The chain reaction has begun—India slaps Trump in the face.

Was the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the 20th merely an internal American matter? Definitely not—the chain reaction has begun. Put neutrally, India is watching and waiting; put bluntly, India has just slapped Trump in the face. Recall that after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, Trump dismissed the ruling as ‘ridiculous’ but insisted he had plenty of workarounds—and that other countries would dare not tear up agreements, instead paying duties on his terms. He specifically cited India as an example. He proudly told reporters: ‘India has been exploiting us, so we’ve reached a deal with India—and now this is a fair agreement.’ He emphasized: ‘We pay no tariffs, while they do…’ Naturally, whenever Trump mentions India, he inevitably touts his ‘peace efforts,’ claiming his personal intervention secured the India-Pakistan ceasefire—despite both sides having already lost 10 fighter jets, and warning that without his intervention, nuclear war would soon follow. Sometimes he says five jets were lost, sometimes six, sometimes ten or eleven—how many Indian jets actually went down depends entirely on Trump’s mood. Conservatively, at least five; at most, eleven. Such open mockery of India—how could India possibly feel? India feels deeply humiliated—but powerless. Modi can only pretend not to hear, though he surely harbors strong thoughts. Thus, as the first international ripple following the Supreme Court’s ruling—according to media reports—India has postponed its delegation’s trip to the U.S. for trade negotiations. Originally scheduled to depart for Washington on the 22nd to sign a trade agreement—with implementation slated for April—this delegation’s mission now hangs in limbo. According to Trump’s earlier statements, he and Modi had already finalized bilateral tariff terms via telephone, centered on three core points: 1. India agrees to halt purchases of Russian oil; 2. U.S. tariffs on Indian goods drop from 25% to 18% (and the additional 25% punitive tariff on Russian oil purchases is lifted); 3. India pledges to purchase over $500 billion worth of U.S. energy, agricultural products, and other goods. Interestingly, while Trump publicly announced these core terms, Modi only expressed delight at the U.S. tariff reduction—making no mention whatsoever of the other conditions. Sometimes silence speaks louder than words; sometimes restraint reveals greater wisdom than argument. But now, a new problem arises. Under Trump’s proposed terms, India bears multiple obligations: halting Russian oil imports, purchasing $500 billion in U.S. goods—and still facing an 18% tariff. Yet following the Supreme Court’s ruling, Trump’s emergency response was to immediately impose an additional 10% tariff; even after later adjusting it to 15%, that rate remains lower than 18%. India doesn’t need to negotiate—its maximum tariff burden is now just 15%. So why would India accept the original terms and voluntarily bind itself with extra constraints? Does America truly think India is foolish? Yet outright rejection—and demanding renegotiation—would certainly provoke Trump. India may well hesitate to risk that. So, after careful deliberation, it chose postponement. According to Indian sources, ‘The decision to postpone the visit was made following consultations between officials of both countries,’ and ‘the meeting will be rescheduled on a date convenient to both sides.’ In the game of interests, delay itself is a statement;观望 itself is a form of bargaining. But just hours after Trump singled out India as an example—‘India will definitely pay tariffs’—India postpones its delegation. What else could this be, if not slapping Trump in the face?

Trump claims the U.S. and India have reached a trade agreement, lowering U.S. tariffs on India to 18%. What calculations lie behind this deal—and what impacts might it bring?

The notion of manufacturing returning to America is likely little more than Trump’s fantasy—but pursuing such policies isn’t entirely useless: they generate additional U.S. revenue and indeed exert negative pressure on other countries’ economies and manufacturing sectors. Amid the recent plunge in gold prices, stability has seemingly emerged across multiple fronts involving the U.S.—Greenland, Iran, Venezuela, and India. Now, the U.S. has essentially reshaped the entire international trade order tied to itself. This restructured order will undergo incremental adjustments and refinements throughout Trump’s term—and settle into relative stability. The USMCA agreement, expiring soon, is deliberately left until last to finalize—likely encountering no major surprises. By the time everything is wrapped up, it will nearly coincide with the one-year anniversary of Trump’s launch of the tariff war—providing ample material for a grand, sweeping summary. After reaching a historic trade agreement with the European Union, India has also concluded a trade pact with the United States. Based on announcements by Trump and Modi, the key points of this U.S.-India trade agreement are roughly as follows: 1. The so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ the U.S. imposes on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18%, effective immediately. India, in turn, will lower its tariffs and non-tariff barriers against U.S. goods—eventually eliminating them altogether. 2. Trump claims Modi pledged to significantly increase procurement of U.S. products—including over $500 billion worth of American energy, technology, agricultural goods, coal, and many other items.

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