What is Fitch Ratings' assessment of the likelihood that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen immediately following the US-Iran agreement scheduled for Friday, 19 June?

Fitch Ratings stated there is a 'high risk that the Strait of Hormuz does not open immediately' and warned that 'a possibility exists that the US and Iran will not sign or implement the agreement they are scheduled to sign on Friday.' It emphasized that 'a lot can go wrong,' citing potential political opposition upon disclosure of details and the risk that fighting between Israel and Lebanon could resume, causing the deal to fall apart.

According to Fitch Ratings, what impact would full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have on global oil markets and Brent crude prices?

Fitch said that if the Strait fully reopens, 'global oil markets could return to oversupply in about a month' due to undamaged Middle Eastern oil infrastructure enabling rapid production recovery, and that 'by the fourth quarter, Brent oil prices could fall to $70/barrel.'

UPDATE: High Risk That Hormuz Does Not Immediately Reopen – Fitch Ratings

Jun 15, 2026

Fitch Ratings warns of geopolitical risks delaying the Strait of Hormuz reopening, impacting global oil prices and chemical supply chains. Commodity chemical stocks fell on speculation of future oversupply once Middle East shipments resume.

icis

2026-06-15

UPDATE: High Risk That Hormuz Does Not Immediately Reopen – Fitch Ratings

UPDATE: High Risk That Hormuz Does Not Immediately Reopen – Fitch Ratings

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