Why are U.S. oil companies reporting sharply higher profits despite falling crude oil prices, and what explains the persistent high gasoline prices at the pump?

U.S. oil companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron are expected to report second-quarter earnings more than triple their first-quarter levels due to oil price spikes following the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in late February and subsequent global fuel supply tightening — even though benchmark crude prices have since returned to pre-war levels. Gasoline prices remain about 22% higher than before the war not because of crude costs alone, but due to tight physical fuel markets and constrained gasoline inventories, as noted by analysts and industry groups; the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers emphasized that refineries do not set retail gasoline prices and that crude oil is only one input among many, including refining, distribution, marketing, taxes, and regulatory requirements like the Renewable Fuel Standard.

What political pressure is President Trump exerting on oil companies regarding gasoline prices, and how are industry leaders responding?

President Trump has publicly demanded that the national average gasoline price fall to about $2.50 per gallon — well below the current $3.85 average and 11% below his administration’s previous low of $2.81 — and directed the Justice Department to investigate possible price gouging while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of potential administrative action if prices don’t drop sharply; in response, oil industry lobbyists have intensified outreach to officials and lawmakers, and executives acknowledge internal coordination and political awareness, stating anonymously, 'The industry is definitely talking to each other and thinking of ways to deal with it, but we know what’s coming. We understand the politics.'

US Oil Companies See Big Profit Jump, Gird for Clash Over Pump Prices with Trump

Jul 3, 2026

U.S. oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron expect record second-quarter profits driven by tight fuel markets. This creates political friction with President Trump, who is pressuring them to lower gasoline prices before the midterm elections.

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