representing aviation giants including Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, and Ryanair, has persistently urged the EU to provide real-time data on jet fuel inventories at airports, enabling airlines to plan their schedules accordingly.

Summer Flights in Greece Safe as No Jet Fuel Shortage Expected

May 20, 2026

Helleniq Energy assures no jet fuel shortages for Greece's peak summer season despite Middle East conflicts disrupting Iraqi oil supplies. The refiner cites production surpluses and alternative sourcing from the Atlantic basin and North America to maintain stability.

bloomberg

2026-05-20

Summer Flights in Greece Safe as No Jet Fuel Shortage Expected

2026-05-28

Chevron Files Request to Acquire Offshore Greek Block, Energy Ministry Says

2026-09-30

Helleniq extends motor fuel discounts through mid-October

Summer Flights in Greece Safe as No Jet Fuel Shortage Expected

FAQ