Geopolitical Great Transformation: An Unprecedented Central Asia

To sell minerals and develop their economies—and thereby circumvent Russia’s stranglehold—Central Asian countries are sparing no effort to secure new maritime outlets. Turkey, aiming to strengthen its role as a regional hub and driven by ambitions of promoting ‘Turanism,’ also seeks to open this corridor. After its military defeat, Armenia has pivoted toward multi-vector diplomacy, prioritizing economic development and improving relations with Azerbaijan. Georgia, seeking to counterbalance Russian pressure, likewise wishes to bring in external actors. Azerbaijan, rich in oil and gas, depends heavily on transport routes and maritime access. In short, the three South Caucasus states share converging strategic interests. Balkan countries across the board are drawing closer to Europe—even Serbia seeks EU membership (though negotiations have stalled due to politically conditioned requirements), and all welcome this corridor with enthusiasm. The ‘Central Asia–Caspian Sea’ node has thus become the most critical link, dramatically elevating the geopolitical importance of the five Central Asian states. Second factor: The scramble for mineral resources. Since the start of the 21st century, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal, etc.)—as foundational pillars of industry—have been incomparably vital; at the same time, the importance of new energy sources (nuclear, solar, wind power, etc.) has surged sharply. Both remain critically important. Whether traditional industrial powers like Europe and the U.S., or emerging industrial nations such as China, Japan, and South Korea, all rely heavily on these resources. Central Asia is exceptionally rich in oil and gas—and also holds enormous reserves of uranium (for nuclear power) and copper, tungsten, molybdenum, and rare earth elements (essential for solar/wind power and grid infrastructure). As a result, Central Asia has become an indispensable partner for industrial powers—including China, the U.S., Europe, Japan, and South Korea—who are now competing fiercely for strategic resources. With escalating geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, Europe faces mounting difficulties securing energy supplies—making the Central Asia–Caspian region its largest source of incremental supply. Even Israel’s top energy supplier is Azerbaijan, a Caspian littoral state. France and Japan rely on Central Asian uranium for nuclear power; Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. source much of their rare earths—vital for semiconductors—from Central Asia, where development potential remains vast. Against the backdrop of trade friction and mutual technological ‘chokepoint’ pressures, Western countries are urgently turning to Central Asia. To establish a Central Asian transport corridor bypassing China, Russia, and Iran, both the U.S. and Europe have opted for the South Caucasus route. In 2025, at the White House, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia signed a reconciliation agreement under Donald Trump’s chairmanship—marking the formal end of territorial disputes between the two countries and ushering the South Caucasus corridor into its substantive implementation phase. The agreement further grants the U.S. exclusive development rights over the ‘Zangezur Corridor,’ renamed the ‘Trump International Peace and Prosperity Route’ (TRIPP). Thus, despite differing motivations, China, the U.S., and Europe have converged on the same route. Human Factor: Old Grudges Resolved, New Partners Join With favorable timing and advantageous geography aligned, and amid an unprecedentedly friendly international environment, the five Central Asian states could no longer sit idle. They realized that a historic window of opportunity to transform their own destinies had opened. Such an opportunity arises once in a millennium—internal squabbles must cease, old grievances must be set aside, and development must become the top priority. Though united geographically, the five Central Asian states have long grappled with two deep-seated disputes: water resource allocation and border demarcation. Central Asia’s water resources are concentrated in the southeastern part of the region—primarily in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan, in particular, occupies only 3.6% of Central Asia’s land area and accounts for just 12% of its population—but holds 60% of the region’s water resources. By contrast, Uzbekistan—which makes up 46% of Central Asia’s population—possesses only about 10% of the region’s total water resources.

Peace Through Trade: A Glimmer of Hope for Ending 35 Years of Territorial War in the South Caucasus

In 2023, Azerbaijan further solidified full control over Nagorno-Karabakh through a so-called ‘counter-terrorism operation,’ prompting nearly the entire Armenian population of the region to evacuate to Armenia. Meanwhile, Russia—deeply mired in the Ukraine war—completely withdrew its peacekeeping forces from Nagorno-Karabakh on June 12, 2024. This marked the full return of military control over Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan—yet the underlying territorial dispute remained unresolved. International Mediation Since 1992, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) established the Minsk Group—co-chaired by the U.S., Russia, and France—to seek a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. However, the South Caucasus conflict is fundamentally a contest over spheres of influence among major powers. Russia, as Armenia’s traditional ally, provides it with military and economic support; Turkey staunchly backs Azerbaijan, viewing it as a fellow Turkic-speaking nation. Although the U.S. and France participate in mediation efforts, their influence is constrained by the region’s complexity—rendering them effectively powerless. Incidentally, Azerbaijanis belong to the Turkic language family and are predominantly Shia Muslims; Armenians belong to the Indo-European language family and adhere to Christianity. While religion is not the core driver of the conflict, cultural and religious differences have exacerbated mutual hostility. Over more than 30 years of negotiations, Azerbaijan insisted on territorial integrity, while Armenia emphasized Nagorno-Karabakh’s ‘right to self-determination.’ Mutual distrust rendered talks deadlocked in a vicious cycle. Consequently, neither OSCE mediation nor Russia’s deployment of peacekeepers yielded any tangible results over these three decades. Trump’s ‘Transactional Diplomacy’ Upon returning to the White House in 2025, the Trump administration applied its signature ‘transactional approach’ to international affairs and regional disputes. In the South Caucasus, it proposed a peace plan centered on economic incentives and strategic cooperation. Core provisions of the agreement include: 1. Both countries pledge mutual recognition of territorial integrity, formal demarcation of borders, renunciation of threats of force, and plans to establish embassies in each other’s capitals—laying the groundwork for normalized bilateral relations and ending decades of hostility. 2. The agreement’s centerpiece is the construction of the ‘Zangezur Corridor’: a 20–43 km transport corridor located within Armenian territory, linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan. The U.S. secures exclusive 99-year development rights over the corridor for energy, trade, and infrastructure projects—and renames it the ‘Trump International Peace and Prosperity Route’ (TRIPP). Armenia retains sovereignty, while the U.S. acts as guarantor and lead developer. Nine companies—including three U.S.-based firms—have already expressed investment interest. 3. Both sides agree not to deploy third-country troops along their shared border, and jointly dissolve the Minsk Group—established in 1992—as well as its associated mechanisms—thereby diminishing Russia’s traditional regional influence. 4. The U.S. signs separate bilateral agreements with each country covering energy development, trade, and artificial intelligence technology—injecting fresh economic dynamism into the region. 5. The U.S. lifts defense cooperation restrictions on Azerbaijan imposed since 1992, fostering deeper military and economic partnerships. Why Did ‘Transactional Diplomacy’ Break the Deadlock? A key insight from Trump’s book *The Art of the Deal* is to break free from conventional thinking and boldly envision the scale and feasibility of deals.

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