Why do American farmers dare to exhaust groundwater and black soil—don’t they fear steadily declining grain yields decades into the future?

It’s like a person exhausting their own body. They drink energy drinks and inject hormones: in the short term, they feel energetic—even more vigorous than before. But energy drinks cannot replace sleep; hormones cannot replace nutrition. If this exhaustion continues long-term, the body will inevitably collapse. Even more alarming is the diminishing marginal return of technological progress. Corn yield per mu is already growing more slowly; fertilizer use efficiency is declining because the soil is already 'overfed'; and the yield-boosting effect of genetically modified crops is weakening, as pests and weeds evolve resistance to pesticides. When the pace of technological advancement fails to keep up with the pace of soil degradation and groundwater depletion, a turning point in yields will arrive. When exactly will that turning point come? No one knows. It could be in ten years, twenty years, or even fifty years. But it is certain that, if current practices continue, that turning point will inevitably arrive. III. Why can’t they look ahead? The shackles of debt: no profit means bankruptcy To understand farmers’ short-term behavior, we must first understand their economic reality. American farmers are not the wealthy “landed gentry” many imagine them to be. Most operate under heavy debt. They take out loans to buy land, machinery, seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—even for daily living expenses. Agriculture is a high-input, high-risk, low-return industry. Annual operating costs for a medium-sized farm may easily reach several hundred thousand dollars, yet income depends on weather, market prices, and government subsidies—all highly volatile. The average net profit margin for U.S. farms has long remained below 5%, and in many years it is negative. According to research by the American Farm Bureau Federation, without government assistance, growers of the nine major U.S. crops would incur losses of $31 billion in 2025, and losses would rise further to $32 billion in 2026. Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, stated that U.S. agriculture is facing its most severe financial downturn since the 1980s. The data is stark: U.S. farm bankruptcy filings rose 46% in 2025, reaching 315 cases—the third consecutive year of growth. In the Midwest, 121 bankruptcies were recorded in 2025, a 70% increase over the previous year. Total U.S. farm debt has reached hundreds of billions of dollars; many farmers cannot even afford full fertilizer applications. From 2017 to 2022, the U.S. lost approximately 160,000 farms. In Ohio, a dairy farmer tearfully told reporters: “My neighbor shot himself last week. He left a note saying he couldn’t afford to raise his children—and couldn’t sell his milk.” In Michigan, nine farmers filed for bankruptcy in 2025—up from zero in 2023. Farmer Kellogg said: “If you’re the one who must decide that a multigenerational farm will end with you, it truly breaks your heart.” A study by *Farm Journal* shows rising farmer suicide rates, driven primarily by financial stress. According to CDC data, U.S. farmers’ suicide rate is 3.5 times higher than that of the general working population: 43.2 per 100,000 among male farmers versus 22.5 among all adult males. 60% of farmers who died by suicide had no prior mental health diagnosis. They silently endured their suffering, because in farming communities, seeking help has long carried a stigma.

What is the current survival situation of American farm operators?

These leasing rates and complex land ownership dynamics mean that, for many farm operators—especially non-white operators—land is not a source of wealth but a major production expense. For tenant operators and some landowners, average agricultural land rents stand at $126 per acre for dryland, $216 per acre for irrigated land, and $13 per acre for pasture; however, these costs vary widely—from an average of $35 per acre in Oklahoma to $331 per acre in California (USDA NASS, 2020; USDA NASS QuickStats). For those without family connections granting access to large tracts of land, securing farmland can be challenging—particularly for aspiring, beginning, and socially disadvantaged farmers (Ahearn, 2013; Ruhf, 2013; Calo and De Master, 2016; Ackoff et al., 2017). Securing long-term, stable access to land equipped with infrastructure such as wells and buildings, located near markets and amenities, and including housing, poses a special challenge (Carlisle et al., 2019; Valliant and Freedgood, 2020). High-productivity farmland is increasingly scarce: inflation-adjusted U.S. farmland values have tripled since the 1970s (USDA ERS, 2020b). Beyond systematically excluding aspiring farmers lacking sufficient social connections or capital (Pilgeram, 2019), these escalating costs also impose persistent financial burdens on current independent operators (Prager et al., 2018). Unprecedented farm debt Taken together, rising input costs, stagnant output value, specialization in commodity production, and challenges accessing land have collectively saddled farm operators with unprecedented debt levels (Figure 14). Current average farm debt has reached its highest level since the 1980s agricultural crisis—a period marked by plummeting commodity prices and export values, resulting in massive economic losses across U.S. agriculture (Barnett, 2000). According to USDA ERS data, farm operator households hold, on average, $99,000 in on-farm debt and $116,000 in off-farm debt (USDA ERS, 2021d). A large portion of this debt is real estate-related[25], and is primarily funded through federal loans (Figure 14; Supplementary Figures 13, 14). Operators may borrow via several existing programs administered by the Farm Service Agency (FSA)—the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s lending arm—which offer loans at competitive interest rates. Although programs exist that specifically target new and minority farmers—such as the DIRECT and GUARANTEE programs—non-white borrowers are more likely than white borrowers to receive smaller loan amounts at higher interest rates (Escalante et al., 2018).

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