Sure enough—the prediction came true! Venezuela has officially announced...

Sure enough! Venezuela has officially announced. On January 29, 2026, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez of Venezuela signed a new petroleum law—sending shockwaves across the globe! This law fundamentally upends nearly half a century of petroleum-industry structure, opening the door to foreign investment with unprecedented boldness. On January 29, 2026, when Acting President Delcy Rodríguez signed her name onto the "New Petroleum Law," the weight of that single stroke likely exceeded even that of the entire Orinoco Belt’s heavy-oil reserves. What appears to be merely the conclusion of an administrative procedure is in fact the pressing of a long-dormant "restart button"—sealed away for fifty years. At this moment, Venezuela’s staggering 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves—the world’s largest—have finally ceased being just astronomical figures buried in geological reports; they are now tangible bargaining chips placed squarely on the negotiating table. This policy U-turn—a veritable "geological earthquake"—is not born of any sudden political epiphany. Put bluntly, it stems purely from raw, survival-driven instinct. Just glance at Venezuela’s current balance sheet, and you’ll understand why the Acting President’s hand must have trembled as she signed this document. Today, Venezuela is dancing on the edge of a cliff. In 2023, its inflation rate soared to a staggering 337.5%; even this year, forecasts still predict inflation exceeding 100%—unless drastic changes occur. Most heartbreaking of all: as recently as mid-last year, the minimum monthly wage for ordinary citizens amounted to only about $3.6. What does that mean? A nation sitting atop a mountain of gold cannot feed its own people—and if the government fails to sell oil, it won’t even be able to pay civil servants’ salaries. The state treasury is in even worse shape. As early as May 2024, foreign exchange reserves had plummeted to just $10.125 billion. Recall: oil accounts for over 90% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. Compounding matters, the intensified U.S. sanctions imposed by the end of 2025 mean that without prying open a crack in this wall, Venezuela faces not mere economic recession—but total systemic collapse, suffocating into paralysis. Thus, this new law is no “reform”; rather, it resembles a “letter of allegiance” overdue by two decades. Review its provisions, and you’ll see it represents a leap from one extreme to another. Remember the arrogance of the Chávez era: ironclad rules bound foreign investors to a strict 49% equity cap; they were forced to operate as junior partners under the state-owned oil company PDVSA—and obliged to surrender 60% of their windfall profits as tax.

Is the sky-high oil agreement between the U.S. and Venezuela genuine cooperation—or just empty boasting?

4) From an industry perspective, multi-billion-dollar oil investments are inherently extremely difficult and require exceptionally long timeframes. I reported firsthand from China National Petroleum Corporation’s (CNPC) operations in Kazakhstan and southern Sudan back in 2007, gaining deep insight into the real conditions of the oil sector. Oil and gas development is a classic capital-intensive, high-risk, long-cycle industry. Every step—from equipment repair and well drilling, to pipeline reconstruction, production ramp-up, stable output, and smooth transportation—demands substantial, concrete investment, extended timelines, and a stable operating environment. It is utterly unsuited for short-term speculation or quick profit extraction. U.S. capital pursues profit—but not recklessly. It lacks both the patience and the willingness to tackle such formidable challenges. 5) From legal and governmental standpoints, this cooperation agreement suffers from inherent deficiencies and an unstable foundation. The Venezuelan transitional government installed by the U.S. after arresting Maduro earlier this year has failed to secure broad domestic recognition. Maduro’s camp retains significant strength and flatly rejects the transitional government’s legitimacy—not to mention the validity of any external energy agreements it signs. Under conditions where national authority remains unsettled and internal divisions run deep, hastily ceding sovereign oil-development rights carries enormous legal and political risks. 6) Further, this agreement remains vulnerable to outright cancellation or nullification at any time. Venezuela’s political landscape is currently highly fragile and profoundly unstable; its power structure has yet to solidify. Should circumstances shift and power change hands in the future, any new ruling authority could simply repudiate the transitional government’s international contracts and scrap all cooperative terms. For oil investments spanning decades, such ever-present risk of policy reversal constitutes a fatal flaw—one no major investor can accept. 7) The U.S. domestic political cycle forms another massive obstacle looming over this sky-high agreement. Trump’s current term is limited; a new presidential election and potential transfer of power loom just two years away. Policy continuity is notoriously weak in U.S. politics—governments routinely reverse course upon each transition. The next administration could easily suspend or reject its predecessor’s international partnerships. Multi-billion-dollar oil-sector investments demand decades of stable policy support; they simply cannot withstand the U.S.’s four-year political rollercoaster. 8) Trump’s decision to heavily promote this sky-high cooperation deal precisely now serves clear, immediate political objectives. Currently, the U.S. finds itself stuck in a diplomatic quagmire over Iran—unable to advance or retreat, facing widespread domestic criticism and a deeply passive foreign-policy posture. Meanwhile, the U.S. midterm elections approach in November, presenting the Republican Party with severe electoral challenges. Manufacturing a so-called "historic overseas energy triumph" at this juncture aims primarily to divert domestic public attention, obscure diplomatic failures, and boost electoral prospects. Naturally, Trump’s promotion of this sky-high oil agreement with Venezuela also seeks to convince American voters that his cross-border venture in Venezuela holds tangible value and meaningful purpose.

Venezuela Oil Opening Is 'Smoke and Mirrors,' Pickering Says

Sep 15, 2026

Energy analyst Dan Pickering warns Venezuela's oil reopening faces high risks despite recent Chevron and Eni deals, stating production recovery requires major investment and won't boost supply in the near term.

bloomberg

2026-01-06

Chevron Commences Production at Angola Offshore Platform

2026-01-16

US Oil Firms Cautious About Returning to Venezuela

2026-01-27

Turkey and Chevron Advance Oil and Gas Exploration Cooperation

2026-04-26

Chevron CEO Says Venezuela Must Do More for Oil Industry Revival

2026-04-28

Libya Signs Preliminary Agreement with Chevron to Assess Shale Oil and Gas Resources