What is the primary reason US residential solar installations are projected to stall, and how severe is the expected decline?

The primary reason is the sunsetting of a 30% federal tax credit for homeowners late last year under the One Big Beautiful Bill, which has made solar systems more expensive for consumers; as a result, US residential solar installations are projected to fall to 4.1 gigawatts in 2026 — a 15% drop from 2025 and the lowest level in five years — with no recovery to 2023’s record levels expected within the next decade.

Which two US states are defying the national downward trend in residential solar, and what are their projected 2026 growth rates?

California and Florida are bucking the national trend: BloombergNEF projects Florida’s residential solar additions will reach 710 megawatts in 2026 — a 62% increase over 2025 — while California’s installations are forecast to grow 17% in 2026, with both states also leading in solar permit applications.

US Residential Solar Installations Set to Stall for Years

Jun 15, 2026

BloombergNEF forecasts a 15% drop in US residential solar installations in 2026 after federal tax credits expire, impacting firms like Sunrun and Enphase. Home battery storage is projected to decline 26% nationally, though California and Florida show growth.

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