Nasdaq hits a new all-time high; tech stocks ignore the Fed’s hawkish tone; AMD’s market cap surpasses $1 trillion; crude oil and gold prices fall—what’s your take? Will the tech rally continue?

The recent market surge was triggered by Trump calling the 'AI doomsday narrative' a 'complete lie,' emphasizing that the U.S. must not lose the AI race—followed by rumors of U.S.-Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, liquidity stress in money markets suddenly vanished. In the U.S. bond market, yield pressure also abruptly eased. International crude oil prices plunged despite little change in fundamentals. Meanwhile, the 'BTC/crypto sector'—a key part of Trump’s policy agenda—and the 'AI technology sector' surged dramatically. Two critical cyclical variables deserve special attention: (1) Japan’s markets are closed for holidays, and China is approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. This week marks the start of both the UN General Assembly’s high-level week and a busy speaking schedule for Fed officials. Numerous macro-level catalysts—including potential U.S.-Iran presidential talks, the Saudi-Houthi conflict, and the Russia-Ukraine war—could directly impact markets. Notably, markets are currently ignoring the Fed entirely—even though its hawkish stance poses dual inflationary threats to both demand and supply. The underlying reasons are highly complex. (2) U.S. financial markets are now experiencing pricing distortions: the traditional transmission chain from 'policy → asset prices' has broken down. Conventional quantitative models have clearly diverged from actual market behavior. Markets are currently gripped by a kind of 'politically correct euphoria.' Former AI 'alarm-bell ringers' have rapidly shifted to bullish stances—prompting a short-squeeze-style rally in BTC *before* the broader AI sector rallied. Yesterday’s overall market data showed: the Nasdaq rose 2.3%, closing at 27,122.09—a new record high; the S&P 500 gained 1.49%, just ~0.4% below its prior peak; AMD jumped ~10%, becoming the latest U.S. company to cross the $1-trillion market-cap threshold. At the same time, WTI crude fell 4.86% to $95.43, Brent dropped to ~$100, the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to ~4.95%, and gold declined ~0.9%. This data set signals that global asset pricing has pivoted toward the expectation that 'economic growth and corporate earnings can withstand high interest rates.' That implies U.S. real interest rates may revert to 2022 levels—exceeding 5%—meaning markets are now trading a bubble *amid ongoing rate hikes*. Crucially, three key turning-point variables remain unchanged: the 10Y Treasury yield remains below 5%, oil stays under $100, and the yen hasn’t broken above 150. I. Why are tech stocks leading gains despite the Fed’s hawkish stance? On September 16, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and signaled a possible additional hike in 2026. Yet markets abandoned the traditional 'rate hikes = valuation compression' logic. While AI firms’ DCF valuations are indeed affected, they can pass on costs and access ample financing. After Trump’s intervention, AI giants have accelerated fundraising. Moreover, actual discount rates and long-term funding conditions—not just the federal funds rate itself—are more decisive for AI. Ultimately, the key variables remain 'growth rate' and 'macroeconomic resilience.' Also, the 10-year Treasury yield has recently fallen back below 5%, oil has declined for four consecutive days, and relative calm has returned to Iran and Yemen—suggesting markets’ concerns about energy-driven inflation spikes have temporarily eased. Thus, we’re seeing a classic combination: 'hawkish policy stance' coexisting with 'marginally improving financial conditions.'

Crude oil prices plunge, triggering a global stock market rally; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surges 4.29%! A-share trading volume gradually recovers, yet the Shanghai Composite struggles to gain momentum—can it break through the 4,000-point threshold?

Crude oil prices plunge, triggering a global stock market rally; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surges 4.29%! A-share trading volume gradually recovers, yet the Shanghai Composite struggles to gain momentum—can it break through the 4,000-point threshold? 1. U.S. semiconductor stocks stage a major rally! Rumors of potential U.S.-Iran negotiations sent international oil prices sharply lower: yesterday, Brent crude fell 3.32% and WTI dropped 4.28%. Combined with news of a Chinese delegation visiting the U.S., all three major U.S. indices staged a strong rebound—Nasdaq closed at a new all-time high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.29%, lifting the Nasdaq-100 up by 2.83%. 2. Stock markets across Europe, the U.S., and Asia rally broadly Beyond the U.S., European equities also rallied across the board last night: the UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40, and the pan-European STOXX 50 all rose approximately 1%. Japan’s markets were closed for holidays; South Korea’s KOSPI faced headwinds after UBS downgraded its target, yet still gained ~1.7% by midday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index underperformed but traded slightly above zero throughout the morning, closing up ~0.3% near noon. 3. The Shanghai Composite rallies weakly—but trading volume shows signs of recovery Buoyed by improved global market sentiment, the Shanghai Composite opened 0.35% higher this morning but quickly lost upward momentum, trading sideways in a narrow range. By midday, it edged up only 0.22%, closing at 3,958 points.

Trading Day: Oil Slips, Nasdaq Rips

1 day ago

Global oil prices fell below $100 per barrel for five consecutive days amid potential Middle East supply shifts, while the Nasdaq hit record highs fueled by AI optimism ahead of the US-China summit.

reuters

2026-09-22

Trading Day: Oil Slips, Nasdaq Rips

Trading Day: Oil Slips, Nasdaq Rips

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