How should we view the Houthi movement’s sudden, rapid advance to control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and southern Red Sea? What impact does this have on the current situation?

3. How to arrange regional armed groups. The Saudi royal family hopes to gradually erect a buffer zone using money, white-label defense industries, and intermediaries. Yet with so many armed groups in the surrounding region—such as in Yemen—how will they ultimately be managed? Are they enemies of the Mecca framework? Since the Saudi-Iran rapprochement in 2023, the Houthis have refrained from harassing Saudi Arabia for three years. Both sides have held numerous rounds of negotiations marked by notably positive atmospheres. Saudi Arabia has paid Houthi civil servants’ salaries, lifted certain blockades, and—even during the U.S.-Iran war—reportedly maintained unofficial channels to exchange intelligence. Relations between the two sides have eased significantly, and Saudi Arabia’s strategic focus has shifted away from the Houthis. Against this backdrop, one plausible interpretation is that the Southern Yemeni government feels increasingly marginalized—Saudi Arabia bypassed it entirely to strike direct deals with the Houthis, raising fears that the South may soon be sold out. Hence, the July bombing of a Houthi airport—an act intended to drag Saudi Arabia into the conflict. Fair enough! From the Southern Yemeni government’s perspective, this was an entirely normal and rational choice. By September, the Houthis perceived a window of opportunity. They judged that all major powers were preoccupied elsewhere and thus incapable of responding effectively. They therefore launched limited attacks against Saudi Arabia first—to generate strategic pressure—before swiftly redeploying their main forces southward to defeat the government army. The Houthis claim this campaign was retaliation for the July airport bombing—but more likely, they genuinely identified a fleeting strategic opening. As for Saudi Arabia: In this round of hostilities, Saudi Arabia sustained moderate-to-severe damage: 73 people injured, and several energy facilities damaged by attacks originating from Iraq. At this point, Saudi Arabia faces a stark reality: The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has truly been choked off. The scenario may unfold like this. Overall, like the previous two main storylines, the plan looks promising in theory—but extremely difficult to implement. Current status: The Houthis have laid out their negotiation terms: ceasefire; lifting of blockades; Saudi cessation of arming the Southern Yemeni government; formal recognition of Houthi legitimacy; and provision of aid—including civil service salaries. Naturally, Saudi Arabia refuses to accept these terms outright—and insists on trying other options. Saudi Arabia has resumed financial support to the Southern Yemeni government, demanding it mobilize a 200,000-strong army to reclaim lost territory—though the combat effectiveness of such proxy forces is widely understood. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia has requested military intervention from Turkey and Pakistan against the Houthis. Yet this request itself is problematic. Pakistan’s stance is clear: deploying troops to assist the Southern Yemeni government against the Houthis would mean entangling itself directly in Yemen’s civil war—a move lacking legal or logical justification. Turkey reportedly dispatched a team of experts, but no substantive troop deployment; it cites the same rationale. This reflects the core problem of the Mecca framework today: while political commitments have been made and institutional frameworks gradually established, a joint military system remains unrealized. There is still no unified coalition force, no centralized command structure, no integrated weapons supply chain, no shared intelligence system, no coordinated logistics network, no joint overseas power-projection capability, and no rapid-response force. Saudi Arabia has also appealed to the United States for assistance—a classic case of seeking help from the very tiger it seeks to tame. It has likewise engaged Russia, requesting its mediation. It even contacted Iran’s foreign minister, who responded enthusiastically—pledging full support for a peaceful resolution between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. In short, so far, Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic efforts appear to have yielded minimal results. Therefore, the ultimate outcome will likely hinge on a high-intensity battle between the Southern Yemeni government forces and the Houthis.

## Latest developments on the Iran situation (Day 205)

- **16:15**: According to the official state news agency, an explosion occurred in southern Lebanon, injuring a child; Israeli occupation continues. - **16:30**: Iran vows to deploy its full military capabilities for a “devastating strike” at a “critical moment.” - **16:45**: Hamas condemns Netanyahu’s entry into Al-Aqsa Mosque. - **17:00**: According to the Jerusalem Governorate Media Office, - **17:11**: The Israeli military reports a shooting incident in the occupied West Bank. - **17:28**: Israeli medical personnel state that a man sustained life-threatening injuries in the West Bank shooting. - **17:45**: Palestinian news agency WAFA, citing local sources, reports that the Israeli military has sealed roads and tightened control measures following a suspected shooting incident. - **17:50**: Reports indicate that a West Bank assailant opened fire with an assault rifle on Israeli settlers. - **18:00**: Gaza’s Health Ministry states that the death toll from Israeli attacks on Gaza has risen to at least 73,910. - **18:00**: The Israeli military reports that a driver died after allegedly ramming Israeli soldiers in the occupied West Bank. - **18:45**: According to Iranian state media, escalating tensions mean any Iranian military action would threaten U.S. interests. - **18:50**: Israeli police report that a man died from critical gunshot wounds sustained in the occupied West Bank. - **19:00**: Nawaf Obaid, Senior Research Fellow at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that Saudi Arabia’s retaliatory response to Houthi attacks on Riyadh would be “massive” and coordinated with coalition partners. - **19:05**: The Iranian military headquarters warns U.S. allies against launching further attacks. - **19:15**: Egypt, during a meeting with the CIA Director, urges taking the next step to resolve the Gaza issue. - **19:25**: Middle Eastern countries condemn the Houthi attack on Riyadh. - **19:35**: Amid escalating Houthi attacks, Turkey expresses support for Saudi Arabia’s security operations. - **19:40**: Netanyahu vows to bring the gunman responsible for the fatal West Bank shooting to justice. - **19:45**: The Israeli military reports that the shooter who carried out the West Bank attack has been apprehended. - **19:59**: Turkey states it stands ready to provide military assistance to Saudi Arabia under the new Mecca Defense Agreement. - **20:00**: Qatar strongly condemns the Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia. - **20:15**: Nawaf Obaid, Senior Research Fellow at King’s College London, tells Al Jazeera that Saudi Arabia’s response to the Houthi attacks in Yemen will be massive and coordinated with coalition partners. - **20:30**: Iran shuts down the French Cultural Center in Tehran, accusing it of engaging in “illegal” activities. - **20:45**: Scholar Ismail Numani Terci tells Al Jazeera that Turkey’s support for Saudi Arabia may remain strictly “defensive” in nature.

Turkey Signals Military Support for Saudi Arabia Against Houthis

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