Russia may sell electricity to Kyiv via the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—what impacts would this generate?

Market Analysis: Russia’s electrical industry has a total market size approaching 2 trillion rubles. Over 60% of the country’s power transmission and distribution equipment has been in service for more than 30 years. The government has launched a nationwide grid modernization program worth 2.4 trillion rubles, to be implemented over ten years, mandating full replacement of high- and low-voltage complete equipment, with surging demand for smart substations and digital distribution devices. The state has introduced the ‘Energy Efficiency Improvement Program,’ requiring municipalities and industrial buildings to fully replace lighting with energy-saving LED fixtures, while simultaneously offering subsidies for building automation and energy-saving retrofits. Domestic production capacity for high-end electrical and intelligent control equipment remains insufficient; dependence on imported complete units and core components exceeds 65%. Following the withdrawal of European and American brands, the resulting market gap has opened entirely to Asian equipment suppliers. Within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), tariff-free transit of electrical equipment to Central Asian countries is permitted, and import procedures have been simplified with partial VAT exemptions. As the commercial hub of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Moscow offers exhibitors access to the entire Russian-speaking market through a single trade show. Chinese electrical equipment—renowned for cold resistance, dustproof and corrosion-resistant performance, comprehensive industrial chain support, and outstanding cost-effectiveness—is ideally suited to Russia’s extreme northern, Siberian mining, and harsh outdoor operating conditions. Coupled with surging demand for photovoltaic storage systems and EV charging infrastructure driven by Russia’s new energy initiatives, annual import growth rates for electrical equipment, lighting, and building automation systems in Russia and the CIS are projected to exceed 13% over the next five years—offering vast, long-term growth potential and representing a pivotal strategic window for Chinese electrical and lighting enterprises to enter the Russian-speaking market. Russia’s power industry is undergoing a profound strategic shift—‘de-Europeanization and re-Asianization.’ Approximately 77% of Russia’s critical power equipment—including steam turbines, transformers, switchgear, and cables—relies on imports, while domestic self-sufficiency stands at only 23%. Rosseti, Russia’s national grid operator, has announced an investment plan of 857.1 billion rubles for 2026—a 18.2% increase year-on-year—with plans to commission 18 gigavolt-amperes of transformer capacity and 27,800 kilometers of transmission lines. Its four-year investment plan (2026–2029) totals over 292.2 billion rubles. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak explicitly stated that localization rates for fuel and energy sector equipment will rise to 90% within two to three years. This trillion-ruble-scale power market—driven by policy mandates and explosive underlying demand—is opening an unprecedented strategic opportunity for Chinese power electronics enterprises. At this pivotal moment of large-scale market rollout, the 2027 Moscow International Power Electronics Exhibition (Elektro), organized annually by the Russian International Exhibition Centre, serves as the flagship platform for global power enterprises competing for dominance in Eastern Europe’s core markets. The 2027 edition is scheduled for June at the Crocus Expo International Exhibition Centre in Moscow. In 2026, the exhibition covered approximately 15,000 square meters, hosted 434 exhibitors, and attracted 14,850 professional visitors from six countries and 80 federal subjects of the Russian Federation. Key attendees included top procurement decision-makers from Rosseti, Gazprom, Lukoil, Moscow Metro, and Rostelecom—with over 50% holding CEO or executive leadership positions, and 81% possessing purchasing advisory or decision-making authority.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict accelerates the global nuclear power revival.

As evident, the world’s nuclear power capacity is concentrated primarily in industrial powerhouses or major economies—including the United States, France, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, India, Canada, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. In 2021, these ten countries operated a total of 364 nuclear reactors, accounting for 83.3% of the global total. 03 Global Nuclear Power Accelerates Its Revival The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted global energy markets, intensified energy supply volatility, and pushed up prices across all energy sources—prompting countries worldwide to place greater emphasis on energy autonomy. As a clean, low-carbon, safe, reliable, and economically efficient energy source, nuclear power plays a vital role in reshaping the global energy mix and advancing low-carbon transitions. Expanding nuclear power is thus a key measure for the world to effectively address both energy security and climate change challenges. Countries around the globe have accordingly introduced supportive policies for nuclear development, accelerating the global nuclear revival. 1. United States The U.S. government has long prioritized the development and promotion of advanced nuclear technologies. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia’s international nuclear market presence is expected to shrink significantly, prompting the U.S. to intensify its efforts in international nuclear market expansion. In April 2022, the U.S. and Latvia announced a partnership to support Latvia’s deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs). In September 2022, the U.S. proposed assisting the Netherlands in deploying SMRs and constructing six large-scale nuclear reactors. 2. France In February 2022, the French government unveiled a nuclear renaissance plan aimed at safeguarding national energy security and achieving energy transition goals—announcing the initiation of construction for six EPR2 reactors and launching feasibility studies for an additional eight EPR2 units. In July 2022, citing energy independence concerns, the French government nationalized Électricité de France (EDF) to ensure continuity in nuclear development. In September 2022, France’s Ministry of Energy announced plans to restart all previously idled nuclear reactors during the winter of 2022. 3. China In 2022, the Chinese government approved ten new nuclear reactor units across five projects—in Sanmen (Zhejiang), Haiyang (Shandong), Lufeng and Lianjiang (Guangdong), and Zhangzhou (Fujian)—marking the highest number of reactor approvals in a decade. China currently has 23 nuclear reactors under construction—the highest globally for consecutive years. Guided by the principle of ‘proactive, safe, and orderly’ nuclear development, China’s ‘14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System Construction,’ released in March 2022, sets a target of approximately 70 million kilowatts of installed nuclear capacity by 2025. 4. Russia In March 2021, Russia announced plans to raise nuclear power’s share in its electricity mix to 25% by 2045 and approved the construction of 16 new nuclear reactors before 2035. Previously the world’s largest nuclear exporter, Russia had designed and built nuclear power plants in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Lithuania—and supplied most of their nuclear fuel. However, geopolitical fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has markedly reduced nuclear cooperation between Russia and Eastern European countries, delivering a heavy blow to Russia’s nuclear export prospects. 5. Japan In August 2022, the Japanese government stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict had worsened the nation’s energy situation and emphasized nuclear power’s critical role in advancing Japan’s green transformation—announcing plans to build next-generation reactors and restart nuclear operations. Japan aims to raise nuclear power’s share in its electricity mix to 20–22% by 2030 and strives to become a leading global supplier of small modular reactors.

The Nuclear Investment Boom in Eastern Europe Picks Up Pace

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Nine Eastern European nations plan €185 billion nuclear investments to reduce Russian dependency, with Westinghouse leading tenders despite supply chain and labor shortages. Experts warn of delays and cost overruns as projects aim for completion by 2036.

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The Nuclear Investment Boom in Eastern Europe Picks Up Pace

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