Why did Trump urge Ukraine not to bomb Russian oil refineries?

Diesel is not ordinary gasoline—it powers trucks, trains, ships, and agricultural machinery; it is the circulatory system of the entire global supply chain. Every truck, every delivery, every package, every procurement has now become more expensive. And the cause of this diesel shortage—as Trump himself stated—is not the Middle East, but Ukrainian drones flying 1,300 kilometers to strike Russian facilities. So, just how devastating have Ukraine’s long-range strikes been? In the early hours of September 13, Ukrainian drones again conducted dive attacks on targets in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan—approximately 1,300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This marked the sixth time this facility had been struck since the war began. On the same night, a major refinery in Slavyansk-Kubansky, Krasnodar Krai, was also hit, damaging its oil pipelines. This is no isolated incident: by 2026, Ukraine has systematically targeted and struck over a dozen Russian refineries, with a clear strategic objective—to sever Russia’s wartime economic lifeline. The effect has been staggering. Data shows that as Ukrainian drone offensives intensified, roughly 40% of Russia’s refining capacity is currently offline. Russia has been forced to impose a full ban on diesel exports, removing approximately 800,000 barrels per day of diesel from the global market. Countries such as Turkey, Brazil, and several African nations—previously reliant on Russian diesel—have been compelled to seek alternative sources, while European diesel inventories have also plummeted. Strategically speaking, Ukraine has struck with precision—at Russia’s most vulnerable point. Yet the problem lies precisely here. In today’s globalized era, energy markets form an interconnected web: tug one corner, and the whole net trembles. With Russia’s diesel exports blocked, global diesel supply tightens—and U.S. diesel prices surge. Ukraine bombed Russian refineries, but American gas stations raised their prices. That’s why Trump is anxious—not because he feels sorry for Putin, but because he fears losing the November midterm elections. With fewer than 50 days remaining before the U.S. midterm elections, Republicans are scrambling to hold onto their razor-thin majority in Congress. And soaring diesel prices strike directly at the most politically sensitive nerve of the campaign. Diesel prices affect far more than just gas stations—they ripple through the supply chain layer by layer, until every voter, at the supermarket checkout counter, holds the ruling party accountable. The White House is naturally alarmed. Trump is already considering invoking the Defense Production Act (DPA) to fund the refining industry and stabilize fuel prices. He has even publicly pledged that, should Republicans win the midterms, every adult U.S. citizen would receive $5,000—a move unimaginable under normal circumstances, yet entirely plausible amid diesel prices exceeding $6 per gallon and resurgent inflationary pressures. Clearly, Trump is truly desperate. Even more telling is Trump’s earlier statement that the U.S.-Iran conflict would “end immediately” after the midterms—and that oil prices would then plunge sharply. Yet when asked when prices might fall, he conceded: “I think it will take a bit longer than the midterms.” This effectively amounts to an admission that the current energy price crisis is deeply entangled with electoral politics—not that the administration doesn’t want to resolve it, but that it doesn’t want the resolution to remain unresolved before the election. Thus, Trump’s so-called “ceasefire order” is, on the surface, diplomatic mediation—but in essence, domestic political firefighting. He isn’t helping Russia; he’s helping himself.

As WTI crude oil net long positions hit a 20-week high, the Trump administration is reportedly preparing to invoke the Defense Production Act to expand domestic refining capacity.

With oil prices rebounding above $100 per barrel, the U.S. government is considering using the Defense Production Act (DPA) to boost domestic refining capacity—while speculative funds in the crude oil market are further ramping up bullish bets. According to Reuters, citing informed sources, the Trump administration is exploring ways to leverage the DPA to expand U.S. domestic refining capacity. Related proposals were discussed during recent meetings between Trump and executives from nearly a dozen U.S. refiners. White House officials asked refiners how federal funding could be most effectively deployed to increase refining capacity. No final decision has yet been made, and participants expect discussions to continue. Refinery executives told the government that, if federal funds become available, they would be better spent improving the efficiency of existing refineries or expanding current facilities—rather than building new ones—since constructing new refineries is prohibitively expensive and would take years to come online. Rising refined product prices—especially diesel—are exerting mounting policy pressure. The U.S. national average diesel price has surged past $6 per gallon for the first time—up nearly 60% since February, when the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran. U.S. diesel inventories are also 13% below their five-year seasonal average. Gasoline prices remain stubbornly high as well. On Friday, WTI crude fell 2.32%, yet still held above $100 per barrel. Bullish crude positions rise to multi-month highs Latest positioning data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that, for the week ending September 8, speculative funds continued increasing their bullish bets on crude oil. NYMEX WTI crude net long positions rose by 19,720 contracts to 139,339 contracts—the highest level in 20 weeks. Combined net longs for Brent and WTI crude increased by 25,890 contracts to 411,159 contracts—the highest in 16 weeks. The refined products market likewise exhibits some bullish sentiment: NYMEX gasoline net longs rose to 92,926 contracts—the highest in about nine months. However, NYMEX heating oil/diesel net longs fell to 16,004 contracts—the lowest in four weeks. Meanwhile, natural gas remains bearish: NYMEX natural gas net short positions rose to 76,518 contracts—the highest in five weeks. In other words, for the week ending September 8, capital clearly increased bullish bets on crude oil and gasoline—but not across the entire energy complex. Notably, the CFTC data cited above covers positions as of September 8, whereas WTI only broke above $100 per barrel afterward. Thus, the timing suggests that speculative funds had already built up long positions in anticipation of higher prices—only later followed by the actual price surge—not that the CFTC data itself triggered the $100 breakthrough. U.S. refining capacity is nearing its limit The Trump administration’s consideration of the DPA to expand refining capacity reflects an underlying reality: even if crude oil supply increases, U.S. refining infrastructure may not be able to rapidly convert additional crude into gasoline and diesel.

Trump to push US officials to use Defense Production Act to raise oil, fuel output, three sources say

Oct 9, 2026

President Trump plans to utilize the Defense Production Act to boost oil and fuel output while curbing record-high diesel prices ahead of the November elections. The directive aims to bypass local and state regulations currently blocking energy production.

reuters

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