The 2026 U.S. midterm elections: The U.S. Democratic Party claims it has regained control of the Senate, and Trump is said to have suffered a comprehensive defeat—how should we understand the current electoral landscape? What should we watch for going forward?

This year, I’ve seen dozens of analyses on Zhihu speculating that Trump actively sought to ease U.S.-China relations ahead of the midterms—but judging by the results, losing control of both chambers appears unrelated to that effort. Generally speaking, the House is easier to lose, while the Senate is easier to retain. Losing the Senate this time suggests either that the candidates were exceptionally weak, or that Trump himself performed poorly—or perhaps both. Starting next year, Trump’s various controversial proposals will face repeated roadblocks; he may finally enjoy a quiet pre-retirement period—but for the U.S., yet more political drama lies ahead. In fact, I believe many of the policies he planned to push during the latter half of his term—such as tax cuts, long-term funding for the border wall, welfare reductions, a new energy bill, large-scale infrastructure investment, and even an imaginative proposal for permanent tariffs on Chinese goods—would have delivered at least some tangible benefits to ordinary American citizens.

After the midterm elections: U.S.-Iran relations, Asian expectations, and the reshaping of U.S. energy policy

It remains uncertain whether this outcome will be sufficient to lower diesel prices across Asia. Some observers anticipate that Democrats will increase aid to Ukraine—at the expense of confronting Iran—but this would not meaningfully affect oil prices, since Ukrainian drones would continue striking Russian refineries, while Iran would still lack confidence in achieving durable peace with the U.S. This indicates that, despite Democrats securing 240 seats in the House versus Republicans’ 147, and winning the Senate 54–44, Asian economies are unlikely to see rapid relief in fuel and other petroleum product markets. In fact, conditions are unlikely to change significantly—and certainly not soon. This means the ongoing hardship at gas stations and elsewhere will persist. For now, hopes among Democrats to compel Trump into peaceful coexistence with Iran appear high. Specific details remain unclear, but oil prices plunged below $100 per barrel immediately after midterm election results were announced on Wednesday—suggesting traders now expect hostile actions orchestrated by a Democratic-controlled Congress to end in some form. Yet some geopolitical analysts warn that Trump might attempt escalation against Iran to compensate for his domestic electoral losses. Indeed, as Reuters reported, several Middle East analysts stated that escalation could be Trump’s only path to saving face. This is not good news for Asian economies—or for the rest of the world. Historically, Asia has been viewed as an economic powerhouse among developing nations and a vital engine of global growth—a role it is expected to sustain over the coming years. Although forecasters phrase their predictions cautiously, war has prompted a reassessment of those projections, and concerns about economic recession are intensifying. Consequently, expectations for a shift in U.S. policy—though perhaps ill-informed—are understandable. Democratic Victory Will Reshape U.S. Energy Policy The results of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections have altered America’s political landscape and will significantly impact numerous domestic economic policies—energy policy foremost among them. Industry expert Tsvetana Paraskova analyzed this development in an article published on November 8, 2026, on OilPrice.com. In her article titled “Democratic Victory Will Reshape U.S. Energy Policy,” Paraskova argues that Democratic control of Congress threatens Trump’s energy agenda—including reviving clean-energy incentives, tightening regulation of AI data centers, and imposing stricter scrutiny on fossil-fuel policies. Meanwhile, Democrats are launching investigations into controversial energy deals with Venezuela and Russia, and pressuring progress toward a Hormuz Peace Agreement. Political gridlock may hinder energy reform: the likelihood of bipartisan passage of permitting legislation has dropped from 40% before the election to just 25%. The Democratic ‘blue wave’—securing control of both chambers of Congress and key committees—may reshape U.S. energy policy. Democratic lawmakers controlling both houses and pivotal committees, Democratic governors in major data-center states such as Ohio, Georgia, and Texas, Democratic members of Georgia’s public utilities commission, and the first Democratic oil regulator from Texas since 1990—all aim to obstruct Trump administration policies promoting fossil fuels and unrestricted data-center expansion.

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