Article One: 2006 — The Man Who Pledged His Factory

Chen Zhiyuan had run a copper processing plant in Zhuji, Zhejiang for ten years. One evening in early 2006, he heard about futures trading for the first time. "Old Chen, you buy hundreds of tons of copper every month—just a small price fluctuation means tens of thousands of yuan in gains or losses. Don’t you want to lock in your costs?" Chen thought it over for three days, then opened an account with a futures company. At that time, Shanghai copper prices were rising steadily from 30,000 yuan/ton. Everyone around him was going long. Chen, ever cautious, started small—500,000 yuan to buy just two lots of Shanghai copper futures. A month later, his 500,000 yuan had grown to 800,000. "This money comes faster than running a factory," Chen remarked—and began increasing his positions: from two lots to ten, then to twenty. In April 2006, the main Shanghai copper futures contract broke above 60,000 yuan/ton. The market’s frenzy is hard to imagine today. Goldman Sachs issued a report declaring, "The commodity supercycle has only just begun," while domestic securities firms, media outlets, and analysts unanimously turned bullish. The most extreme forecasts predicted copper would hit 100,000 yuan/ton. Chen’s account now held over 3 million yuan. He began to believe he was born to trade. He transferred his factory’s working capital into his futures account. His wife—the plant’s finance manager—argued fiercely: "You’re using customer payments to speculate on futures? What about next month’s wages?" "What do you know?! Copper will keep rising—don’t you get it? If you wait until it hits the sky, you’ll be chasing forever!" By mid-May, Shanghai copper surged to a record high of 85,500 yuan/ton. Chen’s paper profit stood at 6 million yuan. He reserved an apartment in Zhuji city, planning to pay in full. His wife cautioned: "Don’t finalize the purchase yet—cash in hand feels safer." "Typical woman’s thinking. After this rally, I’ll buy two!" In early June, copper prices began to correct. Technically, the chart deteriorated. A clear "double-top" (M-top) pattern emerged on the candlestick chart. Yet in such a strongly bullish market, no one trusted technical indicators. All analysts insisted: "This pullback is just a buying opportunity." Chen didn’t budge—and even added 20 more long contracts. He’d calculated: as long as copper rebounded to 80,000 yuan/ton, he’d secure his first 10-million-yuan profit. But this correction didn’t stop. By mid-June, Shanghai copper plunged below 70,000 yuan/ton.

"Aluminum Big Zhuang" Is Back—This Time, Betting on Copper!

Sonny McNess, the veteran metals trader whose massive aluminum bets once rattled the London Metal Exchange (LME), has returned—with a heavy new position. This time, his target is copper. According to a Bloomberg report dated October 21, sources familiar with the matter revealed that McNess, currently serving as Hartree Partners LP’s Head of Metals Derivatives Trading, has recently purchased large volumes of LME October-delivery copper contracts while simultaneously shorting November futures—betting that near-term supply tightness will drive premiums higher for the front-month contract. Sources indicated that Hartree’s position is the largest among several major recent holdings in the October contract. The core logic underpinning this trade is straightforward: if Trump announces tariffs on refined copper, near-term supply constraints will become virtually inevitable—and this position stands to profit directly. This bet has already sent ripples across the market. In the lead-up to the October contract’s expiry, the spread between October and November contracts swung violently; at one point, the October contract traded at a premium of $91.99 per ton over November—a classic sign of supply stress known as backwardation. Meanwhile, the trade coincides with LME Week—the industry’s annual flagship event held in London—where this outsized position and its volatility have become a hot topic among attendees. Tariff Expectations Drive Copper Market Dynamics Whether Trump will impose tariffs on copper remains the single biggest uncertainty gripping the copper market today. Per Bloomberg, since May this year, copper inventories across the LME’s global warehouse network have plummeted—traders have rushed to move large quantities of copper into U.S. warehouses to preempt potential import tariffs. At the same time, recovering Chinese import demand has further tightened copper supply. Persistent inventory drawdowns have repeatedly pushed the market into backwardation. In August, spot copper prices briefly traded at a $545-per-ton premium over three-month futures—the largest supply squeeze recorded in LME history. Currently, a substantial portion of LME metal inventories is concentrated in its U.S. warehouses. If tariffs are implemented, traders could arbitrage by buying near-month LME contracts, withdrawing metal from exchange warehouses, and delivering it against New York futures contracts—locking in risk-free profits.

Veteran Metals Trader Known for Aluminum Bets Returns with Major Copper Wager

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Sonny McNess has taken significant copper positions on the London Metal Exchange, betting on supply squeezes caused by falling inventories and potential US tariffs on refined copper.

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