A compromise agreement between the U.S. and Iran is highly likely to emerge after the U.S. midterm elections.

2. Immediate unfreezing of all Iranian assets. 3. Ending hostilities on all regional fronts. The U.S. side, however, continues to regard Iran’s nuclear activities as its core concern. In his speech at the UN General Assembly, Trump reiterated that the U.S. would never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Previously, Washington’s bottom line included demanding that Iran prove it was not seeking nuclear weapons, dismantle its key nuclear facilities, and accept unannounced inspections—while Iran has consistently upheld its right to peaceful nuclear energy use and refused to abandon uranium enrichment. These two positions run like parallel lines—forever unable to converge. Iran views sanctions and blockades as existential pain; the U.S. sees the nuclear issue as a fundamental security threat. Both sides stand resolutely on their respective red lines, refusing to yield an inch. Secondly, Trump cannot afford to pursue a conciliatory path before the midterms—the U.S. policy toward Iran serves primarily domestic electoral needs. He must maintain a tough stance toward Iran to consolidate his base, while simultaneously showcasing diplomatic achievements to win over centrist voters. This contradictory ‘have-it-both-ways’ mindset means Washington is unlikely to bring genuine sincerity to negotiations. The so-called “very good talks” are merely an illusion offered to domestic voters—that the President is actively solving problems. That said, I am extremely optimistic about Trump’s willingness to compromise *after* the midterm elections. Why? 1. The U.S. struggles to sustain simultaneous engagements on two major fronts. Since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the U.S. has allocated nearly $195 billion for Ukraine-related actions—and U.S. military aid to Ukraine has already surpassed the annual expenditure on the Afghanistan War. Over the past five years, total U.S. defense spending has reached $4.6 trillion—significantly higher than the $3.6 trillion spent in the previous five-year period. Such massive war-related expenditures have already strained America’s fiscal capacity; deepening entanglement in the Middle East would further overwhelm military budgets and strategic resources. 2. Trump’s ‘transactional diplomacy’ style prioritizes tangible gains over ideology. Once the midterm elections are settled, Trump no longer needs to perform toughness for votes—and will likely pivot toward pragmatic deal-making: withdrawing troops in exchange for benefits, lifting sanctions in return for agreements, or even leveraging the Iranian nuclear issue as bargaining chip for a major deal with Tehran. 3. Iran’s patience and resilience far exceed U.S. expectations. Seven months of sanctions and blockade have failed to break Tehran; instead, they have accelerated Iran’s strategic turn eastward. Its close economic ties and strategic coordination with China and Russia are diluting traditional U.S. influence in the Middle East. As a shrewd businessman, Trump knows better than anyone that time is not on America’s side—the longer the delay, the deeper Iran’s integration with China and Russia becomes, and the fewer cards the U.S. retains. Thus, both sides expressing willingness to continue engagement after the meeting reflects precisely this shared expectation.

Changed his mind in just one day? Trump says he ‘may’ take military action against Iran before the midterm elections.

U.S. President Trump issued new, contradictory signals regarding the timeline for military action against Iran. At a White House press briefing on Friday, when asked why he was postponing action against Iran until *after* the midterm elections rather than acting immediately, Trump replied, “We may [act] immediately.” Just the day before—on Thursday—Trump had explicitly stated that the U.S. “will not attack Iran before the midterm elections,” and described current negotiations with Iran as “productive.” This abrupt reversal has left observers increasingly uncertain about the White House’s policy direction—and has kept investors highly alert to mounting geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Trump’s stance toward Iran has become internally inconsistent. When asked by reporters why the U.S. was not acting now—and whether military action against Iran before the midterm elections remained possible—Trump responded: “We may [do so].” This directly contradicts his earlier statement posted on Truth Social. On Friday, Trump also commented on the Houthi militia’s recent attack on a Saudi airport, calling it “not a good thing” and saying it left him “unhappy.” According to Wall Street Insights, citing Xinhua News Agency, President Trump posted on social media on the 8th stating that the U.S. is holding “productive” consultations with Iran and will not launch an attack against Iran before the congressional midterm elections. In the same statement, Trump emphasized that Iran is in an “extremely bad” state economically and militarily—and declared in capital letters: “IRAN WILL NOT HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.”

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