Soybean price quotation on May 7, 2024

According to Nadia Lara Pereira, a meteorologist with Climatempo’s agricultural division, new heavy rains are expected until at least May 20—impacting northern and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states—thus delaying the conclusion of soybean harvests and also affecting other crops such as corn and rice. She warned that rainfall will not be as intense as at the beginning of the month, but is expected to occur frequently over the coming weeks. These forecasts heighten risks for much of Rio Grande do Sul’s still-unharvested crops. Meteorologists estimate that over 20% of soybeans, approximately 15% of corn, and around 20% of rice remain unharvested. Actual losses will only become clear by the end of May. Data from Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) show that Brazil exported 12.82 million metric tons of soybeans between April 1 and 26, 2024—up from 10.21 million tons a week earlier, meaning weekly exports rose by 2.61 million tons. In the full month of April 2023, Brazil exported 14.34 million tons of soybeans. So far in April 2024, daily average soybean exports stand at 641,140 tons—down 19.5% year-on-year from 796,470 tons. Brazil’s soybean export revenue so far in April 2024 totals USD 5.57 billion, versus USD 7.75 billion for the entire month of April 2023. The average export price for Brazilian soybeans so far in April 2024 is USD 434.0 per ton—down 19.7% year-on-year from USD 540.6 per ton. For comparison: In March 2024, Brazil exported 12.63 million tons of soybeans—a 4.6% decline year-on-year; the average export price was USD 427.3 per ton, down 23.1% year-on-year. In February 2024, Brazil exported 6.61 million tons of soybeans—a 31.7% increase year-on-year; the average export price was USD 444.6 per ton, down 20.7% year-on-year. Paraguay: International news, May 6: Commodity broker StoneX reported that Paraguay’s soybean output is estimated at 9.79 million tons—including both first- and second-crop production—due to lower-than-expected planted area and drought impacts. A survey conducted by the firm found that Paraguay’s second-crop soybean harvest is 10% complete, with yields falling sharply—particularly in Alto Paraná Department, the country’s main soybean-producing region accounting for 65% of national output. Larissa Barboza Álvarez, an analyst at StoneX, stated that uneven rainfall distribution has reduced yield estimates from an initial forecast of 1.60 tons per hectare to 1.50 tons per hectare. Harvesting of Paraguay’s first-crop soybeans is now 100% complete; dry weather also led to lower yields. StoneX estimates farmers have sold 60–62% of their soybean crop. Notably, financial arrangements for purchasing inputs such as fertilizer typically mature in April—but repayment deadlines have been extended to May 2024 at farmers’ request, as they anticipate rising Chicago soybean prices. If payments are not made by the end of May 2024, farmers will face additional interest burdens—likely prompting accelerated soybean sales in the coming weeks. By contrast, at the same time last year, farmers had already sold 80% of their soybean output. Argentina: International news, May 6: On Monday, Argentina’s cash soybean market surged further, primarily driven by concerns over potential yield damage to soybeans in Brazil’s flood-hit Rio Grande do Sul state.

Soybean price quotation on May 8, 2024

Market attention is shifting toward the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) upcoming global supply-and-demand forecast, scheduled for release this Friday. The USDA’s May supply-and-demand report is imminent. Traders believe price movements will likely hinge on South American production levels, Chinese demand, and U.S. planting area and yield figures. Analysts forecast a downward revision of Brazil’s soybean production estimate by 2.4 million tons—to 152.6 million tons. Analysts also project U.S. soybean production for the 2024/25 marketing year at 4.43 billion bushels—up from 4.17 billion bushels in the prior year. Statistics Canada reports that Canadian soybean stocks stood at 2.046 million tons as of March 31, down 0.9% year-on-year. On Tuesday, benchmark futures volume was estimated at 172,670 contracts, versus 209,246 contracts on the previous trading day. Open interest totaled 378,455 contracts, down from 388,687 contracts the prior day. Argentina: International news, May 7: Argentina’s cash soybean market rose on Tuesday, reflecting concerns over adverse weather potentially impacting South American soybean output. On Tuesday, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture quoted the FOB spot price for upstream-river soybeans at USD 458 (including a 33% export tax), up USD 2 from the previous trading day. On Tuesday, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures displayed a bearish near-term but bullish longer-term structure: the May 2024 contract fell 2.5 cents to close at 1232.25 cents/bushel; the July contract declined 2.25 cents to 1246.5 cents/bushel; while the new-crop November contract gained 8.25 cents to 1228 cents/bushel. On Tuesday, Argentina’s official exchange rate closed at ARS 880.7 per USD, versus ARS 880.3 the prior trading day; the parallel (black-market) rate stood at ARS 1025, down from ARS 1030 the previous day. Media reports on Tuesday indicated that Argentina’s oilseed workers’ union plans a new strike on May 9. On May 2, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina’s soybean harvest progress at 36.2%, up from 25.5% a week earlier and below the five-year average of 48%; its soybean output estimate remains unchanged at 51 million tons. The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts Argentina’s soybean output at 50 million tons. Brazil: International news, May 7: Anec—the association representing global grain exporters including Cargill and Bunge—reported on Tuesday that road and rail routes serving a major grain port in southern Brazil have been disrupted due to severe flooding. Anec stated that rail services to the port have been suspended, while road closures have forced grain-laden trucks to take alternative routes—adding an extra 400 kilometers (248.55 miles) to their journey to reach the port, thereby raising freight costs. Shipping company Cargonave reported that grain shipments arriving at Rio Grande port have slowed following torrential rains in Rio Grande do Sul—the southernmost state of Brazil and a key producer of soybeans, corn, wheat, rice, and meat. Earlier on Tuesday, the Rio Grande Port Authority issued a statement declaring the port “operating normally,” noting that port facilities have not been affected by rising water levels in Lagoa dos Patos.

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