Don’t Be Fooled by the U.S.–Venezuela Oil Deal: It Looks Like a Windfall, but Is Actually Pure Expectation-Driven Hype and Political Calculus

The second objective is to serve domestic political infighting in the United States—this itself breaks down into three sub-objectives. First, stabilizing oil prices. Due to the U.S.–Iran conflict, American citizens have been voicing strong grievances over soaring domestic fuel prices. Announcing an energy agreement with Venezuela thus deflects public anger away from Trump. If oil prices fall in the future, it will be credited to Trump’s leadership; if they remain high, responsibility falls squarely on the implementing companies and Venezuela’s current government—Trump, after all, has already done his part. Second, providing a plausible justification for the U.S.–Iran conflict. Initially, Trump’s abduction of Maduro was intended to pave the way for U.S. energy giants to enter Venezuela—and thereby secure their political support. But the plan backfired: major U.S. energy firms—including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips—refused to cooperate, citing historical risks and unfavorable current investment conditions. Venezuela thus became a ‘liability’ for Trump. Now, by unveiling this massive oil deal, Trump aims to convince American voters that his actions in Venezuela were meaningful and valuable. By extension, he hopes to reassure the public: though the current U.S.–Iran conflict appears deeply flawed, the U.S. will ultimately reap enormous profits from it—so patience is warranted. Third, silencing Biden and his allies. The U.S.–Iran conflict has deviated sharply from Trump’s and Netanyahu’s original plans—and has now severely damaged U.S. national interests. Although neither major U.S. political party genuinely prioritizes America’s national interest, they cannot openly admit as much. So what happens if Biden and his allies attack Trump during the election campaign, accusing him of sacrificing national interests? How would voters react? Thus, Trump’s current pressure on the Rodríguez administration to sign this petroleum cooperation agreement serves multiple purposes: delivering benefits to domestic capital; using this ‘cake’ to solidify support among pro-Trump investors, draw centrist capital closer to him, and drive a wedge between Biden-aligned capital—and, crucially, to heavily promote the narrative that Trump is tirelessly working ‘for the people.’ ‘He stated that, under his direction, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of Defense Hegseth closely collaborated with Venezuela’s interim President Rodríguez—and, through partnerships with private enterprises, secured for the U.S. ‘majority control’ over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves, at zero cost to American taxpayers.’ Note the final phrase: ‘at zero cost to American taxpayers’—thus reinforcing the image of Trump perpetually acting in the American people’s best interest. As noted earlier, the U.S.–Iran conflict has gravely harmed U.S. national interests. Biden’s camp could exploit this to accuse Trump of recklessly disregarding America’s interests—but now Trump counters: ‘I intend to make the U.S. government the absolute majority shareholder; over half the revenue will flow directly to the U.S. Treasury, boosting national coffers and, consequently, public welfare—I’m literally exhausting myself for this country!’ According to a Wall Street Journal report on September 29, the agreement grants a U.S.–Venezuelan joint venture 100-year concessions to develop oilfields, with the U.S. entitled to 55% of the new company’s ‘effective output’—including equity stakes and rights to purchase oil at cost price. The third objective: maximizing personal gain—again subdivided into three aims.

65 Billion Barrels of Oil, 25-Year Agreement: Has Venezuela’s ‘Bowl’—its oil sovereignty—truly been carried away this time?

On September 1, I published an article describing Venezuela as ‘a nation heaven-sent with food—but one that deliberately smashes its own bowl.’ At the time, I thought that was the worst possible outcome. Yet after September 2, I realized things might be even worse: the bowl wasn’t merely shattered—it was painstakingly reassembled from its fragments… and then carried off. That day, the U.S. Energy Secretary arrived in Caracas and signed a batch of oil development agreements with Venezuelan authorities. According to official statements, the agreements cover approximately 65 billion barrels of oil reserves and outline development arrangements spanning the next 25 years. Though Venezuela’s oil remains underground, questions of who extracts it, to whom it is sold, and how revenues are distributed are quietly shifting. This is no ordinary agreement. To understand it, we must rewind eight months. On January 3, Caracas experienced sudden political upheaval: President Maduro and his wife were removed from the country, and Vice President Rodríguez assumed power as interim president. Within weeks, Venezuela’s National Assembly passed an amendment to the Organic Hydrocarbons Law, permitting foreign direct participation in oil exploration and extraction—and allowing such firms to independently market part of their output. This effectively ended PDVSA’s two-decade-long monopoly over the sector; supporting regulatory details were finalized in July. Thus, the agreement signed on September 2 is not a routine commercial partnership, but rather a strategic reallocation opportunity arising from the confluence of Venezuela’s political transformation, legal liberalization, and deepening petroleum-industry crisis. Two versions of one agreement. On August 28, Trump posted on social media claiming the U.S. and Venezuela had reached ‘the largest oil deal in world history.’ Per his account, the U.S. would gain ‘majority control’ over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven reserves—with no financial burden on American taxpayers. Yet the next day, Venezuela’s interim President Rodríguez announced a different version on national television: a 25-year bilateral development project covering 17 strategic oilfields, expected to attract roughly $100 billion in investment, raise daily production to over 1.5 million barrels, and generate over $209 billion in tax revenue for the Venezuelan government. One version emphasizes ‘control’; the other stresses ‘cooperative development.’ Earlier, U.S. officials reportedly indicated the oilfield development rights could last up to 100 years, while Venezuela insists the project term is 25 years. Since the full text remains unpublished, external observers cannot yet verify all details. However, according to White House fact sheets, the U.S. side—beyond holding equity—secures rights to purchase part of the output at cost price, plus priority purchasing rights over the remainder. Chevron, for instance, plans to invest approximately $7 billion to develop two large heavy-oil fields in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt—a vital infusion of capital and technology for a country long starved of both, and a critical opportunity for the U.S. to re-enter Venezuela’s petroleum industry. What does ‘65 billion barrels’ actually mean? Venezuela’s proven oil reserves stand at roughly 303 billion barrels—the world’s largest.

Venezuela Expects Nearly $76 Billion in Oil Investment Over Five Years, Acting President Says

1 day ago

Acting President Delcy Rodriguez announced nearly $76 billion in planned oil investments over five years, including a US accord to drill 250 rigs. Production in western Zulia has reportedly surged to 370,000 barrels per day as the country reopens its energy sector to foreign capital.

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