Curbing oil prices: The Trump administration’s policy tools are 'nearly exhausted'

Blas argues that the oil market wields power no less formidable than that of the bond market—and can likewise corner politicians. If the conflict drags on, soaring energy costs will force Trump to end this war—not by his own volition, but under market pressure. At present, although oil prices have not yet breached the $100-per-barrel threshold, they are hovering just below it. Blas estimates that each additional day of delay adds $3–$6 to the baseline price. Over one week, that accumulates to $15–$30; two weeks may still be tolerable, but beyond that, the global economy will begin suffering tangible harm. The more critical question is: What cards does the White House still hold? Blas systematically reviews existing policy options—and concludes the outlook is bleak. Short-term measures might buy a few days’ breathing room, but none can address the root cause. The only genuine solution lies in one path: reopening the Strait of Hormuz. What remains in the White House’s 'toolbox'? Since the outbreak of the conflict, the White House has already deployed its most readily available tools: releasing strategic petroleum reserves and activating alternative pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. These steps did grant markets a brief respite—but Blas judges that “this breathing room is measured in days, not weeks.” What other options remain? Blas lists them one by one: Congress could be asked to suspend the federal fuel tax (the Biden administration attempted the same in 2022), but legislation takes time—and passage is far from guaranteed; states, especially those governed by Republicans, could declare fuel-tax holidays; Trump could waive certain environmental standards for gasoline and diesel. While such domestic measures might temporarily ease pressure at home, they would have zero effect on rising international oil prices. An even more extreme option—imposing an export ban on U.S. crude oil and refined products—would indeed lower domestic prices, but would send global prices skyrocketing. Blas delivers a blunt assessment: “That would be a huge mistake.” Another highly sensitive option Blas explicitly names is direct intervention in the oil futures market. He says, “I believe the Trump administration has seriously considered this.” In fact, the Biden administration also evaluated this option following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine—but ultimately abandoned it due to excessively high risks and extremely low odds of success. This path is not only operationally perilous but also fraught with significant legal controversy. The 'destructive power' of oil prices has yet to fully manifest Blas also offers a relatively sober benchmark: So far, the conflict’s actual impact on the global economy remains limited. WTI crude has not closed above $100 per barrel on any single day this year. By contrast, after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, WTI closed above $100 for nearly 83 consecutive days.

U.S. fuel prices—a headache for Trump

The Jones Act, enacted in 1920, mandates that all cargo transported between U.S. ports must be carried aboard vessels built in the United States, flying the U.S. flag, and owned by U.S. companies. Originally intended to bolster the domestic shipbuilding industry, this law severely restricts the number of tankers available for domestic transport. In a statement, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said the current waiver aims to alleviate short-term volatility in the oil market and safeguard the energy supply chain—deemed vital to national security. The waiver is expected to reduce transportation costs for crude oil shipped from the Gulf of Mexico to refiners on the East Coast, thereby easing price pressures in the Northeast’s refined-fuel markets. According to White House officials, the waiver applies to coal, crude oil, refined products, natural gas, natural gas liquids, fertilizers, energy-derived goods primarily made from refined fuels, and other energy derivatives. To ease persistently high domestic gasoline prices since the outbreak of the war, on March 25, 2026, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued an emergency fuel waiver, relaxing seasonal restrictions on E15 ethanol gasoline sales and permitting broader distribution of this fuel. E15 gasoline—a blend containing 15% ethanol—is typically 20–40 cents cheaper per gallon than conventional gasoline. Ordinarily, to prevent summertime ozone pollution, most U.S. regions prohibit E15 sales during summer months, allowing only E10 gasoline. On May 13, 2026, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the National Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act (H.R. 883434) by a vote of 218–203, eliminating the seasonal ban rooted in smog concerns and authorizing nationwide, year-round E15 sales. (III) Efforts to suspend fuel taxes and halt U.S. oil exports face steep hurdles and are unlikely to yield substantive progress. In response to surging international oil prices triggered by the war, petroleum-importing countries including Australia and Vietnam began announcing suspensions of fuel, environmental, and import taxes starting in March 2026 to relieve consumer burdens. On May 10, 2026, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated in a televised interview that the Trump administration was seriously weighing the possibility of suspending the federal fuel tax. The next day, in a media interview, Trump voiced support for suspending the federal gasoline excise tax to shield American consumers from rising fuel prices—and pledged a phased reinstatement once gasoline prices fall. At 2:03 p.m. Eastern Time on June 22, 2022, facing sharply escalating domestic fuel prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, then-President Biden delivered a 13-minute speech on fuel prices. He announced he had proposed to Congress suspending the federal gasoline and diesel taxes for the 90 days of peak summer travel—and urged states to likewise suspend their state-level fuel taxes to ease Americans’ fuel-purchasing burden. Because adjusting the federal fuel excise tax requires congressional legislation—and because state-level suspensions require corresponding action by state legislatures—Biden’s call never materialized into reality. To date, the Trump administration’s consideration of fuel-tax suspension remains purely at the discussion stage—and is likewise expected to fall short of becoming reality.

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