Who won Colombia's presidential election, and how does this outcome threaten the country's fossil fuel phase-out plans?

Abelardo de la Espriella, a conservative candidate backed by US President Donald Trump, narrowly defeated Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s presidential runoff election. His victory marks a sharp turn away from outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s agenda of leading a global transition away from oil, coal, and gas — including Petro’s founding of a 'coalition of the willing' to end fossil-fuel dependence and hosting the first international Santa Marta talks on a just climate transition. De la Espriella’s campaign rhetoric — such as calling for increasing oil production 'from just over 700,000 barrels [per day] to 1.2 million, 1.3 million' and styling himself 'the tiger' — signals strong support for expanding fossil fuel extraction, directly threatening Petro’s phase-out plans.

What has been Colombia’s international role in climate diplomacy under President Petro, and what risks does De la Espriella’s win pose to that legacy?

Under President Petro, Colombia spearheaded a new international alliance of dozens of countries seeking to end fossil-fuel dependence — the 'coalition of the willing' — and hosted the inaugural Santa Marta climate talks in April to advance a just energy transition. Experts like Juan Carlos Monterrey noted Colombia built a 'concrete and far-reaching' diplomatic platform that now 'has a life of its own' and is shaping negotiations ahead of COP31; however, a drastic policy shift under De la Espriella would 'undoubtedly generate diplomatic noise' and 'temporarily weaken the cohesion of some regional coalitions', especially given his silence on continuing the Santa Marta process and advocacy director Andrew Miller’s assessment that he will 'almost certainly opt for joining the economic and political forces that question and block any progress towards a just transition'.

Trump Ally Wins Colombia Presidency, Threatening Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Plans

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Conservative Abelardo de la Espriella defeated Gustavo Petro's ally in Colombia's presidential runoff, threatening to reverse policies aimed at reducing fossil fuel dependence. The new government plans to expand agriculture and boost oil and gas extraction.

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