China criticizes Trump's new tariffs on timber and furniture—will Canada or China suffer more?

On the same day, the official media outlet Global Times reported that Guo Jiajun, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated at a routine press briefing on Tuesday: 'Tariffs or trade wars have no winners, and protectionism is equally futile.' The Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized Trump’s new tariffs on timber and furniture precisely because these tariffs harm China’s interests. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in 2024 China exported timber and furniture worth USD 14.457 billion to the United States—accounting for 13.31% of China’s total exports in this category. The U.S. remains China’s largest export market for timber and furniture, predominantly furniture. For the past decade, the U.S. has consistently been China’s top furniture export destination; at its peak in 2016, it accounted for 21% of China’s furniture exports. Overall, however, both the value and share of China’s timber-and-furniture exports to the U.S. have declined: between 2015 and 2024, the annual average decline in export value was 2.8%. In bilateral timber-and-furniture trade, China mainly exports furniture while importing timber primarily from the U.S., resulting in a persistent trade surplus—and an increasingly widening surplus ratio—reflecting a distinctly export-oriented trade structure. In 2024, China’s timber-and-furniture trade surplus reached USD 7.4 billion. Over the past decade, the average surplus stood at USD 6.466 billion, peaking at USD 10.126 billion in 2019 and hitting a low of USD 3.487 billion in 2017. Since 2021, the surplus has remained relatively stable around USD 7 billion, though the surplus ratio has continued expanding—from 24.45% in 2015 to 51.27% in 2024—because China has increased timber imports from other countries such as Brazil and Russia, while furniture exports remain heavily concentrated in the U.S. Meanwhile, China’s imports of U.S. logs fell from USD 2.035 billion in 2016 to USD 850 million in 2024 (a 58.2% drop), and sawn timber imports dropped from USD 2.904 billion in 2016 to USD 739 million in 2024 (a 74.6% drop). To circumvent high U.S. tariffs, China’s share of third-country transshipment trade to the U.S. has grown annually. In 2024, Chinese customs recorded direct timber-and-furniture exports to the U.S. totaling USD 14.457 billion, with a trade surplus of USD 7.4 billion. Yet according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, in 2024 the U.S. imported USD 44.403 billion worth of furniture overall—of which USD 12.666 billion came directly from China, and USD 12.07 billion entered via transshipment through Vietnam, totaling USD 24.736 billion, or 55.7% of all U.S. furniture imports. Data published by the independent professional firm TRADE DATA MONITOR, LLC shows that in 2023, 45% of China’s furniture exports ultimately landed in the U.S. After Trump imposed tariffs as high as 25% on Chinese furniture products during his first term beginning in 2018, Mexico and Vietnam have ramped up their wooden-furniture exports to the U.S. Subsequently, those tariffs rose to approximately 55%; now, tariffs on Chinese-made cabinets and dressers exported to the U.S. could nearly double. IV. Canada: Trump’s timber-and-furniture tariffs represent yet another blow to Canadian producers. Canadian producers believe the timber-and-furniture tariffs announced by Trump will inflict further pain upon them.

‘Hurt the enemy by a thousand, but damage oneself by eight hundred’—the ‘Wise King’ continues tearing down the house.

Ha Dupu said: The ‘Wise King’ keeps escalating dramatically: Last year, the U.S. imported USD 382 billion worth of goods from Canada; Trump’s much-hyped 50% tariff covers only 5% of that amount. Firing at a USD 382-billion economic base but covering just 5% of it—is this a trade war? No—it’s a failed acquisition negotiation turning into a smash-and-grab raid. In fact, the U.S. lost this battle the moment it began—its bill just won’t arrive for another ten years. Ha Dupu’s work Accompanying AI in cleaning up the aftermath September 8th will go down in history as a pivotal day for Canada. That day, Canada—defying all expectations—launched its first round of retaliatory tariffs: imposing duties of 15%, 25%, and 50% respectively on U.S. steel, dairy products, home appliances, agricultural machinery, pulp, and electronics—matching U.S. tariffs dollar-for-dollar, without yielding an inch. Impacted goods totaled USD 20 billion; Canada’s Department of Finance officially termed this approach ‘dollar-for-dollar.’ (Canada Department of Finance announcement) In other words, one week later, North America’s two closest supply-chain partners—bound tightly for decades—would begin tossing tariff invoices onto each other’s cargo ships. The Ambassador Bridge between Detroit and Windsor—the busiest truck crossing between the U.S. and Canada—handles roughly one-quarter of all U.S.-Canada trade. How did things reach this point? As recently as Friday, August 21st, both sides were still publicly declaring negotiations ‘making progress.’ Let’s straighten out the timeline first. July 20: Trump signed three presidential proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian goods, scheduled to take effect on August 19—later postponed to August 22—suggesting difficulties even then. (Blakes Law Firm’s tariff timeline) August 21: Friday, late night—negotiations collapsed. The manner of collapse is especially telling. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney later revealed that, in the final days, the U.S. suddenly inserted a raft of new terms deemed ‘uneconomic and unfair,’ and ‘undermining confidence in the reliability of any agreement.’ In plain language: anything previously agreed upon could be revoked at any time—so what would be the point of signing anything? Carney put it even more bluntly: ‘They’re asking for too much and offering too little.’ (Reuters report) At midnight, the 50% tariffs took effect—covering CAD 27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods: wine, cement, natural honey, wallpaper, and hockey sticks. Yes—hockey sticks. That list clearly targets what angers Canadians most—equivalent to dancing on Canada’s ancestral graves. On Monday, Trump escalated further: effective January 1, tariffs on Canadian automobiles and auto parts will double to 50%. Last Sunday, he declared on his own social platform: ‘I don’t want American businesses importing anything from Canada.’ Then came the line most worthy of underlining: ‘They want to be treated like a state—but they’re not.’ (The Hill) This sentence is the crux of the entire drama. If you focus only on tariff rates, product lists, or trade deficits, you’ll assume this is merely an economic friction—a matter of haggling over prices. But once the phrase ‘want to be treated like a state’ appears, the nature changes entirely. This isn’t businessmen negotiating; it’s a landlord evicting a tenant—and possibly trying to force the tenant to sign over the deed. Or perhaps it’s just bluster—the quintessential American ‘winning’ rhetoric. Since last year, talk about ‘Canada becoming the 51st state’ has never ceased. Initially, people treated it as a joke—but gradually realized the speaker meant it seriously: tariffs on steel and aluminum, on automobiles—each round intensifying, each accompanied by the refrain, ‘It’d be so much easier if Canada just joined the U.S.’

US Tariffs Squeeze Canadian Cabinet Makers as Trump Duty Doubles

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US tariffs on Canadian kitchen cabinets will double to 50% in January, threatening thousands of manufacturers in the softwood lumber sector. Companies face existential risks, prompting layoffs and potential production shifts to the US amidst rising costs.

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US Tariffs Squeeze Canadian Cabinet Makers as Trump Duty Doubles

US Tariffs Squeeze Canadian Cabinet Makers as Trump Duty Doubles

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