What are UBS's revised Brent crude price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and what key factor drove the downward revision?

UBS lowered its 2026 Brent crude forecast to an average of $83.74 per barrel from $93.28 previously, and cut its 2027 forecast to $75 per barrel — $10 below its prior estimate — citing the recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including transits rebounding to about 50% of pre-conflict levels and Iranian crude exports regaining momentum as the U.S. blockade eases.

What range does UBS expect Brent crude to trade in going forward, and what are the main upside and downside risks identified?

UBS expects Brent crude to trade in a $70–100 per barrel range, with the path largely determined by the pace of Hormuz normalisation and the durability of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU); downside risks include a faster reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and strong supply growth — especially from the UAE — potentially pushing prices toward $70/bbl, while an MoU breakdown, renewed risks to the Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf oil flow disruptions could drive prices back to $100/bbl, and more severe disruption scenarios could lift them to $120/bbl.

UBS lowers 2026-2027 oil price forecasts as Hormuz flows recover

Jul 2, 2026

UBS reduced its 2026 and 2027 oil price forecasts following improved flow conditions through the Strait of Hormuz and easing US blockade concerns. The bank now expects Brent crude to average $83.74 per barrel in 2026, down from previous estimates.

reuters

2026-07-02

UBS cuts Brent crude price forecasts on improved Hormuz oil flows

2026-07-02

UBS lowers 2026-2027 oil price forecasts as Hormuz flows recover

UBS lowers 2026-2027 oil price forecasts as Hormuz flows recover

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