Earnings season is here! Citadel Securities: The coming weeks will be the true fundamental stress test for U.S. equities.

Retail investor buying is rebounding—even though overall trading activity remains below average. Data from the Citadel Securities platform shows that last week, retail investors net-bought $9.1 billion worth of U.S. equities—the largest weekly net purchase in 15 weeks and the ninth-highest level over the past year. This increase in buying stems primarily from stronger directional bias—not a surge in trading volume. Last week, retail investors’ buy bias exceeded their sell bias by 2.7 percentage points, placing it at the 90th percentile of weekly directional skew. Meanwhile, total trading activity stood only at the 42nd percentile over the past year. Over the past three weeks, retail investors’ weekly net purchases rose from $4.8 billion to $6.4 billion, then to $9.1 billion. Flows were highly concentrated. The semiconductor sector saw $2.6 billion in net buying—its third-highest weekly level in the past year. At the current pace, October could become the month with the largest semiconductor net buying on the Citadel Securities platform—tripling the past-year average. AI infrastructure stocks attracted $2.4 billion in net buying—the fourth-highest weekly level in the past year. Neoclouds saw $700 million in net buying—the largest weekly accumulation observed for this stock category. Fixed-income ETFs also drew record-pace retail demand. In the first seven trading days of October, retail investors net-bought nearly $3 billion in bond ETFs—an average of $422 million per day—28% higher than the previous monthly record pace. Buying was concentrated in short-term Treasury bills, ultra-short-duration and municipal bond ETFs, and U.S. Treasury ETFs. Demand for credit, loan, and CLO ETFs stood at only 0.4 times their typical level. If this pace continues, October will mark the largest retail fixed-income ETF buying month since 2017 in this dataset. Index volatility remains subdued while single-stock risk continues to rise. Citadel Securities notes that one of the market’s most prominent features today is the persistent divergence between single-stock volatility and index volatility. Rotation among winners and losers across individual stocks and sectors has pushed up single-stock and sector-level volatility. Yet gains and losses within the index offset each other, keeping index volatility near its lowest level over the past year. Since September 29, the average one-month at-the-money implied volatility of S&P 500 constituents rose from 34.1% to 36.4%. Over the same period, the S&P 500’s implied volatility fell from 13.2% to 11.7%. The spread between the two widened by nearly four volatility points to 24.7—placing it at the 90th percentile over the past year. The ratio of single-stock to index implied volatility rose to 3.1x—its 98th percentile level. One-month implied correlation dropped to 7.6%, the lowest level since 2006 (1st percentile historically). Implied volatility for sectors such as banking, biotech, AI, and software all strengthened notably relative to the S&P 500’s volatility. Realized volatility at the index level remains similarly muted. The S&P 500 has not recorded a single-day move of ±2% since June 5—a streak of 88 consecutive trading days without such a move. The index has also gone 52 consecutive trading days without a 1% decline. Its 10-day realized volatility has fallen to 7.2%, placing it at the 5th percentile over the past year. Broad-based selloffs have also been absent for an extended period. Citadel Securities notes that the New York Stock Exchange has approached one full year without a trading day where declining volume accounted for at least 80% of total volume.

[Berkshire Hathaway Holdings Research Series] Visa

Introduction: This series analyzes representative stocks selected from Berkshire Hathaway’s historical equity holdings—and recent quarterly Form 13F filings—across various sectors. Drawing on over 40 years of Warren Buffett’s annual “Letters to Shareholders,” we trace his initial rationale for investing in each company, track changes in holding size over time, and distill patterns in his investment preferences, position sizing, and risk management. Our aim is to learn from the investment logic and thought processes of the ‘Oracle of Omaha.’ Let’s explore the secrets behind Buffett’s wealth together! Visa — Holding Weight: 0.87% Image source: Baidu Baike Company Financials Over the past week, Visa has been severely impacted by the pandemic; if its share price falls to around $170, it would present an excellent opportunity to accumulate shares. Even though current financial results are subpar, several growth-supporting factors remain. For a growth-oriented stock like Visa, investors pay closest attention to its financial performance. This year, Visa’s revenue growth has nearly stalled due to the pandemic, though analysts expect recovery in 2021. Its Q4 earnings report showed revenue contraction—but still outperformed broader market expectations. Revenue totaled $5.1 billion, $70 million above consensus estimates—indicating progress in certain areas, albeit against a backdrop of slowing economic growth. Even as Visa’s Q4 revenue declined 17%, its operating expenses fell 18%. Though the reduction appears modest, it remains a positive signal. Investors generally welcome slower growth in expenditures and costs, as it supports margin expansion. Without cost discipline during revenue declines, profitability would suffer significantly. Analysts expect this strict expense management to continue into Q1 2020—a further positive catalyst. Q4 net income stood at $2.45 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.12—down 23% year-on-year from $1.45—but still exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.10. Analysts also noted that the company repurchased $1.6 billion worth of shares this quarter. However, to preserve cash flow, the pace of buybacks is expected to slow.

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