「Crude Oil Research Report」US-Iran Negotiations Progress Unsteadily; Geopolitical Factors Drive International Oil Prices Down First, Then Up

US Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated that the military stands ready to execute any relevant decision made by the President. The US military also reported shooting down an Iranian drone approaching the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. Market institutions noted that Iranian armed speedboats attempted to force a US-flagged oil tanker to stop in the Strait of Hormuz north of Oman; Iran claimed the vessel was intercepted for unauthorized entry into Iranian territorial waters. Additionally, later in the week, the highly anticipated US-Iran negotiations were reportedly canceled—a development that drew significant market attention. According to US sources, Washington would not accept Tehran’s demands to change the venue and format of the talks. Iranian sources, meanwhile, attributed the cancellation to new conditions imposed by the US side and existing disagreements over negotiation issues. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi later clarified that the talks would still proceed in Muscat, the capital of Oman. Beyond geopolitical developments, inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that, as of the week ending January 30, 2026, total US crude oil inventories—including strategic reserves—declined by 3.241 million barrels to 835.512 million barrels, while commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.455 million barrels to 420.299 million barrels. This Week’s Crude Oil Spot Market Review This week, the average international crude oil spot price rose week-on-week. In the Middle East crude market, trade sources indicated that Saudi Arabia is expected to lower the official selling price (OSP) for its Arab Light crude destined for Asia in March to a discount—its first such move since December 2020—reflecting ample domestic supply. A survey suggested the March OSP for Arab Light could decline by USD 0.50–0.85 per barrel versus February, settling at a discount of USD 0.20–0.55 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average. The OSPs for Arab Extra Light and Arab Medium crudes may each fall by USD 0.50–0.80 per barrel, while the OSP for Arab Heavy could drop by USD 0.60–0.80 per barrel. April-loading Qatar Al Shaheen crude quotations remained broadly flat versus Dubai and Upper Zakum crude, reflecting improved supply-demand fundamentals compared with March-loading cargoes; March-loading Al Shaheen cargoes faced relatively looser fundamentals. Some sellers holding March-loading Iraqi Basrah Medium crude have begun marketing those cargoes to Indian buyers, attracted by more competitive pricing—Asian buyers including India show strong preference for Basrah Medium shipments. In the Asia-Pacific spot crude market, Vietnam PV Oil’s supply of April-loading spot crude cargoes across all grades will decrease by one to two vessels versus March. Supplies of Thang Long and Rang Dong crudes will remain stable, whereas Chim Sao crude supply faces uncertainty. So far, Australia’s Woodside has sold one March-loading Australian Pluto condensate cargo to ExxonMobil. ExxonMobil operates petrochemical plants in both Singapore and Huizhou, ensuring steady demand for condensate. The spot differential for March-loading Australian Ichthys condensate remained largely stable; INPEX sold cargoes loading March 28–April 2 at a premium of USD 3 per barrel to prompt Brent to SK Energy.

「Crude Oil Research Report」Geopolitical Premium Fades; International Oil Prices Fall Back Below USD 100 per Barrel

Subsequently, US-Iran negotiations took place on the 11th at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital—but no agreement was reached. Shortly thereafter, Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, initiating interceptions of vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports. At the same time, however, Trump indicated that negotiations aimed at ending the Iran conflict might resume in Pakistan within the next two days. Sources revealed that the two sides are nearing consensus on a framework agreement to be presented during renewed talks, with informal channels helping bridge differences—particularly on key sticking points such as the duration of Iran’s suspension of nuclear activities and the removal of enriched nuclear material. Beyond geopolitics, supply-demand dynamics were significantly affected: the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted crude exports, forcing several regional producers to cut output. OPEC’s monthly oil market report noted that the organization’s member countries reduced their combined daily crude output by nearly 7.9 million barrels to 20.79 million barrels in March—a staggering 27% decline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) likewise highlighted, in its monthly report, that attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered the most severe oil supply disruption in history—cutting March supply by 10.1 million barrels per day. The IEA also sharply revised down its global oil supply-demand growth forecasts, lowering its 2026 demand growth projection by 80,000 barrels per day and expecting supply to shrink by 1.5 million barrels per day. This Week’s Crude Oil Spot Market Review This week, the average international crude oil spot price declined week-on-week. In the Middle East crude market, Kuwait raised the official selling price (OSP) for its export crude to Asia in May—from a premium of USD 0.50 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average in April—to a premium of USD 17 per barrel. Kuwait also increased the May OSP for its super-light crude from a USD 1.15-per-barrel premium in April to a USD 17-per-barrel premium. Moreover, informed sources indicated that Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to major Asian markets in May are expected to fall substantially. In the Asia crude spot market, traders are closely monitoring tender activity. Brunei Energy Services & Trading (BEST) will soon issue a tender for June-loading Malaysian Kimanis crude cargoes. INPEX is also expected to begin offering June-loading Australian Ichthys condensate cargoes shortly. Ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—and worsening shortages of crude oil, condensate, and petrochemical feedstocks across the Middle East—have prompted numerous buyers—including Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Australia, and ExxonMobil (USA)—to consider purchasing Ichthys condensate. Consequently, market participants widely anticipate that June-loading Ichthys condensate cargoes will trade at higher prices than May-loading ones. Market reports indicate that Vietnam’s Binh Son Refinery & Petrochemical Company confirmed it holds sufficient crude stocks to sustain operations through early July. The refinery, with a processing capacity of 130,000 barrels per day, will rely entirely on domestically produced crude to meet its operational needs. The company added that the refinery is scheduled for a major maintenance shutdown in 2027.

Vietnam refinery signs crude oil deal with ExxonMobil Asia Pacific

16 hours ago

Petrovietnam Refining and Petrochemical Corp signed a framework agreement with ExxonMobil Asia Pacific to secure crude oil supplies for its 130,000-barrel-per-day refinery, aiming to diversify feedstock sources.

reuters

2026-09-24

Vietnam refinery signs crude oil deal with ExxonMobil Asia Pacific

Vietnam refinery signs crude oil deal with ExxonMobil Asia Pacific

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