The world's largest grain exporter, yet farmers are losing money on every acre they plant: the darkest hour for America’s Corn Belt

Secondly, fertilizer prices continue to rise. The Middle East is a major global fertilizer-producing region; conflicts have driven up fertilizer and raw material costs. From mid-February to late May 2026, prices of eight major U.S. fertilizers rose for 14 consecutive weeks, with the overall index climbing 20%. By mid-June, urea reached $864 per ton and anhydrous ammonia exceeded $1,100 per ton; most fertilizer types rose 15%–45% year-on-year. According to an April survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), 70% of farmers lacked the financial capacity to purchase their full-year fertilizer requirements. Thirdly, drought disasters further exacerbated the situation. In 2026, the U.S. mainland experienced severe drought, particularly impacting the Corn Belt. Crop yields faced direct pressure, compounding the effect of continuously rising input costs—creating a double squeeze that further eroded farmers’ profit margins. The corn–soybean dilemma Both corn and soybeans are staple crops in the Corn Belt, yet they have been affected differently. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show that fertilizer accounts for 17% of corn production costs—but only 8% for soybeans. Nitrogen use per unit area for corn is roughly three times that of soybeans; thus, fertilizer price hikes hit corn producers more directly. Many small- and medium-sized farm operators switched to soybean cultivation to reduce fertilizer expenses. Yet soybean growers face their own difficulties: previously, many had shifted from soybeans to corn due to tariffs; now, forced back to soybeans by soaring fertilizer costs, they confront a triple crisis—blocked exports, rising costs, and falling prices—leaving farmers no choice but to pick the lesser of two evils. Losses amid falling prices and rising costs America’s large-scale, mechanized agriculture is now trapped in an abnormal inversion: falling sale prices alongside rising production costs. On the pricing front: corn prices dropped from $6.54 per bushel in 2022 to $4.10 in 2025—a 37% decline; soybean prices fell from $14.90 to $10.20, a 32% drop. On the cost front: the USDA projects 2027 production costs at $952 per acre for corn and $701 per acre for soybeans—both record highs. Since 2005, production costs for soybeans, corn, and wheat have risen by 165%, 146%, and 106%, respectively. Under this dual squeeze, losses continue expanding: corn losses reached $131 per acre in 2026 and will widen to $167 per acre in 2027; soybean losses rose from $80 to $138 per acre over the same period; cotton losses hit $342 per acre. The real situation on the ground U.S. media widely cite Bailey’s remark that “all input costs have completely gone haywire.” Xinhua reporters visiting Iowa observed that farmer couple Griffen received a diesel fuel bill exceeding $11,000 for a single truckload—far higher than anticipated. Their anhydrous ammonia fertilizer rose from $800 to $1,200 per ton, pushing total per-acre input costs near $164.70. A bag of corn seed priced between $250–$400 covers only 15.2 acres, while federal subsidies amount to just $5.60–$5.80 per acre—insufficient to meaningfully offset costs. Kimber, a sixth-generation Iowa farmer, described the past three years as “stagflation”: input costs surged rapidly, yet agricultural commodity prices stagnated—or even declined—leaving farmers squeezed from both ends.

USDA forecasts record soybean harvest and bountiful corn crop

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its estimates for both corn and soybean yields, increasing expectations for massive global supplies of these two crops. The agency raised its forecast for 2024/25 soybean production to a record 4.589 billion bushels—exceeding both analyst expectations and last month’s projection. The USDA forecasts 2024/25 corn production at 15.147 billion bushels, higher than both last month’s and July’s estimates. This would make it the third-largest corn crop in U.S. history. Following the report’s release, U.S. soybean futures continued to fall, having earlier touched a four-year low that day, as expectations of robust global supply and weak demand for U.S. crops pressured prices. Jake Hanley, Director at Teucrium Trading, stated: “This is a massive revision for soybeans—and it caught people off guard, which is precisely why the market reacted this way.” Abundant crop supplies and low prices have caused U.S. farmer income to plummet sharply this year. 2024/25 ending soybean stocks are projected at 560 million bushels—higher than the expected 465 million bushels and up from 435 million bushels projected in July.

USDA Projects Higher Corn and Soybean Production

Oct 9, 2026

The USDA's October WASDE report forecasts higher corn and soybean production driven by improved yields, increasing ending stocks for both commodities. Corn prices dropped to $4.70 per bushel, while soybean prices remained steady at $12.00.

icis

2026-02-20

USDA expects corn plantings to be lower in 2026 at 94 million acres with soybeans higher at 85 million

2026-05-04

US Farmers Plant 38% of Corn, 33% of Soybeans

2026-05-12

USDA May WASDE Projects Corn Crop at 16 Billion Bushels

2026-06-01

US corn plantings at 93% completed with soybeans at 87%

2026-06-29

Corn Drops With USDA Set to Show Biggest US Supply Since 1988