Trump has launched the 'Treasury Plan' to establish a national strategic reserve of critical minerals to reduce dependence on China and spearheaded the formation of a 'Multinational Minerals Alliance'. What is your view on this?

I’ve noticed many people rushing to buy commodities at what they perceive as bottom prices today. But let’s pause: risks from March haven’t yet subsided, and with January’s PMI data so weak, why would we artificially inflate our own production costs? Please remember—over 70% of our country’s metals go into industrial applications, and for some commodities that figure reaches as high as 90%. Against the backdrop of such clear regulatory signals domestically and shifting Federal Reserve liquidity logic abroad, clinging to the hope of sustained price surges is perilous. Before precious metals even emerge from their ‘fishing-on-the-diaotai-platform’ phase, new trading rule changes may already arrive. Under our national ‘stability-first’ policy logic, this shock has inevitably left deep risk-control lessons across the industry. Yes, China urgently needs strategic metals—but that doesn’t mean private enterprises should scramble to hoard supply away from industrial users! From a macro perspective, since both sides now declare critical minerals ‘strategic,’ what we’re really witnessing is resource decoupling. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) are classic institutional markets. By leveraging domestic industrial demand volumes, they can design customized trading rules—making it feasible for East and West to operate under different pricing logics. This recent crash has in fact demonstrated that as long as we remain anchored within CME’s U.S. dollar–based pricing system, achieving autonomous price-setting remains extremely difficult. Although we earlier attempted proactive adjustments, capital markets simply couldn’t hold the line—ultimately leaving us subject to market fluctuations dictated by dollar dynamics. Next, let’s briefly unpack America’s little calculations! I. The ‘Treasury Plan’ The U.S. remains the world’s largest mineral resource holder, while China has become the globe’s largest producer, consumer, and trader of mineral products. This means our supply-chain efficiency depends critically on globally low-cost inputs! At its core, the ‘Treasury Plan’ mirrors the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve model—a government-led strategic stockpiling system for critical minerals. Initial funding totals $12 billion: $10 billion in loans provided by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (formerly the U.S. Export-Import Bank), and $2 billion from private capital. Three major commodity trading firms—including Hartree Partners—are tasked with procurement and reserve management. Its operational model blends private capital with government credit, focusing on key minerals like rare earths, gallium, cobalt, and nickel—essential for batteries, aerospace, and semiconductors. Its most distinctive feature is the corporate repurchase mechanism: participating firms must commit to buying back identical quantities of stored minerals at the same price later—locking in prices, dampening market volatility, and freeing manufacturers from holding inventory themselves. In case of supply disruptions, they can draw directly from the reserve. In the short term, the plan aims primarily to buffer U.S. manufacturers against supply shocks—especially those triggered by Chinese export controls—that could otherwise force production cuts. Second, it seeks to gradually reduce reliance on China and dismantle China’s dominant position in mineral processing and refining. Third, it strives to build a closed-loop critical-minerals reserve system encompassing the U.S. and allied nations—bolstering both industrial resilience and national security. Once established, the plan will enable the U.S. government to aggregate purchasing power, enhancing bulk-negotiation leverage and reducing wasteful internal competition among firms hoarding stocks. Meanwhile, the price-locking mechanism offers investors and manufacturers greater certainty—stabilizing input costs and lowering internal commodity markups!

The U.S. is investing another $3 billion to boost domestic production of critical metals. Does China’s critical-minerals leverage still hold?

The central agenda of this meeting was the U.S. Treasury’s $3 billion investment across multiple critical-minerals and battery projects—aimed at expanding domestic output and advancing national-security-driven industrial policy. Much like its tariff policies, the Trump administration intends for these critical products to be fully sourced, refined, and manufactured within U.S. borders. Where exactly will this $3 billion go? Public information indicates four main areas: First, batteries and anode materials are the biggest beneficiaries. The Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital awarded Sila Nanotechnologies—a California-based firm—$1.4 billion in conditional loans to scale up silicon-carbon battery anode production and construct a lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing plant. Sila is currently North America’s only advanced battery-materials company with gigawatt-scale capacity; last September, it launched its first automotive-grade manufacturing facility in Moses Lake, Washington. Second, rare earths and magnetic materials received substantial backing. The DoD granted $400 million in conditional loans to Australian scandium miner Sunrise Energy Metals to develop a ‘full-value-chain scandium industry’—scandium being vital for aerospace and defense applications. Simultaneously, $150 million went to Minnesota-based Niron Magnetics to support construction of a $605 million rare-earth permanent-magnet factory in Minnesota, capable of producing 1,500 metric tons annually. Notably, Niron’s magnets contain no rare earth elements—replacing them with iron and nitrogen. Third, copper and graphite projects secured financing from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. The agency is advancing over $1 billion in financing for Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona. Additionally, Westwater Resources received a $25 million loan to build a natural graphite mine and processing facility in Alabama—the project poised to become America’s first domestic source of natural graphite. Fourth, workforce development has been elevated to strategic priority. Trump announced over $180 million dedicated to mining education: the Department of Energy allocated $100 million in educational grants to double the number of U.S. mining-related graduates within two years; the Pentagon committed $80 million across three mining-focused universities. Trump stated outright that roughly half of today’s U.S. miners will retire within the next three years—and that the nation must ‘train the next generation of American miners.’ Prior to this, the current U.S. administration had already pledged over $10 billion to revitalize the domestic rare-earth and permanent-magnet sectors. In February this year, Trump officially launched the Critical Minerals Reserve initiative—targeting a 60-day emergency stockpile of rare earths, gallium, cobalt, and other critical minerals—with participation from industry giants including General Motors, Boeing, and Google. II. Since Trump’s return to the White House in early 2025, he has rolled out a series of coordinated diplomatic and economic initiatives to forge a critical-minerals supply chain independent of China. Trump’s critical-minerals strategy did not begin with this $3 billion. Since his January 20, 2025, re-inauguration, a comprehensive reshaping of the critical-minerals supply chain—centered on ‘de-China-ification’—has been fully underway.

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