Why did UBS cut its Brent crude price forecasts, and what specific price adjustments were made?

UBS cut its Brent crude price forecast by $25 for the September quarter to about $80 per barrel on average, and lowered its 2027 average forecast by $10 to $75 per barrel, citing improved oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which eased the U.S. blockade and allowed Iranian crude exports to regain momentum.

What evidence does UBS cite for the normalization of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and what caveat does it add about the pace of recovery?

UBS states that since the MoU, oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around 50% of pre-conflict levels, with inbound tankers to the Persian Gulf lagging outbound tankers by a 2:1 ratio, indicating that normalization is underway but remains gradual rather than immediate.

UBS cuts Brent crude price forecasts on improved Hormuz oil flows

Jul 2, 2026

UBS cut its Brent crude price forecast by $25 for September to around $80 per barrel, citing improved oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz after a US-Iran agreement. The bank also lowered LNG forecasts and noted slower Chinese demand growth.

reuters

2026-07-02

UBS cuts Brent crude price forecasts on improved Hormuz oil flows

2026-07-02

UBS lowers 2026-2027 oil price forecasts as Hormuz flows recover

UBS cuts Brent crude price forecasts on improved Hormuz oil flows

FAQ