Why are US oil refiners increasing fuel production, and what is the expected duration of this surge?

US oil refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel caused by the Iran war choking off Persian Gulf energy supplies — including via the Strait of Hormuz and through missile and drone attacks on onshore infrastructure. Analysts expect this high output pace to continue at or near effective maximum capacity for at least the rest of 2026, as war-damaged Middle East infrastructure is unlikely to be restored soon and global refined product capacity has been reduced by approximately 6 million barrels per day (nearly 6% of global capacity), according to Marathon CEO Maryann Mannen.

What evidence shows US refiners are operating near capacity, and how are they adapting to shifting fuel demand?

US refinery utilization rates have risen for three straight weeks to nearly 92%, gasoline output has hit a nine-month high, and jet-fuel production is at its strongest since summer 2024, per Energy Information Administration data. In response to critically low jet fuel stockpiles in Europe — which normally relies on Middle East and Asian supplies — US exports surged to a record 455,000 barrels per day last week; Valero is reconfiguring some facilities to produce jet fuel that don’t typically make it, and Marathon has increased flexibility to shift diesel production to jet fuel at two major refineries.

US Oil Refiners Seen Boosting Fuel Output Through Rest of Year

May 15, 2026

US oil refiners are ramping up production to offset Middle East supply disruptions, pushing utilization rates to 92% and exports to record highs. Major companies like Valero and Marathon are adjusting facilities as global refined capacity drops significantly due to regional instability.

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